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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 171221 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-7

Thanks Tex I appreciate it.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-8

EDIT Chart for race won by Speed Boat Beach in track record time. great out of the gate, difference imo

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?date=2022-09-10&track=DMR&country=USA&race=6&type=inc&print=on
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Edit- Bafferts 3.55 Million AE is scratched in today race 6, He has 3 in here,
NY) Hejazi 12d, 13c (8) Bernardini / Meda D'oro *3.55 mil  8-5 Baffert, Mike Smith #11 post

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=ent&print=on&country=USA&race=6&track=DMR&date=2022-09-10

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2 year olds racing 9/10 /22 from our  list, see how they do sprinting
or how somebody else runs good to add to our list.
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Del Mar race 6:MSW 5.5f Dirt $80,000, (Plus $24,000 – CBOIF - California Bred Owner Fund). For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 120 Lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $40,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred)(Purse $100,000 For Horses That Qualify For Maiden Dirt Bonus. I don't know How that works
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1 on our list from AE #11 (NY) Hejazi 12d, 13c (8) Bernardini / Meda D'oro *3.55 mil  8-5 Baffert, Mike Smith
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Gulfstream Park Race 5 MSW 2 year olds 1 mile 70 yards all weather track 7 entrys
edit both listed didn't fire.....
#1 Universal Hero 23b ,13c (8) Empire Maker/ Mda D'oro
#3 Hollywood Hero P/N 19c, 8 2s,Malibu Moon/ Tiznow 
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Kentucky Downs race 1:MSW 2 year olds 1 Mile (T)
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  • Edited September 11, 2022 11:41 am  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-9

9/12/22 edit to post results, No surprise top 2 Cave Rock-1st,Havenameltdown 2nd, Had the Highest prerace
Par speed Numbers, 3rd place Skinner, Bad trip in last, Had best last Late number 98, 4th place Newgate, filled
the Super, all 4 are on our list.
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9/11/22 2 year olds racing from our list (6) Edit to add Odds
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Del Mar Race 10 Del Mar Fururity stks G1  7f dirt, speed par 97 bris,9 entrants
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#1 Classical Cat 19c,Mendelssohn/ Not Bourbon (t) D'Amato  1-1   8-1
#2 Agency 9f, 13c (15) Bolt D 'Oro / Bernardini    Glatt    2-1-1, 2nd g3-98  12-1
#4 Skinner 9e Curlin/ Malibu Moon        Shireffs           1-0   check trip   8-1
#6 Newgate 3c Into Mischief /Majestic Warrior  Baffert  1-1    4-1
#7 Cave Rock 8h,Arrogate/ Bellamy Road        Baffert   1-1   6-5
#8 Havnameltdown P/N 4i, Uncaptured/ Put It Back  Baffert  2-2 g3-102, 4-1
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Speed Last Race :Par 97
104 Cave Rock 102 Havnameltdown 98 Agency 90 Classical Cat 89 Newgate 87 The Big Wam steadied
86 Pop d'Oro slow gate, 85 Mixto-MDN TRIP 75 Skinner-MDN
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Early last or only race:
112 Havnameltdown 110 Agency 107 Cave Rock 103 Newgate 102 The Big Wam 97 Classical Cat 94 Pop d'Oro 83 Mixto 68 Skinner 
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Late Last:
98 Skinner 94 Cave Rock 93 Mixto 88 Classical Cat 87 Havnameltdown 85 Pop d'Oro 84 Agency 80 Newgate 79 The Big Wam
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  • Edited September 12, 2022 12:58 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-12

2 year old BEYER leader board, 9/11/22 : Historical guidelines for a Derby Winner is a 92 beyer
or better in a race at 2 year olds. Last year  seems like we had 4 or 5 for the year.
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This year We have 9 times a 2 year old was awarded 92 Beyer or better in these early sprints
4 times triple digits. I think this is impressive looking by eyeballs, Some races by track Variants
Show Caution by raw time , That can be a mirage on a souped up track. Suggest do your own DD
The first thing I look at with the speed numbers looking for 2 turn prospects for this tool, who's
numbers are going up stretching compared to their sprints and or numbers down. 6f-7f-8f-8.5, 9f.
and any of them can take a jump up at any time.
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2-year-olds: male or female
through 09/11/2022

HORSE TRK DATE DIST BEYER FIGURE
Speed Boat Beach DMR 10 Sep 5 1/2F 104
Cave Rock DMR 13 Aug 6 1/2F 101
Munnys Gold MTH 17 Jun 5F 101
Hejazi DMR 10 Sep 5 1/2F 100
Echo Again SAR 20 Aug 6 1/2F 94
Tyler's Tribe PRM 27 Aug 6F 94
Chocolate Gelato SAR 14 Aug 6F 92
Forte SAR
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  • Edited September 12, 2022 12:16 pm  by  smartyslew
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Sep-14

Still find it hard to believe that Cave Rock's 2nd race scores a lower number than the first, especially with the competition in the second.  But I suppose coming up with those numbers are above my pay grade :)

As DM is the only track I visit in person each year, and having seen the races of the top colts listed, my eyes tell me they are special, and definitely worth following.  I'll be very interested in who races at Santa Anita American Pharoah Stakes on Oct. 8th.....

