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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 188389 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-3

The X denotes the entrants I like, 1 other #9 Nagirroc trained by Graham Motion has only
raced short sprints and imo worth a look.  I'm Tilting Towards #1 Victoria Road 8-1 and he has raced at 9f
and this might be short for him. #4 Silver Knott 3-1 a presser would be my pick, maybe the odds will go up,
If I play Exotics I will use the X entrants. I listed the track conditions, the Runup, Last Q time, graded wins
or wins, bris speed, odds, rail position if noted ,and running style not bris fake numbers for young horses.
IT^S ONLY A Mile race and the winner could come from a first time mile runner.
-
10th  Keeneland - Friday, November 4th, 2022
STAKES. 1 Mile Turf. Purse $1,000,000. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1). FOR COLTS AND GELDINGS, TWO-YEARS-OLD. Weight: 122 lbs.; $15,000 to pre-enter, $15,000 to enter, with guaranteed $1 million purse including travel awards of which 52% to the owner of the winner, 17% to second, 9% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth, 2%to sixth, 1% to seventh, 1% to eighth, 1% to ninth, 1% to tenth; plus travel awards to starters not based in Kentucky. The maximum number of starters is fourteen with four also eligibles. In the event that this race is taken off the turf it will be contested at One Mile on the main track. (05:40 PM) (14)
PP Horse A/S Wgt Jockey Trainer
1x Victoria Road (IRE) 2 C 122 Moore Ryan L.  g3W O'Brien Aidan P. 8-1           RF*   gd
2x Packs A Wahlop
run up160 ft
122 Smith Mike E. 2 g3W Mullins Jeff   6-1  speed  91  rf * 23.40  fm
3 Curly Larry And Mo
Run up 92 ft
2 C 122 Arrieta Francisco Caramori Caio  30-1   speed  74  23.55 fm
4x Silver Knott (GB) 2 C 122 Buick William T. g3W Appleby Charles 3-1   press  gd
...[Message truncated]
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DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

Nov-3

ALL..Reminder ...that the paid handicappers pick a sole on top Winner and rarely no more than two more underneath.  They never pick a half dozen of the field and; say hey;  it could likely be at the end of race..Any one of these six runners 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-3

Shame on me for not being a paid capper and doing free stuff imo, narrowing the field down.

They talk about free squares and all and spreading in their pick 3's,4''s,5's,6's, and few pick a free square 

in a 14 horse field of 2 year olds on turf if at all. I have many more races to cap and one piece of the puzzle 

done for the pick players. Somebody likes it with the views this thread gets.

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

Nov-3

Yep...and as you have always insisted....picks have to be posted on the site before the race...no ex post facto resultants .  No matter what or it doesn't count..as you call it red boarding.....on the internet. 

Six is a bit deep IMHO 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-3

imo that is not a pick that I posted. Show me a redboard I did .

Tex calls the redboarding !

  • Edited November 3, 2022 5:20 pm  by  smartyslew
pianot

From: pianot

Nov-3

Smarty- would you be kind enough to use the breeder cup thread?

Appreciate you input.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-4

Race 10Keeneland - Friday, November 4th, 2022 on message 1352 Juv Turf data on the PP and Charts
List the runup for their last race s/be considered for this mile race in my opinion.

Runup to the start  Ok the turf is firm today

11 Reckoning Forcerunup 214 ft  fm

2 Packs a Wahlop  160 ft  fm

5 Battle Of Normandy 100 ft  gd  rail out 27 ft

6 And The Winner Is 100 ft  fm

7 Really Good  100 ft fm

3 Curly Larry Moe  92 ft  fm

8 I'm Very Busy 28 ft  yl

13 Major Dude 28 ft  yl

10 Webslinger 24 ft fm

1 Victoria Road  ?   gd

4 Silver Knott  ?     gd

Didn't do the 6f runners you can look them up on their charts

Message 1352 has the bris speed numbers and last Q.

  • Edited November 4, 2022 12:49 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-4

Keeneland - Friday, November 4th, 2022 9th race BC Juvenile 8.5 f
--
1Hurricane J2 C122Talamo JosephLobo Paulo H. runup 65 ft 6f  85
2Congruent2 C122Ortiz Jose L.Sano Antonio  runup 20 ft  8f off T slop  88
3Cave Rock2 C122Hernandez Juan J.Baffert Bob  runup *80 ft  8.5 g1 107
splits for his race 1 16 224 464 1.11 1 43 3 wired
4Forte2 C122Ortiz, Jr. IradPletcher Todd A.  Forte runup 50 ft 8.5 g1 96
splits for his race 1 16 224(7) 461(5) 1.11 3(1) 1 44 3 (1)
5Verifying2 C122Rosario JoelCox Brad H.  runup 50 ft 8f g1 82
6Blazing Sevens2 C122Prat FlavienBrown Chad C. run up 50 ft  8f g1 86
7Wound Up2 C122Gutierrez MarioMcCarthy Michael W. turfer runup 64 ft 2 back 8f 74
8Lost Ark2 C122Saez LuisPletcher Todd A. runup 50ft 8.5f g1 checked hard  85
9Curly Jack2 C122Morales EdgarAmoss Thomas M. runup 50 ft 8.5f g3  86
10National Treasure2 Cb122Velazquez John R.Baffert  runup *80 ft 8.5 g1  101
see Cave Rock splits 2nd all of the way, finished  5 1/4 behind.
--
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-4

10th  Keeneland - Friday, November 4th, 2022  8f turf

 $ 20 win #1 Victoria Road 6-1, Thats a Pick , can't bet the 4 at  9-5, hope the pick likes firm turf

I will use the 2; 5-1,4; 9-5, 6 ;7-1,  11; 43-1,  13; 19-1 in my exotics after I see How the Turf is playing.

Edit 11/6 to correct the name of my pick S/BE Victoria Road ,not Victoria Park
# 1 Victoria Road did win pd $13.14, 2nd #4 Silver Knott, 3rd & 4th not mine listed 

I really liked the top 2. Fonishers

  • Edited November 16, 2022 12:35 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-4

smartyslew said:

Keeneland - Friday, November 4th, 2022 9th race BC Juvenile 8.5 f --dirt

I'm picking #4 Forte to win and using  3- Cave Rock, 8 Lost Ark, 5 Verifying,10 National Treasure

and #9 Curly Jack in my Tri's and Supers and picks .

Edit 11/16 Forte did win and pd $12.40,won by 1 1/2 lengths, Cave Rock the big favorite 2nd
3rd National Treasure,4th Blazing Sevens, Let me know if this helped anybody or follow my thread.

  • Edited November 16, 2022 12:16 pm  by  smartyslew
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