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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 352989 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

Info for the win bet only before you decide a big wager
----
Bodemeister had 26 works before his 1st race in January of his 3 yr old year(6 months of works)
Justify; Baffert worked Justify over 20 times before his 1st race, He tried numerous times
to get a Apollo type in The Derby Winners circle. before he succeeded with Justify.
2 Apollo in this years derby Race: 

Mage had 10 works at 2 yr olds his first race was 1/28/23  EDIT I was way Off On THIS
3 more works before his 1st race.none of his 2yr works were over 4f, 1 5f work befote his 1st race.
Kingsbarns 8 works at 2 first work 11/13/22, 1 5f work, 1 work 1/6 before the 1st race 1/14/23

Gerh

From: Gerh

5/4/23

Interesting in relation to foundation.Personally,I think both are quality animals but this is too much too soon

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

Exactly, If Pletcher did his job he would tell his clients with Derby Fever to get another Trainer

and take the loss from his purse, and or enter at the next level race . 2 for 62 is crazy

3 or 4 a year 

Gerh

From: Gerh

5/4/23

I would prefer a conservative trainer.It’s like hiring a financial planner and ignoring his advice.Like you said,the trainer should put the horse first and tell their clients what is in the horses best interests

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

EDIT 5/25 Mage 5th Derby Winner with no Stam Chef in 5 gen., Mrp/ Nor Dan nick Most winners
L 3 back, 2 lines Stam from White Eagle Thru BMS, WA PP,2 Prince, 1 La Troienne PP, 2 White Eagle
Thru Summer Squall CD .57 Should of skipped Preakness Pedigree suggests Major Belmont Player IMO.
---
rf Rasmussen Factor 6x 6 or closer, Dam age when horse was Born, Sire Age When horse Born
^ Stamina chef in 5gen. Positive), 0^ no stam in 5 negative),<n Nor Dan/ Bold Ruler nick(negative)
n Derby Nick (Positive)
2nd line tail f. family always at least 6 placements or noted when more in 5 gen. Plus
other families with 6 or more placement within 5 generations. ex : Forte 1x Tff 6 placements conduit BP 
La Troienne Xfactor,then13c 10 placements within 5 generations Mr P 3, Slew 2, Forestry,3, Bailjumper 2,
Conduit Frizette 13c BP X factor. 
-----------
1 Forte RF  2^  n Dam 7  sire 10  Nor Dan/ T2 last 3 beyer 100-98-95(9f) wrong direction 
 rf,1x,13c(10) Violence/ Blame (T)  
--------
2 Practical Move 0^ n Dam 8 Sire 6 Storm Cat / MrP,  Beyer 73 82 88 100 100 (9f)
2f, 5g(6) Practical Joke/ Afleet Alex
-------
3 Angel Of Empire 1^ n  Dam 4 Sire 6 Fappiano/ API, Bey 51 74L 85 89(9f) 94(9f)
L4 &6 back) 26, 4m(8)4r(8) Classic Empire/ To Honor And serve
---
4 Tapit Trice 2^ n Dam 8 Sire 19, API/ Fappiano, Bey 92L 88  99(9f) 
L 3 back 19b,13c(7)3o(6) Tapit /Dunkirk
-----
5 Two Phils 0^,<n Dam 7 Sire 16, Danzig/Pulpit Beyer 88 86(9f)101(AW)+ 15 (9f)
16h(12) Hard Spun/ General Quarters
---------
6 Lord Miles 1^ n Dam 4 Sire 16, Mr P / Api  Bey 71 64 79 93(9f)
1l,4m(7) 13c(6) Curlin/ Majestic Warrior
------------
7 Derma Sotogake 1^, no n Dam 10 Sire 7  Nor Dan/ T2, Bey N/A
12, Mind Your Biscuits/ Sunday Silence
---------------
8 KingsBarns   2^ n  Dam8 Sire 12 Caro/Api  bey 74L 84L 95(9 3/16)
L2&3 back of 3 races) 3,13c(6) Uncle Mo/ Tapit    
----
9 Raise Cain rf 2^ n   Dam 10 Sire 10 Nor Dan/ Mr P bey 81 70AW 90 89 (9f)
14c ,13c(8)  Violence/Lemon Drop Kid
-------
10 Rocket Can 1^,<n  Dam 8 Sire 15 Storm Cat/API  bey 82 91 86(9f)
A5, 23b(7) Into Mischief/ Tapit  
---------
11 Hit Show 3^ n  Dam 6 Sire 21 Fappiano/Api bey 60 71 82L 91(9f) 93(9f)
L3 back )  A1,13c(8) Candy Ride/ Tapit
---
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