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-14

Edlt-The Winner #5 Curly Jack was one of the 4 on our list I said The winner will come from
Damons Mound and Echo Again Speed dual and tired, Jaces Road on our list finished 3rd.
Iroquois Saturday Churchill Downs starts the points preps for the Tc trail.
I don't know the odds yet. #3 Damon's Mound I really like his races for stretching out and I think
the first 4 listed in speed and Prime Power 3-9-5-6,have class over the other 5 and the winner is probably one of them
Numbers 3-5-6-9-8 are on our list, time to start sorting them out. Also I like #9 Echo Again. 3 or 9
will be the top 2 favorites and imo they have the best pedigrees for the classic Distance .
They will have to proof it on the track. If you play Exotics I think the 3 and 9 should be on your ticket.
edit I will put a win Wager on #3 Damon's Mound.
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None raced the distance 8.5 f, Raced 8f #1 Hayes Strike 1.39.4 76 bris ,#7 Honed 1.39.2  69 bris,
Speed last race :
99 Echo Again 93 Damon's Mound 93 Curly Jack 1st 90Jace's Road 82 -3rd Jin Tong 80 Confidence Game 76 Hayes Strike 68 Honed 63 Zaic
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Early last :
106 Damon's Mound 105 Curly Jack 103-1st Zaici 100Jace's Road 98-3rdJin Tong 98 Confidence Game 94 Echo Again 69 Honed 68 Hayes Strike
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Late last:
102 Echo Again 89 Hayes Strike 84Jace's Road 82-3rd Damon's Mound 81 Curly Jack 78-1stJin Tong 77 Honed 76 Confidence Game 42 Zaic
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9th race :
 Churchill Downs - Saturday, September 17th, 2022
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $300,000. Iroquois S. (Grade 3). FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. (04:55 PM) (9)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Hayes Strike E4   4th 2 C 122 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph McPeek Kenneth G.  homebred
2 Zaici  E5 2 R 122 Cohen David Courville Ricky
3 Damon's Mound P6 2 C 122 Saez Gabriel Lovell Michelle   homebred
4 Jin TongS4 2 C 122 Bejarano Rafael O'Neill Doug F.
5 Curly Jack EP8   1st 2 C 122 Morales Edgar Amoss Thomas M.
6 Jace's Road EP6   3rd
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  • Edited September 18, 2022 11:40 am  by  smartyslew
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Sep-15

I'm expecting Echo Again to run huge and be the favorite for the BC Juvy.....

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-15

Its only September we have a long way to go, when a 2 yr old starts stretching out ,I look for speed numbers

to compare to their sprints , most two turn types speed numbers stretching out equal or are better than there sprint numbers

of course there are exceptions to that and by the time March rolls around we will have a better idea. Its something 

I look at and note for all 2 yr olds I'm Interested in. Its easy to look at and doesn't take much time,.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-15

I don't know if he is that good yet, Many good looking prospects this early, I am a big Gun Runner fan,

Damon's Mound is another good looking prospect in this race I like a lot. Beta Bob in his 2 year old talk 

this week mentioned him at the top of 2 yr olds owned by somebody else that look real good. 

I see some gurus pick #6 Jaces Road , Quality Road/Silver Deputy :  Geroux/ Cox as the value of the Single digit

horse's , 6-1, L don't know where they got that number from..

  • Edited September 15, 2022 4:22 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-15

Edit My top Pick #4 Shoplifter finished 2nd to the Winner Fun And Fiesty, #5 Grand Love Finished 3rd.
I got Money Back I decided Across The Board on Shoplifter.
 
--
Field of 12, I picked 5 out who look like 2 turn prospects or Route Runners,
Justa Warrior The Favorite #11 4-1 by Justify Jockey is Suspect stalked 3 wide, 5 wide top of the stretch
Got up and won on her own @7f ....drew post 11 and I like Her here in my Exotics, I love Justify fillys
can't bet the Win in this spot. # 5 Grand Love 9-2, GunRunner I'll use, #9 Jet Setting 8-1, # 4 Shoplifter 15-1
Has the best pedigree for later , and I can't leave her off my ticket, # 8 Need Some Money 20-1, looks like a Router.
I'm Not Familiar with Her Trainer, She won a mile race in Her last at Ellis.
Ill play these 5 in my exotics from a field of 12, Is That 41,7% of the field, If you like to spread out
underneath use 10, 12 an Arrogate in a bad PP, 7,  #3 Naughty Gal I'm Leaving off, last 3 races going 
in the wrong direction. 10 entrants are E and EP types. # 8 is a S 0, #10 P5
Edit :I like the value of #4 Shoplifter 15-1 , $20 Win
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Back Speed : 86 Naughty Gal 86 Shoplifter 83-2nd Justa Warrior 79 Southlawn 77Jet Setting 
76 Outofnothingatall 75 Friendlypersuasion 74 Kiss Me On Oconee 73 Need Some Money
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Speed Last :88 Grand Love -3rd87 Fun and Feisty-1st 83Justa Warrior 79 Southlawn 77Jet Setting 76 Outofnothingatall 75 Shoplifter-2nd 75 Friendlypersuasion 73 Kiss Me On Oconee 73 Need Some Money 70 Boss Lady Bailey 59 Naughty Gal
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11th race- Churchill Downs - Saturday, September 17th, 2022 G3, 12 entrants
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $300,000. Pocahontas S. (Grade 3). FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD. (05:58 PM) (12)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Boss Lady Bailey EP6      4th 2 F 122 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph Ortiz John Alexander  12-1
2 Kiss Me On Oconee E4 2 F 122 Morales Edgar Amoss Thomas M.  20-1
3 Naughty Gal  E8 2 F 122 Santana, Jr. Ricardo Lukas D. Wayne  5-1
4x
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  • Edited September 18, 2022 12:38 pm  by  smartyslew
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