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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 172687 views.
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Sep-21

Two MTR juvies that I’ve been following, are entered to debut Saturday. Only one is likely to start. Rutherford, a $275k colt trained by Clement is slated to debut in a turf sprint.

The other is the aforementioned Devil’s Red, trained by Doug O’Neil. He is an also eligible, and probably will have to scratch from his dirt sprint. At any rate, I’m glad to see that he is ready to go, and should debut soon. Both colts have been working well!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-22

3 YEAR OLD RACE  : G1 Edit What Worked

#7 Taiba and #5 Cyberknife will be tough at 9f look at there distance record below
and Both bests are g1. Skippys  107 on fast, has best mud 101 g3,We The People 108,100 mud (Speed)g3
Zandon 106, Tawny Port 105 both g2. Best last Q Taiba 23.93-104 bris, Best bris late Tawny Port-111 24.78
For now I'm Undecided I'll look at Taiba, Cyberknife, Zandon(Lasix free)We The People: On The Lead, Back Speed,
Tawny Port (late) Skippy...... for a fast track. I'll use these 6 in my Exotics, Value plays : We The People 12-1, Skippy 10-1 for Mud
Zandon 6-1 or higher imo. Red Flags: Simplification bled, Icy Storm, Numbers well below Par,No gr. Races, B Dawg BIG move in class,
Naval Aviator Claimed twice Big move up. 
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12th race Parx Racing - Saturday, September 24th, 2022; PAR 104, * Top Weight
STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,000,000. Pennsylvania Derby (Grade 1). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. (06:10 PM) (11)
PP Horse                                   distance-best bris A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer                    
1 Zandon(S3)  5-1                 4-1-2-1    106 g2   2nd 3 C 126* Rosario Joel Brown Chad C.
2 Icy Storm(P5) 30-1            0-0 3 C 120 Laprida Jeremy Flores-Coba Felix L.
3 B Dawk (E5)20-1              0-0 3 C 120 Pennington Frankie O'Neill Doug F.
4 Skippylong.(EP5) 10-1     3-2-0-1   107 g2 3 C 124 Gonzalez Edwin Joseph, Jr. Saffie A.
5 Cyberknife (EP5) 3-1        2-2        104  g1   3rd 3 C 126* Geroux Florent Cox Brad H.
6 We The People (E8) 12-1  3-1-1-0  108 g3 3 C 124 Prat Flavien Brisset Rodolphe
7 Tawny Port (P3) 6-1         4-1-1-1  105 g2
...[Message truncated]
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  • Edited September 24, 2022 7:56 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-26

Gun Runner's 5   stakes Winners in one day and 2 others ITM Saturday 9/24/22
It must make History of some kind dontcha think. 5 hour span time.
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Taiba 1st $1,000,000  Grade 1 Penn. Derby   6:12
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Society(f) 1st $1,000,000  Grade 1 Cotillion   5.32
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Gunite 1st  $275,000 Harrods Creek Stakes  9.40
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Echo Zulu 1st  $275,000 Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes   10:12
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Sixtythreecaliber 1st $160,000 Seneca Over Night Stakes  9:06
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Cyberknife  3rd $1,000,000 Grade 1 Penn Derby  6:12
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Runninsonofagun 3rd $300,000 Grade 2 Gallant Bob Stakes  4:55
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-28

Edit # 5 Tres Soles By Justify won by neck#9 Reagan 2nd, 3rd Mackman  1.10.62
9/29/22 Churchill Downs  race 6 : MSW 2 year olds 6f Dirt  12 entrants +2 AE
Well bred Prospects  in This race I haven't covered and one I have covered #2
I'm sure I will add at least one to our list or more after the race. Roy H full brother Devils Red. on the list
#2Devils Red rf 13e,1x(15)13c(8)2d(7)More Than Ready/Elusive Quality 1^  8-1
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Check out the sires and the Nicks on paper a lot to like, Interesting to see the Outcome
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1 - Uncle Mo Meadow Breeze , by Meadowlake ; 2 - More Than Ready Elusive Diva , by Elusive Quality ; 3 - Tale of Verve Not Java (FR) , by Not Bourbon ; 4 - Tapwrit Bern Obsession , by Bernstein ; 5 - Justify Chocolate Souffle , by Tapit ; 6 - Candy Ride (ARG) Chiffon , by Malibu Moon ; 7 - Flatter Ire , by Political Force ; 8 - Gun Runner She's All Scat , by Scat Daddy ; 9 - Accelerate History Supreme , by Speightstown ; 10 - West Coast Its a Date , by Dominus ; 11 - Union Rags Silverpocketsfull , by Indian Charlie ; 12 - Gun Runner Sapucai , by Indian Charlie ; 13 - Bee Jersey Ruth's Proof , by Dixie Union 
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-29

