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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 259508 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-26

Thank you, Congrats to you, glad you had a good day, my data had a good day

Maybe it helped  others like it helped me ,lot of it worked for this field.

I was focused on numbers 1 thru 7, 8-11 I tossed,  then 2 of the 1-7 I had at the bottom
Reincarnation Wasn't on my win because of his 180 ft Runup in a Mile race but I used him
the first 2 raced 8.5 in last, 3rd and 4th 8f  in last.

of my spread. It doesn't get any better than that. The Winner received a 94 Beyer, so time will tell

how good this group  is and Red Route One was 19 1/2 lengths behind and was still Last after 6f
and was  One of 3 that hit the Historical Guideline I use for The Last Quarter  previous race of 25.40

or faster.24.93 the fastest of the 3, Verifying one of the 3 came in 4th, and Gun Pilot didn't hit the board.

The first 3 were the Fastest entered at the Distance of the race and all 3 are Lasix free.

A lot to like looking at the data.imo

  • Edited February 26, 2023 3:07 pm  by  smartyslew
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Feb-27

Not giving up  on Gun Pilot, I think like Creative Minister he may make a  good Preakness horse, unless Asmussen can do something with him before that.  I just like him. (in the way I liked Jackson Bend, too, just some horses creep into your heart).    He is still just very very green.   Red Route One has a ton more races than he did, under his belt.  

BTW, Zito is racing at Oaklawn, he's brought a few last year and this year, he just won a race recently.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-27

We saw What Graham Motion did with Animal Kingdom, We can't expect that high bar 

with this horse, still might be good on dirt with this breeding.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-27

How the data did in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn 2/25/23 race 11
What worked in the Rebel and what didn't work. 
Message 1648 this thread rebel runup 60 ft.
----
On our list, I thought I put 2nd place Red Route One on our list
before the the Race, He's on it for sure now.
#7 Confidence Game 1st, Reincarnate 3rd,Verifying 4th, 
-----
Last Quarter  25.40 or better in last race : ITM ,3 Qualifiers , Usually Mid pack, Closer types
#3 Red Route One : 2nd place 24.93 in Last, 23.54 in the Rebel from last 19 1/2 lengths back
#1 Veryfing 4th place 25.29 in last , troubled trip in the rebel,  Gun Pilot OTM
------- 
2 in the race didn't have Sire line/ BMS line winning Derby Nicks, 9 did that's strong for one race
Talladega -last(11),Frosted Departure 8th place both didn't
-----
Runup for the Lead in Last race. and Position early in the Rebel  Powerful 1st -45 ft, Frosted Departure 2nd 60 ft, Verifying 3rd  60 ftGiant Mischief 4th 50 ft, Reincarnate 9th 180 ft**
--------
Runup For the Win : Confidence Game 1st 50 ft, 2nd place; Red Route One 60 ft, 3rd Reincarnate 180 Ft*
4th place Veryfing 60 ft.
------
WGT : 1st 119, 2nd 117, 3rd 122, 4th 122, 5th 117 Bourbon Bash, 6th 117 Giant Mischief
7th Gun Pilot 122, 8th Frosted Departure 117, 9th Powerful 117, 10th  Event Detail 117 Last 117
----
Horse Classification 1st  E5 rated look for a change,  2nd P2  ok, 3rd EP6, 4th E5, 5th EP5,
6th S4, 7th EP6, 8th EP6 might change to E, 9th EP5, E next, 10th P2, 11th E4
-----
Lasix free:1st Confidence Game, 2nd Red Route One, 3rd Reincarnate,9th Powerful 77-1,
----------
Classification Last Race 1st, G3, 2nd G2 sys, 3rd g3, 4th allOC, g1 before,5t OC, 6th s, 7th N2
8th g3 sys, 9th G1, 10th AW, 11th MDN
-------- 
Races on the Improve :2nd Red Route One L free 77-82-90, only one
------
Best speed at distance; Confidence Game 92-1st, Reincarnate 92-3rd, Red Route One 90 -2nd
--------
Class Rating: ???  Verifying 118.9-4th Reincarnate 117.5-3rd Giant Mischief 117.2 6th
Prime Power: Giant Mischief 142.0-WHY? Verifying 139.2-4th  Confidence Game 133.9-WON
-----
Speed Last Race:98 Reincarnate 3rd 95 Verifying-4th 90 Red Route One 2nd 90 Gun Pilot 90 Giant Mischief 89 Powerful 88 Talladega 88 Bourbon Bash 88 Frosted Departure 87 Confidence Game- WON 85 Event D
---
Back speed: 99 Giant Mischief .  98 Reincarnate-3rd 95 - Verifying -4th 92- Confidence Game WON 90 Gun Pilot  89 Event Detail 88 Red Route One -2nd 88 Bourbon Bash 75 Talladega 69 Frosted Departure 61 Powerful 
--------------
early pace last:104* Reincarnate 3rd  102 Confidence Game WON 100 Powerful 95 Talladega 94 Event Detail 94 Frosted Departure 91 Verifying-4TH 90 Giant Mischief 79 Bourbon Bash 78 Red Route One 2nd 78 Gun Pilot : * Runup 180 =red flag
------
Late Pace Last :99 Red Route One 2nd  98 Gun Pilot 95 Verifying 4th 91 Bourbon Bash 85 Reincarnate 3rd
84 Talladega 83 Giant Mischief 82 Powerful 81 Frosted Departure 78 Event Detail 65 Confidence Game  WINNER
---------------------
Off TrackRed Route One 90 sys  2nd,Talladega 88 wts, Frosted Departure 88 sys, Verifying 82sys 4th, Bourbon Bash 66 sys
---------
4 don't have Stamina Chefs within 5 generations, Powerful, Giant Mischief, Talladega, Bourbon Bash, all OTM..
-------
  • Edited February 28, 2023 4:43 pm  by  smartyslew
DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