One for Shaddy. good luck  Edit Lasix Free 2nd Place Two Phils

Here is an angle to take a good look at, what do they have in common 
yes they all won a Gr race in last start, what else ?
all are Lasix free runners. Are you going to use a Horse
for the win whos highest speed number is with Lasix or
one from this group carrying 126 pounds at 10 furlongs
and you can add Mandarin Hero to this group L free
and missed the Win by a nose.
-----

Forte 1st Florida Derby won 5 gr races in a row
Practical Move 1st Santa Anita Derby won 3 gr races in a row
Two Phils 1st Jack Ruby Steaks AW 9f g3
Lord Miles 1st Wood 9f g2
Derma Sotogage 1st UAE Derby g2, 9 3/16 f
Confidence Game 1st Rebel G2  8,5fsly
---

4/12/23 12 entrants in the top 20 Point System are Lasix Free
5 others one race With L , check them out in the top 20.
--

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

25 derby contenders last race splits with last 1/8 for 9f preps and Last Q for all races
Historical  times are 25.40 or faster for Last Q, last 1/8  12.80 >, Runup for each race
Dubai runup is 0, Wood 88,Santa Anita 85, Ruby 80, Florida 70, Ark 60, Blue Grass 50, 5 entrants
Lexinton 50, Louisiana 45, (Sunland 20 (MTB)) 15 of 25 entrants  Last Q time is 25.40 or better
This Many is new for the 21st Century, we have had years with 4 or 5 . Tricky year for speed.
+ Kingsbarns Slowest Mile time 1st 20  39.13  with historic Final Q 24.31 and Lasix in last RAW TIME 9 3/16

-------------------------  start ---2f ------4f-------6f-------8f--------9f---last 1/8 ---last Q  ----------   Off L =Lasix in previous   

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Forte               7/12  24.70   47.75  11.54  36.87  49.37(12.50)  25.17 Q       runup 70 ft
2 PracticalMove   7/8    22.92  46.70   11.35  35.73  48.69(12.96)  25.15 Q       runup 85 ft
3 AngelOfEmpire 7/10  24.21  48.14   12.96  37.56  49.68(12.12)  24.42 Q        runup 60
4 Tapit Trice        8/11   24.93  48.55  12.68  37.62  50.00(12.38)  24.85 Q                 50
5 Two Phils         6/11   24.03  48.27  12.31  36.69  49.03(12.34)  24.53 Q AW            80
6 Lord Miles       3/13   25.18  49.31   13.25  38.18  51.17(12.99)  25.46 Q                  88
7 Derma Sotogake N/A       meters last 2 sections       200   12.16 fin  12.45                                                            
8 KingsBarns+      1/12   24.71  49.60   14.69 +39.13 57.33(*18.20) 24.31 Q 9 3/16*  45 Off L
9 Raise Cain       7/10   25.43  49.20   13.42  38.80  51.24 (12.44)  25.13 Q                 50
10 Rocket Can     6/10  23.84  47.69   12.68  38.12  50.65 (12.53)  25.44 Q                 60 
11 Hit Show        6/12  25.38   49.63   13.20  38.22  51.18 (12.96)  25.47 Q                88
12Confidence G.  7/11  23.95   47.01   11.79  37.72  44.21  (6.49)   25.98 Q 8.5f         60
13 Verifying       2/11   23.82   48.24   12.59  37.60   50.04 (12.44)  24.95 Q                50
14 Sun Thunder 10/11 25.34   49.22   13.31  38.52   51.28 (12.76)  25.37 Q                50
15 Wild On Ice   3/6    23.02   46.18   10.94   37.70  51.39  (13.69)  27.07 Q                20 Off L
16 Mage          11/12  25.22   47.87   11.75   36.35   49.57 (13.22)  26.07 Q                 70
17 Blazing Sev.  9/11  25.24   48.97   12.98   38.41   51.17 (12.76)  25.43 Q                 50  
18 Disarm         3/11  25.42   48.83    13.08   38.33   44.69 (6.36)   26.56 Q 8.5f          50
1
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

