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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net
From: smartyslew
Mar-29
I'm going to concentrate on pool 6 future pool first with the amount of time
I'll have this week, If I have time I'll do the Florida Derby last.
Remember that track is tricky and favors inside horses for that distance.
I suggest try to use class in the order you think they are and see what post they have
Like Forte might be the class for example and the Post he drew has only 2 winners forever
Since they redesigned there track a few years ago at this distance and past splits could tell
a story if the other class has a good pp to hit the bend in the track. from there its position imo.
From: smartyslew
Mar-30
Pool 6 futures Pool opened Today a day earlier than most pools and its closing a day earlier
Saturday 4/1/2023 at 6pm EDT before the 2 Derby preps are run on Saturday . they will run like 40 minutes later
on one race and I'm not sure the time for the other. Forte will probably be still the favorite when it closes.
From: TexSquared
Mar-30
We posted a lead-up for it on Tuesday night:
http://www.horse-races.net/library/kd23future6.htm
Free PP's here: http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Derby23Future6.pdf
Pool closes 6PM ET on Saturday, so, 40 min before the FL Derby and about 1 3/4 hours before the AR Derby.
Live odds: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/kentucky-derby-future-wager-pool-6
From: smartyslew
Mar-30
Thanks Tex, I Haven't read that link yet, I have been busy with the other 2 links and in my travels ran into the 3rd one.
Thanks for putting all of that on here, it helps .
From: smartyslew
Mar-31
some strategy will box from those 30 pts> (17 entrants) and above look for value.
Others will play 1 or 2 under 20 or 30 in the mix and decide how many to use total play.
Another tool I use is At least one Stamina Chef within a 5 generation Pedigree and almost all
Only Suggestion low percentage play if the horse doesn't have a stamina CHef within 5 Generations
NO DURA Erade 40 Pts, Major Dude 40, Funtastic Again 30 Beat Raise Cain
| Name | DERBY POINTS | Pool 3 Odds | Pool 4 Odds | Pool 5 Odds | M/L Odds | N/A | ||
| 1L | Angel of Empire 97 g2 9f n 1^ 54 | - | - | L3&5 back | ||||
| 2 | Arctic Arrogance 90 G3 9f RF 1^ 16 | no n- | - |
- Edited March 31, 2023 2:59 am by smartyslew
From: smartyslew
Mar-31
Pool 6 futures chart info :3/31/ 2 pm E.
http://www.horse-races.net/library/kd23future6.htm
odds of interest
#9 Derma Sotogake 10-1
13 Fort Bragg 99-1
14 Forte 2-1
21 KingsBarn 11-1
26 Practical Move 20-1
27 Raise Cain b 99-1
28 Red Route One 22-1
29 Reincarnate 19-1
30 Rocket Can 55-1
35 Tapit Trice 9-1
40 All Others 24-1
---
From: smartyslew
Mar-31
| Interlock Empire 15f All Lasix |
| Rocket Can 40 pts 30-1 L free |
| L Kolomio T 15-1 last L ---------- |
------
--------
Early last: 109 Harlocap 100 Angel of Empire 96 Rocket Can 95 Airtime 94 Bourbon Bash 86 *Reincarnate 85 Two Eagles River 82 Kolomio 75 King Russell 70Interlock Empire 68 Red Route One: * Slop & stop
From: smartyslew
Mar-31
| STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,250,000. Arkansas Derby (Grade 1). THREE YEAR OLDS. (06:24 PM) (11) |
| PP | Horse | A/S | M/E | Wgt | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bourbon Bash 24.65, 47.19 11.97 38.32 45.41 Last q 26.76 8.5F SYs g2 | 3 C | 119 | Gutierrez Reylu | Lukas D. Wayne | |
| 2 | Interlock Empire 25.58 49.62 13.22 25.92 38.52 Last Q 25.30 8f MSWL | 3 C | 119 | Cabrera David | McPeek Kenneth G. | |
| 3 | Harlocap 23.44 48.00 12.21 39.03 53.37Last Q 31.16 9f g2 | 3 C | 119 | Santana, Jr. Ricardo | Asmussen Steven M. | |
| 4 | Two Eagles River 23.36 47.94 12.68 24.94 37.10 Last Q 24.42 8f oc L | 3 G | 119 | Juarez Nik | Hartman Chris A. | |
| 5 | Airtime 23.56 47.11 12.28 38.56 44.97 Last Q 26.15 8.5f oc L | 3 C | 119 | Torres Cristian A. | Diodoro Robertino | |
| 6 | Angel Of Empire 24.57 48.63 13.05 38.63 51.47 Last Q 25.43 9f g2 | 3 C | 122 | Prat Flavien | Cox Brad H. | |
From: TexSquared
Apr-1
As of Friday night/Saturday morning (2am ET) SIXTEEN horses are at 99-1 (or longer) odds.
Forte is the heavy favorite at 5-2, Kingsbarns are Derma Sotogake are 10-1 followed by Tapit Trice at 11-1. So if you want to toss these 4 short odds horses...
Also if it's useful, free PPs for all of today (Saturday)'s graded stakes here:
https://www.equibase.com/tdn/pastperformance.cfm?rd=2023-04-01
-Tex
- Edited April 1, 2023 11:40 am by TexSquared
From: smartyslew
Apr-1
Ark DERBY
Final Q 25.40 or faster Qualifiers.:
9f races : zero, nobody Angel Of Empire closest 25.43 could be a big deal going forward g2 WON 2nd 9f win in a row 2-2 1.49.68
8.5f Red Route One 25.37 g2 slop, King Russell 25.31 MDN Lasix- 2ND Place 1.50.53
8f : Two eagles River 24.42 Lasix OC, Interlock Empire 25.30 Lasix MSW
Kolomio : Turf 120 ft runup 8f Lasix 23.73
---------
I don't know if anybody has talked about the horses that finished behind Forte in his races, I think its worth a look
how they did in other races and where they fit in this crop.
- Edited April 2, 2023 3:23 pm by smartyslew