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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 149612 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-8

good explanation of RF.  Another "hypothetical" theory / system, like every other system of course but something useful to "consider" jst like 10+ other factors a good capper will employ.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

Afleet Alex,Sarava,Thunder Gulch ,ruler on ice
these are the only 4   0-0 Belmont winners without a
stamina chef in 5 generations. In fact they are the only 3
without a stamina chef going back thru 1940. 3 others
Jazil(RF),Point Given,Hansel going back thru 1970, have only one
stamina chef in 5 generations.those 3 and Touch Gold,Danzig Connection
that don't have a stamina chef on the Sire side.thats 8 winners
without a stamina chef on the sire side.add ruler on ice to this,union rags
-- 
0-0 stamina contender without a stam chef in 5 gen.1negative pt
Skippylongstocking, Mo Donegal, 
- 
only one stamina chef- 1negative pt
We The People, Nest, Rich Strike, Creative Minister
Golden Glider,Barber Road,
--
no stam chef-sire side- 1 negative
Skippylongstocking, Rich Strike,. Creative Minister,
Mo Donegal, Golden Glider 
- 
stam chef 4 gen------------------- 1 positive pt   
None
 -
dominate  classic pts -1 positive pt 
Nest, Creative Minister, Golden Glider,
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

Don't tell the Australian Horseman thats its a Hypothetical Theory , And a percentage of North American followers

I know the Guy from not werk, the other out fit that uses a AA etc for nicks  Porter Knocks it and others.

Same for LH , There Is no Scientific evidence, for it either doesn't mean there won't be. The Earth Is flat stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-8

My God! Will anyone from this field finish the race?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

LOL. A weak Pedigree field , remember what they do on the track performance trumps their pedigree.

they will finish 12 f , worse field might be 8 Bc Sprinters  trying 12f  , most would finish 12f.

There is some decent Performers that suggest they can get 12f. and some have decent splits. imo

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-8

smartyslew said...

Don't tell the Australian Horseman thats its a Hypothetical Theory

You mean like those who knew about Lonhro, all that New Zealand / Aussie in his sire side pedigree, 11 time G1 winner and Australian Horse of the Year?    And SIRED by another Austalian Horse of the Year (Octagonal, the Big O)...... and Big O's sire Zabeel, sire of 3 Melbourne Cup winners? 

No, I don't tell them anything, they are way ahead of the curve from what I've seen.  

Yet, Gronkowski went off at 8th longest odds in a 10-horse field  in his Belmont here,  despite that pedigree and after having won everything there is to win at Newmarket, Newbury, Kempton, Newcastle.  

BMS was Lookin at Lucky. 

It helps to keep a virtual stable at well known non-U.S. racing publication, for horses that Equibase and DRF don't allow you to do.   The cappers from over the pond are pretty savvy, I have learned a lot from them 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-8

smartyslew said...

LOL. A weak Pedigree field , remember what they do on the track performance trumps their pedigree.

Bingo.  

I use "the other stuff" for my longshots though. 
 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-9

Don't forget Lonhro has some of that good  Argentina blood  from his Dams side Thru Forli and Gronkowski was bred in the USA

and had 0-0 Stamina pts in his dosage and no Stam Chefs , but lot of his pedigree was outside the Usa ,and the dosage pts and Stam Chef is moot in my opinion . 

Many other elite horses that raced in the Tc series over the years fell in this category and you have to be aware of it.

Like Candy Ride and his Progeny, Pioneerof the Nile, AMerican Pharoah  Gun Runner, to name a few. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-9

Sometimes I use it for a tiebreaker, like this year, a rf, a stam chef on the Sire side, Classisity,

If 2 horses are close in splits, Early time, Last Q 25.40. last 1/8 faster than the the 1/8  from the Last Q time in a 9f race

and pretty even in the variants  and different scenarios puts them right there I can look at the RF or Stam Chef like Nijinsky CS

whos been there before i'll look at for my tiebreaker, Last Q time you have to take in where that started from. How far behind the lead.

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