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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 185931 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-5

The last 3 Juvenile winners Forte-22, Corniche-21, Essential Quality-20
and 4 of the last 5 winners Game Winner-18 all have the same 
Tail Female family branch1x
with the Transcendent Classification BP-T Conduit Mare Profile (CMP) La Troienne 1x
-
BP Classification tf family suggests carry your speed a distance of ground.
All with different nicks (Sire/ Bms) and on 3 different track surfaces.
----
2022 FORTE21 VIOLENCE5 QUEEN CAROLINE5 TODD A. PLETCHER 1-x KEENELAND, KY
2021 CORNICHE22 QUALITY ROAD WASTED TEARS ROBERT A. BAFFERT 1-x DEL MAR, CA
2020
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Nov-9

Best performance on Friday, may have been the Brad Cox trained son of Into Mischief, Giant Mischief. He defeated the Baffert colt, Arabian Lion. They battled down the stretch, leaving the rest of the field 17 lengths behind!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-10

Second race for both. Cox was sneaky with Giant Mischief, 9/22/22 1st race at Horseshoe 5.5 f dirt 1.04.63 Awarded E 69,E 101 here

Bumped hard start 6 lengths behind at the first call, checked 9/16 had to alter course, ran last half furlong in 5.43 for the win.

MSW $30,000  $475,000 purchase, Baffert did his usual at Santa Anita his horse 6f 1.09 change.

Cox has a string at Horseshoe , suggest looking for 2 year olds of his there!

reminds me of East Coast trainers slip 2 year olds into  Parx and Delaware, many times on a Monday

when its dark at top tracks, Fair Hill farm Workers like Graham Motion string can show up anywhere

Mostly at Laurel Park.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Nov-11

princeofdoc said...

I'm expecting Echo Again to run huge and be the favorite for the BC Juvy.....

I had him in one of my watches, ran 7th in the Iroquois and no works since late October.  Dunno what Asmussen is dong with him but pretty sure I will see him at Oaklawn soon in person.  

2 I am watching


Signator  that McGaughey has 
https://www.pedigreequery.com/signator2
Although the seeking the gold bms is a problem for me, but interesting that McGaughey trained Seeking the Gold.
Although Blame did okay in the BC Classic and Take Charge Brandi did well in the BC Juvie Fillies.    I just would not use this one in KY Derby except bottom of a super, they have good speed for the prep races though but in KY Derby usually turn out like Pants on Fire type.?

 

and 

King Elvis that Attfield has
https://www.pedigreequery.com/king+elvis3

This one I like a lot.  Esp. since canadian track horses often get ignored and/or don't make any lists. 



Sometimes we watch a horse we think will do something, like I "was" watching Above Suspicion at one point, the filly Mandella has, Farish breeding in 2019 and she turned out quite poorly, but I thought that when I looked at the pedigree anyway.   No idea what he is doing with her now-----working, but i think this one will remain in CALI unless he can turn her around. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-11

You must not bet turf Horses very often, the 6 I looked at on message 1352 is the message you must have meant to
 address to me  and not message 1350.  I got emails asking me what you meant ,didn't make sense on message 1350.

I listed 6 horses of the 14 entered a day before the race on 1352 not knowing turf conditions with a mix of  gd, fm, yl. etc.

Race day it was a fm track and some Euros gd race types can run ok on fm.

Message 1358 I listed The Runups,
Message 1360  I listed my Pick and bet

10th  Keeneland - Friday, November 4th, 2022  8f turf

 $ 20 win #1 Victoria Park 6-1, Thats a Pick , can't bet the 4 at  9-5, hope the pick likes firm turf

He and 2nd place #4 Silver Knott had the shortest runups 2 of the tools I used to bet the Winner.

---

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Nov-12

Mandela raced Beholder's baby girl today. She showed early speed, then stopped. Her mom did not win first out either, and Mandela said that she was a bit "fat", indicating that she wasn't completely fit.

Also, did you know that Flightline has a juvenile full brother named Olivier? He seems to have similar leg problems!

  • Edited November 12, 2022 6:26 pm  by  RAESFAN
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-12

I didn't know about Olivier and looked him up, Thanks. Stopped works in September until then his works were

positive. I don't know the Similar Leg problems Story. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-16

2-year-olds: male or female Beyer Leaderboard thru 11/15/22
More than a Mile ( Not this good last year)
--
Cave Rock          SA: 1 1/16 Mile   104  Beyer
Forte                  Kee 1 1/16            100
Cave Rock         Kee  1 1/16             99
Nat. Treasure    Sa    1 1/16              97
Nat Treasure     Kee 1 1/16              95
Blazing Sevens  Kee 1 1/16              93
Forte                  Kee 1 1/16              92
Hejazi                SA   1 1/16              91
Loggins             Kee  1 1/16              91
--
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-18

Edit 11/25 bottom Paragraph.
2 year olds on our list racing 11/19/22
Churchill Downs race 6: 6.5 f MSW Dirt 
#3 Reagan Edit: Backed Up Something went wrong
-
Laurel Park Race 8 : 6f dirt.. all Opt CL $62,500
----
11/20/22
Del Mar Race 8: 7f Dirt Bob Hope Stks : 3 Bafferts in the race. 2 scratches, 5 runners
#2 Havnameltdown  won
--
Woodbine Race 6 : 8.5f AW MSW  Cancelled weather
#1 Whitewalker  May Foal Belmont Prospect, Takes awhile to get going 
stepping stone for later IMO
#2 King Elvis  Attfield trainer Win possible 
--
Edit Whitewalker raced Today At woodbine 11/25 race 6 finished 2nd , still on my Belmont List still takes awhile
to get going 3 wide whole race 2nd 1 length back , 2nd best to Curlins Ghost on the All weather.
King Elvis wasn't in this race 8.5f is like 6f for Whitewalker pedigree IMO.
  • Edited November 25, 2022 6:38 pm  by  smartyslew
Msg 1770.1372 deleted
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