Feb-27

smartyslew said:

We saw What Graham Motion did with Animal Kingdom, We can't expect that high bar  with this horse, still might be good on dirt with this breeding"

------That great one, Animal Kingdom, was the one who put in the tool kit..

Turf to dirt cha cha..

Still giving Private Creed (24/1 in Risen Star) /appears to date grasser/dirt challenged; a look at, as perhaps he didn't like running later in the day, first time under the lights. Final time was very slow as compared to other Delta Beyers that day with proven horses in substantial purses, as well as favored runners in the Risen Star not running a lick.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-27

More data for the Rebel stakes on messages this thread.
--
Message 1656 this thread, I did exactly this, Tri and Super and  a exacta without the 2 horse.
and bet the Winner
--

In the Rebel I will do one box of the 4 Lasix free entrants  2 Powerful, 3 Red Route One, 6 Reincarnate
7 Confidence Game: Rain Or Shine 

I'll wait to see what the track Conditions look like before I make a bet Saturday.

Tough field.. On Paper.
--------
Message 1657 this Thread with results
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
best pedigree mud stats Sire only-----------    Sire   &   BMS AWD (average winning Distance                                                                     
1stConfidence Game Starts   1913  % 21         7.1         7.5  WINNER, 1st 2 both sires 7.1 f or better
Giant Mischief                       1836   % 19         6.8         7.1
Talladega                              1836   % 19          6.8         6.4
Frosted Departure                 278    %  15         6.6         7.0
Powerful                                146    %  20         7.1         7.5
Gun Pilot                               121    %  22         7.3         7.6
Red Route One  2nd             121    %   22        7.3         7.6  2nd 
Reincarnate    3rd                 26     %  23          6.7         7.2  3rd
Verifying      4th                     19     %  21          6.8          7.3 4th  
Bourbon Bash                      11     %  18          7.2           6.7
Event Detail                          11     %   18         7.2          6.8
---------
1st 4 4 finishers 21% or better Sire  mudders
---
Message 1659
--------------------------------------

I did do a Mix of the 3 L free I like with some of the 5 on our list
And bet the winner hoping he would rate and not break on top.
----
In the Rebel I will do one box of the 4 Lasix free entrants  2 Powerful, 3 Red Route One, 6 Reincarnate
7 Confidence Game: Rain Or Shine 
--
I'll wait to see what the track Conditions look like before I make a bet Saturday.

Tough field.. On Paper.

Also at race time might do a mix from the L free and these
 On Our List Racing in The Rebel:5 entrants:1 Verifying, 4 Gun Pilot-rf, 5 Giant Mischief,6 Reincarnate
7 Confidence Game
I am leaning to 7 Confidence Game and see if the clean face can win this. If he doesn't win the break
he won't have a clean face
many in here are bred for slop
---
pianot

From: pianot

Feb-27

This is all awesome stuff. Do u track track issues as well? Blocks, pullups, bad starts etc?

  • Edited February 27, 2023 7:19 pm  by  pianot
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-27

I use bad trips for a lot of that and many times it happens in the last race and besides watching

replays I use back speed a lot, sometimes its more important than data from last race and

with Bris free PP's on  Cindy and Tex's  Main site  I correct what I think is mistakes and many times my

own numbers are used where I don't agree with their numbers  and its handy to use and my own deciphering.

Some will say I don't like bris, Bris isn't the only tool in my tool box, far from it.

Their free PP's is a blessing on this site.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-28

I didn't mean to run everybody off  . Maybe I need to change Mouthwash.

pianot

From: pianot

Feb-28

I think it's digest time for me anyway!

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