Horse-Races.Net HRN's Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)|Horse-Races.Net

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping. Hosted by HRN: Horse-Races.Net

  • 535
    MEMBERS
  • 34363
    MESSAGES
  • 26
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 257572 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-4

the 2nd coming of Animal Kingdom was blocked for awhile, earned 8 Derby Points

Derby Winner Jock Sonny Leone was on the Longshot winner and very good splits and time

for the AW at Turfway. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-5

What did you think of that troubled trip, the tvg  announcers Thought it was a lot better than the expected

Beyers numbers 96 , I was expecting triple digits. Equibase  109 isn't to shabby for them and makes sense to me.

Emmanuel Pedigree imo does tilt more to Turf than dirt.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-5

Did anyone notice what the 4 derby prep winners have in Common,

Forte,  Practical Move, Raise Cain, Congruent all 4 are Lasix free in their races.

Suggest to me they are not bleeders, raced against some Lasix Runners that need lasix to

get their best race speed numbers , suggest keep an eye for those types , and non Lasix

users should recover faster between races.

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Mar-5

Like I said about the Gotham, there goes that 93-1 I wanted to bet in the last future.  He normally is up close to the lead, spotted that 7L early in the race 1/4 & 1/2.  Everyone will notice him now with that bad start and wide close.  Still has to step it up in his next to get points.   I'll have to route against now, will hate that if only...   Especially the exacta some which had 5 figs.

Still have to think Gotham runners not fairing well in KD so wondering if he is anything, why here and why no one wanted to ride.

Edit, I went and checked the splits equibase did not have the 6f split but I saw on the replay it was 71.39.   LQ TT 26+ Total for the 1T 8f was 98.09 which is not great so not expecting much from these unless they improve.  Without the slow start SM may have put in a good time.  It was listed muddy and sealed track so that could have an effect.

  • Edited March 5, 2023 2:41 pm  by  PISTOL9
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-5

Thanks all good points, the jock said he came out slow and was surprised  and decided  since he missed the break

to go slow at first and since he was wide stay there and make a run at the finish and the best part of the track

down the stretch was wide where he kept him and made his run, thus recovered and got 2nd place

Thanks for that 6f time, The jock did note he is a forward placing type and he didn't say it ,we both know

 he's an eyeball to eyeball type and seems not to get intimidated. 

fast track and different track is what I would like to see. His Bottom pedigree can be bred to almost any Sire imo.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Mar-6

I wonder why DRF, when listing the BSFs on the leaderboard, left out Hit Show?  

Did anyone notice that? 

I had to go to Past the Wire to get that:  Hit Show, a gray son of Candy Ride, earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure for his 5 1/2-length conquest of the nine-furlong test under jockey Manny Franco, earning 20 points towards the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby on May 6 at Churchill Downs.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-6

On that day the Leaderboad a horse needed 92 or higher to be on it.

After this weekend's prep races the winners and others knocked all of the 92's off of the board 

with higher numbers and the lowest is 93 today.  On that Day Hit Show was not the only one with 91

not good enough to make the board.  Practical Move 100, Forte 98, Geaux Rocket Ride 96, Kangaroo Court 6f  95,

Skinner 94, Hejazi  93,  all new to the Leader board this week. Beyer loves Santa Anita.

seven listed today at the low 93 on the board.

For the Derby I only use the best 8.5 f or longer,, I only use 8f and shorter for those to toss that best 

numbers are lower than 8.5 f races, and Equibase and Bris numbers I Use more than Beyers,

The Beyers only give a number from point A to point B, and not how they got there.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-6

And you make a good point with Hit Show that 9f Withers win was after he was bumped at the start

Got the lead at the mile 1 length lead over Arctic Arrogance  and pulled  head in the last 1/8 to win

by 5 1/2 lengths over Arctic and 113/4 ahead of General Banker who also finished 3rd Saturday in the Gotham

Equibase awarded General Banker a 75 in the Withers and 76 Saturday for the Gotham

Hit Show 93 from Equibase  Arctic Arrogance 85.  

Again your numbers  imo are better than all 3 speed gurus. Good question to start this scenario.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Mar-6

What was Un Ojo's numbers when he ran 2nd to Early Voting in the Withers then won the Rebel Stakes at stratospheric odds of 75-1, stalking the pace.  Withers was the race that Beyer originally gave Early Voting a 78 on, and later adjusted to an 87. 

(watching Jose whip Early Voting in that race is what made me realize that horse was barely making it in the Withers, so I never used him in my wagers as I stated at the time).  

Now that Dr. Steve Roman isn't doing PFs, I really don't care that much about numbers, esp. BSFs. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-6

Un Ojo numbers are probably on this thread if you go back to Feb 6, 2022 the day after the Withers

or later on in the month last year.

TOP