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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 256966 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-22

On Our List Racing in The Rebel:5 entrants:1 Verifying, 4 Gun Pilot, 5 Giant Mischief,6 Reincarnate
7 Confidence Game, 1st 3 on our list has raced with L Bummer.
11th Race Oaklawn Park - Saturday, February 25th, 2023  Par 98
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,000,000. Rebel S. (Grade 2). THREE YEAR OLDS.                        last Q 25.40<                                  9 have derby nicks, 2 don't Talladega, Frosted Departure, : That is getting tougher
PP Horse                            last 3 races last 1st Wgt Jockey Trainer     Runup
1L Verifying E5               95L +9  86 G1   82 G1 122` Geroux Florent  25.29 8f Cox Brad H.60
2 Powerful EP5            89 +b     61  G1   85 MDN   117 Castillo Isaac Asmussen Steven M.45
3 Red Route One P2    90 G2 sys  82 G2    77 G3  117 Torres Cristian A. 24.93 8.5f Asmussen Steven M. 60
4L Gun Pilot EP 6    rf     90 L N2   89 L 1x    88 MDN 122` Santana, Jr. Ricardo 25.39  8f Asmussen Steven M.60
5L Giant Mischief S4     90L-S      99           70L 117 Ortiz, Jr. Irad  Troubled trip Cox Brad H.50
6 Reincarnate EP6       98 G3      88 MDN   92 Mdn                122` Velazquez John R. Yakteen Tim  180 * 
7 Confidence Game E5 87 G3    92 OC     82 OC 119 Graham James Desormeaux J. Keith 50
8L Talladega  E4            88 L MN  75L mdn  78 117 Prat Flavien
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
  • Edited February 25, 2023 12:41 am  by  smartyslew
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Feb-23

princeofdoc said...

I love how you find these off radar types

It's what I do but thanks for noticing.  I suck at about a gazillion other aspects of horse racing, but being a longshot player I like to ferret out the ones that nobody has on their lists.   I personally don't think he will be ripe for the Derby gate, but maybe preakness, I remember how last year I had figured out Creative Minister, who wasn't on anyone's list and it was only around February----   Just because I saw him in a maiden race and he impressed me.   He had to be supplemented by the time the Preakness came around in May, so of course, that put him on the radar right quick  (which disappointed me since I thought I'd have a little gold mine all to myself).

So, one that fit with that same idea, and didn't see on any lists I thought I'd share is Uncle Mo's  Scoobie Quando 

 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-23

He's a jewel for the BC turf with what you mentioned and 5 or 6 of Northern Dancer Sons strong BMS line

Strong up the middle. 77% 8 generation Female linebreeding from The world for foundation

not many in North America. Motion or Clemente .

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Feb-23

smartyslew said...

He's a jewel for the BC turf with what you mentioned and 5 or 6 of Northern Dancer Sons strong BMS line

Strong up the middle. 77% 8 generation Female linebreeding from The world for foundation

not many in North America. Motion or Clemente .

Thank you for this, smartyslew.   I really had no idea what to do with him but I wasn't gonna let him go.   Your suggestions sounds right to me!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-23

I never heard of that trainer before. Last race finished 2nd to a Cox /Godolphin I think Geroux was up

at a short distance for what both are bred for at Turfway AW

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Feb-23

Paolo Lobo.......he gets all that nice South American blood most of the time, you are likely to see his horses be like (CHI) or (ARG) and such.  But yes, usually only runs at TP and AW.   Remember Gayego?  (won the AR Derby in 2005).   That was his horse.    He had IVAR(BRZ),  Imperador(ARG)......Irwin has nothing on him when it comes to going to South America for new blood. 

AR Derby new schedule is just so perfectly placed this year, exactly 3 weeks before the KY Derby.    Not too far out, not too close up.  Genius. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-23

He had a string at Southern Cal years ago and very savvy and every race he's in today he's scary

Lot of Respect for him.

Gerh

From: Gerh

Feb-23

Interesting to see Acatenango (Animal Kingdom’s damsire) in the pedigree 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-23

In the Rebel I will do one box of the 4 Lasix free entrants  2 Powerful, 3 Red Route One, 6 Reincarnate
7 Confidence Game: Rain Or Shine 

I'll wait to see what the track Conditions look like before I make a bet Saturday.

Tough field.. On Paper.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-25

   

 I edit and put more angles for the Rebel on Message 1648 this thread
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
best pedigree mud stats Sire only-----------    Sire        BMS AWD                                                                     
 Confidence Game   Starts   1913   % 21         7.1         7.5  
Giant Mischief                        1836   % 19         6.8         7.1
Talladega                                1836   % 19          6.8         6.4
Frosted Departure                 278    %  15         6.6         7.0
Powerful                                  146    %  20         7.1         7.5
Gun Pilot                                  121    %  22         7.3         7.6
Red Route One                       121    %   22         7.3         7.6
Reincarnate                              26     %  23          6.7         7.2
Verifying                                    19     %  21          6.8         7.3
Bourbon Bash                          11     %  18          7.2         6.7
Event Detail                              11     %   18         7.2         6.8
---------

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

  • Edited February 25, 2023 1:56 am  by  smartyslew
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