I didn't list the beyer for each Race, the grade of each race, the trip
you can look at the charts, PP's and replays
 any number you see like tapit Trice 4th one down 89--, Is the track variant for that day , matched by him
 Track Variant  My display Forte 1st race 93 +2 the track variant on that day was 91, (93+2 forte beat
the variant for that day 91 +2= 93 awarded to Forte, I like to see horses equal or beat the variant
on the given day they race. Beyer gave him a 95 for that race.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
how they did with the track variant  last race 1st
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races
2 Practical Move        97+3,100-,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3,
3 Angel Of Empire  3rd   91+4,81-3,86+6,91L+7,77-4,
4 Tapit Trice              89--,93-1,87L+3,78+2, 79-4 
5 Two Phils     2nd          98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
6 Lord Miles              84+1,87-7,70-14,81-3,77--,
7 Derma Sotogake     N/A
8 KingsBarns             85-2, 90L +9, 74L--,
9 Raise Cain              82-7,85--,84-5,83-9,72-6,76-4
10 Rocket Can           86-1,85-4,81-3,86+4,74+5
11 Hit Show          5th    84+1,66-4,89L+1,80-2,
12Confidence Game   88+4,77-4,87+5,68-7,67-19,
13 Verifying               89--, 83-1,93L+8,76-13, 85-3
14 Sun Thunder         82-7,76-11,80-4,83-9, 82L--,
15 Wild On Ice           90+4, 80L-7,63-24, 
16 Mage           1st--         92+1, 83-6,93L+3   !st
17 Blazing Sevens      83-6, 64-25, 83-6,88--,78-10
Hit Show                    84+1, 66-4,89L +1,80-2
18 Reincarnate           86-1,85+1,99+12,83-3,86-1
19 Jaces Road            79-8,79-12,89-2,drop rider,75-11      
20 Continuar              NA
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5,
22 Cyclone Mischief    90-1,84-1,69-15,87L--,76-6,
23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T
24 Mandorin Hero       97+3

--------

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

Without 2 of the Japanese Colts on here ,3 from the Santa Anita Derby

2 on AW or turf and Forte and Practical Move 103 a new 3 yr old high 8.5f 1.41.3

3 back , this is the top tier to go over first looking for different styles and what

these numbers don't tell you is where I like to start pro and con. the first thing

that jumps out at me is why 3 from one race are they the Cream of the crop

Forte last 3 races are going in the wrong direction according to the speed numbers

the variant doesn't agree with that and bit by bit maybe better and watch replays

for all and in forte case to me looks like he hasn't been cut loose yet watch and decide

for your self. For Me this is where I start, Listening to others suggest I'm still in the starting Gate

5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3
24 Mandorin Hero       97+3

23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5,
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3

Edit ; The track variant used is the DRF track variant.

Without 2 of the Japanese Colts on here ,3 from the Santa Anita Derby
2 on AW or turf and Forte and Practical Move 103 a new 3 yr old high 8.5f 1.41.3
3 back , this is the top tier to go over first looking for different styles and what
these numbers don't tell you is where I like to start pro and con. the first thing
that jumps out at me is why 3 from one race are they the Cream of the crop
Forte last 3 races are going in the wrong direction according to the speed numbers
the variant doesn't agree with that and bit by bit maybe better and watch replays
for all and in forte case to me looks like he hasn't been cut loose yet watch and decide
for your self. For Me this is where I start, Listening to others suggest I'm still in the starting Gate


5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3
24 Mandorin Hero       97+3
23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5,
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3variant

--

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/23

This is similiar to your Angel  DI   CD

Last years Derby Winner Mandaloun :DP = 2-3-1-0-0 (6) DI = 11.00   CD = 1.17 has only 2 Chefs in the first 4 generations

with a Stam Chef in the 5th generation, and stamina Mares and Sires in the 6th generation Producing some Stamina in The 5th Generation

Not to many new Chefs in the last 7 or 8 years. We will be seeing a lot of this with the Chefs pushed back to the 5th 6th  generations.

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