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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 353017 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/3/23

Thank you . You saved me some work

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

Save for the Lasix effect Page 2

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

5/4/23

I went back over his (TP's) races, carefully.  I looked carefully at his earlier dirt races at shorter and he seemed very fast.   Then I watch his race at TP again.  I was concentrating more on his sire DI and his speed at shorter when I originally looked at him w/out seeing all the stamina on the mare side.  I think I was wrong about him and you were right.   

Truth be told, I was kind of not looking closely at him or Tapit Trice because in the back of my mind I had them set aside for the Belmont Stakes.  
 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

Both should be coming in the Derby after 8.5f mark on a fast track, with a good trip

I have both on my ticket as noted on my ten before  the Draw.

I like the one who rates and loves to be covered up close and drafts

between horses and moves forward like a Nascar and his Jock fits him

like a glove no matter the grade of the race. Best under the Radar work 

by a few including me and I also liked a couple of other works. EDIT Two Phils 2nd place.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

Info for the win bet only before you decide a big wager
----
Bodemeister had 26 works before his 1st race in January of his 3 yr old year(6 months of works)
Justify; Baffert worked Justify over 20 times before his 1st race, He tried numerous times
to get a Apollo type in The Derby Winners circle. before he succeeded with Justify.
2 Apollo in this years derby Race: 

Mage had 10 works at 2 yr olds his first race was 1/28/23  EDIT I was way Off On THIS
3 more works before his 1st race.none of his 2yr works were over 4f, 1 5f work befote his 1st race.
Kingsbarns 8 works at 2 first work 11/13/22, 1 5f work, 1 work 1/6 before the 1st race 1/14/23

Gerh

From: Gerh

5/4/23

Interesting in relation to foundation.Personally,I think both are quality animals but this is too much too soon

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

Exactly, If Pletcher did his job he would tell his clients with Derby Fever to get another Trainer

and take the loss from his purse, and or enter at the next level race . 2 for 62 is crazy

3 or 4 a year 

Gerh

From: Gerh

5/4/23

I would prefer a conservative trainer.It’s like hiring a financial planner and ignoring his advice.Like you said,the trainer should put the horse first and tell their clients what is in the horses best interests

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

EDIT 5/25 Mage 5th Derby Winner with no Stam Chef in 5 gen., Mrp/ Nor Dan nick Most winners
L 3 back, 2 lines Stam from White Eagle Thru BMS, WA PP,2 Prince, 1 La Troienne PP, 2 White Eagle
Thru Summer Squall CD .57 Should of skipped Preakness Pedigree suggests Major Belmont Player IMO.
---
rf Rasmussen Factor 6x 6 or closer, Dam age when horse was Born, Sire Age When horse Born
^ Stamina chef in 5gen. Positive), 0^ no stam in 5 negative),<n Nor Dan/ Bold Ruler nick(negative)
n Derby Nick (Positive)
2nd line tail f. family always at least 6 placements or noted when more in 5 gen. Plus
other families with 6 or more placement within 5 generations. ex : Forte 1x Tff 6 placements conduit BP 
La Troienne Xfactor,then13c 10 placements within 5 generations Mr P 3, Slew 2, Forestry,3, Bailjumper 2,
Conduit Frizette 13c BP X factor. 
-----------
1 Forte RF  2^  n Dam 7  sire 10  Nor Dan/ T2 last 3 beyer 100-98-95(9f) wrong direction 
 rf,1x,13c(10) Violence/ Blame (T)  
--------
2 Practical Move 0^ n Dam 8 Sire 6 Storm Cat / MrP,  Beyer 73 82 88 100 100 (9f)
2f, 5g(6) Practical Joke/ Afleet Alex
-------
3 Angel Of Empire 1^ n  Dam 4 Sire 6 Fappiano/ API, Bey 51 74L 85 89(9f) 94(9f)
L4 &6 back) 26, 4m(8)4r(8) Classic Empire/ To Honor And serve
---
4 Tapit Trice 2^ n Dam 8 Sire 19, API/ Fappiano, Bey 92L 88  99(9f) 
L 3 back 19b,13c(7)3o(6) Tapit /Dunkirk
-----
5 Two Phils 0^,<n Dam 7 Sire 16, Danzig/Pulpit Beyer 88 86(9f)101(AW)+ 15 (9f)
16h(12) Hard Spun/ General Quarters
---------
6 Lord Miles 1^ n Dam 4 Sire 16, Mr P / Api  Bey 71 64 79 93(9f)
1l,4m(7) 13c(6) Curlin/ Majestic Warrior
------------
7 Derma Sotogake 1^, no n Dam 10 Sire 7  Nor Dan/ T2, Bey N/A
12, Mind Your Biscuits/ Sunday Silence
---------------
8 KingsBarns   2^ n  Dam8 Sire 12 Caro/Api  bey 74L 84L 95(9 3/16)
L2&3 back of 3 races) 3,13c(6) Uncle Mo/ Tapit    
----
9 Raise Cain rf 2^ n   Dam 10 Sire 10 Nor Dan/ Mr P bey 81 70AW 90 89 (9f)
14c ,13c(8)  Violence/Lemon Drop Kid
-------
10 Rocket Can 1^,<n  Dam 8 Sire 15 Storm Cat/API  bey 82 91 86(9f)
A5, 23b(7) Into Mischief/ Tapit  
---------
11 Hit Show 3^ n  Dam 6 Sire 21 Fappiano/Api bey 60 71 82L 91(9f) 93(9f)
L3 back )  A1,13c(8) Candy Ride/ Tapit
---
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

One for Shaddy. good luck  Edit Lasix Free 2nd Place Two Phils

Here is an angle to take a good look at, what do they have in common 
yes they all won a Gr race in last start, what else ?
all are Lasix free runners. Are you going to use a Horse
for the win whos highest speed number is with Lasix or
one from this group carrying 126 pounds at 10 furlongs
and you can add Mandarin Hero to this group L free
and missed the Win by a nose.
-----

Forte 1st Florida Derby won 5 gr races in a row
Practical Move 1st Santa Anita Derby won 3 gr races in a row
Two Phils 1st Jack Ruby Steaks AW 9f g3
Lord Miles 1st Wood 9f g2
Derma Sotogage 1st UAE Derby g2, 9 3/16 f
Confidence Game 1st Rebel G2  8,5fsly
---

4/12/23 12 entrants in the top 20 Point System are Lasix Free
5 others one race With L , check them out in the top 20.
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