Rich Strike is the only 3 year old in this race G2 , 2 4c,2 5H, 1 6H See How he does against elders. 2nd
I Like Art Collector for the win, Happy Saver for 2nd, I don't have the odds yet.
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# FAVORITES Races 47 Win% 43% ITM% 87% $2ROI -0.24 Average Field Size 7.4 Median $2 Win Payoff $6.60 % Winners < 5/1 83% % Winners >=5/1 < 10/1 11% % Winners > 10/1 6% Track Bias Stat
Winner was the Favorite  HoT Rod Charley pd $4.66
PAR: 103, Happy Saver 110, Hot Rod Charlie 110-1ST, Rich Strike 104, 2nd.
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10 th  Churchill Downs - Saturday, October 1st, 2022
STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $500,000. Lukas Classic S. (Grade 2). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. (05:26 PM) (6)
PP Horse A/S Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 King Fury P2       Dis  4 0 - 1 - 1 4 C 121 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph  1 g3 win McPeek Kenneth G.  14% gr winner
2 Art Collector E7     Dis 8- 7 - 0 - 0  5 H 125 Saez Luis     3g wins 1-1,2-2 Mott William I. 18% gr winner
3 Happy Saver  P3     Dis  4 -2 - 2 - 0 5 H 121 Velazquez John R.  Life: 11- 5 - 5 - 1 , 1g win, 5 g 2nd Pletcher Todd A.16% gr winneer
4 Rich Strike  S 0    CD 2- 2 - 0 - 0 , L free 3 C 122 Leon Sonny  1 g1 win Reed Eric R.  1-5 gr races
5 Hot Rod Charlie    E6  Dis  3- 1 - 0 - 1 4 C 125 Gaffalione Tyler   3 g wins O'Neill Doug F. 6% gr. winner
6 Chess Chief  P3     CD 12- 0 - 2 - 1 6 H 121 Gutierrez Reylu  0 g wins Stewart Dallas  6% gr winner
 
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back speed :110 Art Collector 110 Happy Saver 110 Hot Rod Charlie-1st 104 Rich Strike -2nd95 Chess Chief 90 King Fury
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Speed Last Race:110 Happy Saver 110 Hot Rod Charlie-WON 104 Rich Strike  2ND 96 Art Collector 90 King Fury 88 Chess Chief
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-29

6 well bred 2 year old entrants, None have raced at A, None have raced a Route Race,2-4-5-6 raced 7f
4 are on our list 1 Andiamo A Firenze, 3 Verifying ,4 Champions Dream, 5 Blazing Sevens,

Watch their replays, I like the looks of the 2 Justify's #3 Verifying and # 4 Champions Dream especially him

I like his action beautiful rhythm in his only race 7f. Edit Results

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10th race Belmont At The Big A - Saturday, October 1st, 2022, 

STAKES. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $500,000. Champagne S. (Grade 1). FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. (05:45 PM) (6)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1x Andiamo A Firenzerf, 2f, (10) Speightstown / Langfuhr  4th. 2 C 122 Lezcano Jose Breen Kelly J.     6-1
2 Top Recruit  2n Midshipman/ Afleet Alex 2 C 122 Ortiz, Jr. Irad Maker Michael J.  5-1
3x Verifying 21 Justify/ Repent  775,000  2nd 2 C 122 Rosario Joel Cox Brad H.    9-5
4x Champions Dream rf, 7a,2f(10)8c(6)Justify/Tapit 2 C 122 Franco Manuel Gargan Danny  5-1
5x Blazing Sevens   4j (8) Good Magic/ Warriors Reward  WON 1st 2 C 122 Prat Flavien Brown Chad C.  8-1
6 Gulfport  4-e} DP = 2-12-2-0-0 (16) DI = 15.00   CD = 1.00 ,Sprinter  3rd 2 C 122 Ortiz Jose L. Asmussen Steven M  2-1

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  • Edited October 5, 2022 12:31 am  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-29

Races with Justify running in them and other 1st crop  sires of interest.
9/29/22
Churchill Downs 
Race 6 #5  Tres Soles  4-1 WON 5.22 3.98 3.08,   6f 1.10.62
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9/30/22
Churchill Downs 
Race 7  #4 Justifying   3-1: 2nd Place  PL 4.96 SH  3.92
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10/1/22
At The Big A 
Race 2 : #5 Justifiable Belle     7-2  5th tired
Race 8  #5 I'm Just Kidding  20-1  5th
Race 10 #3 Verifying 2-1 2nd. ,#4 Champions Dream 8.5 -1
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Churchill
Race 5: #1 O Gangster  100-1   7th
Race 7: #10 Pappy Wolfe  62-1  9th
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10/2/22
Churchill
Race 7 : #6 Alpha Bella  4-1   2nd.  
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Longchamp
Race 2 : 1 Mile Turf g1  Stks
#3 Aspen Grove(IRE) f   12-1 Justify/ More Than Ready   7th
Won last 66-1. Unbeaten Frankel in the race.
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  • Edited October 5, 2022 12:56 am  by  smartyslew
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Sep-30

Justify colt ran well in the MSW at CD yesterday. Roy H’s full brother was disappointing! The two highly touted MTR’s; Don Corleone and Devils Red, have run poorly in their debuts. Hopefully they’ll do better next time out.

  • Edited September 30, 2022 1:49 pm  by  RAESFAN
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-1

Devils Red the chart said he was playing bumper cars and I couldn't find, the Video wasn't very good.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-1

I saw that. Don’t know if that could explain his listless performance. Hope he gets another shot on the dirt!

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