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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 308906 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-5

Gerh said...

Interesting in relation to foundation.Personally,I think both are quality animals but this is too much too soon

Yes I prefer foundations for classic distance routers to be built slowly, and over time, by a patient trainer who is not looking to leap to the breeding shed at end of age 3.   Too much too soon is spot on. 

I want to see classic distance horses running at age 4, 5, 6, etc.   You can't do that if you don't build a foundation slowly, and certainly not when a very young, non-mature musculoskeletal system is still developing, at age 2-3.    I feel sorry for horses put thru The Baffert Program.    TBs aren't quarterhorses and shouldn't be trained like them. 

To that, some people will say to me "he is a trainer, you are not, and he's been successful doing it that way"

My answer is that there are many roads to success........some of them you don't have to take, and maybe shouldn't.  There are a myriad of roads to success, and you can choose the road that benefits the horses as well.  First, Do No Harm.     

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

May-5

Wintertrian said:

I feel sorry for horses put thru The Baffert Program.    TBs aren't quarterhorses and shouldn't be trained like them. 

30 years ago we'd call it the Lukas Program, same thing. How many young horses ruined. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-5

Oaks play for today

I played a Tri : Wonder Wheel, Wet Paint, Affirmative Lady, Pretty Mischievous.

Longshot Bet Affirmative Lady  18-1 right Now.  Needs to stay out of trouble
Wonder Wheel 4 g1 races

Pretty Mischievious Post 14  horse for the Course,   10-1

Won from post 12 in a 12 horse field 6.5f Mdn 12-1 now  CD 3-2-0-1

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-5

Oaks play for today

I played a Tri : Wonder Wheel, Wet Paint, Affirmative Lady, Pretty Mischievous.

Longshot Bet Affirmative Lady  18-1 right Now.  Needs to stay out of trouble
Wonder Wheel 4 g1 races  10-1

Pretty Mischievious Post 14  horse for the Course,   

Won from post 12 in a 12 horse field 6.5f Mdn 12-1 now  CD 3-2-0-1

twoshots

From: twoshots

May-5

This angle caught my attention. Horses sold at auction for over $500k have drastically underperformed over the last few decades, not only for the win but even to be in the money. I put in a smallish tri box based on this.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-6

see message 2111 EDIT

For Me this is where I start, Listening to others suggest I'm still in the starting Gate

5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3
24 Mandorin Hero       97+3

23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5,
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3

Edit ; The track variant used is the DRF track variant.

Without 2 of the Japanese Colts on here ,3 from the Santa Anita Derby
2 on AW or turf and Forte and Practical Move 103 a new 3 yr old high 8.5f 1.41.3
3 back , this is the top tier to go over first looking for different styles and what
these numbers don't tell you is where I like to start pro and con. the first thing
that jumps out at me is why 3 from one race are they the Cream of the crop
Forte last 3 races are going in the wrong direction according to the speed numbers
the variant doesn't agree with that and bit by bit maybe better and watch replays
for all and in forte case to me looks like he hasn't been cut loose yet watch and decide
for your self. For Me this is where I start, Listening to others suggest I'm still in the starting Gate


5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3
24 Mandorin Hero       97+3
23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5,
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3variant

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Its Chaotic, I'm starting Over right here: 
5 Two Phils ,24 Mandarin Hero are the only 2 left from this angle
these 2 will be on my ticket for sure and add 17 Derma Sotogake
and I will add more as I go on. stay tuned.
_________________

5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3Scr
24 Mandarin Hero       97+3

23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T Scr
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5, Scr
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3 SCR

Edit ; The track variant used is the DRF track variant.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-6

to add to message 2118 my chaotic Derby picks good luck to all bettors

And I will add more as I go on. stay tuned.
Two Phils doesn't have a Stam chef in 5 gen & bad nick he could become 1st
not my top pick  3-22-17-4-16-5-14
I will do one exotic bet with 23 King Russell on it
I will be using these 7 in my spreads, 
because of the pace i'm worried about Verifying ,and Disarm bred for 4 yrs imo
 
Because of who's left A win Bet on L free *22 Mandarin Hero
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

May-6

I am also including King Russell with Sun Thunder in the 4th position now in some supers......predicting a fast pace

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-6

Congratulations To the connections of Mage and the Forum Members who had him to win

and good exotics payouts. WAY TO GO

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

May-6

I should have listened more to you about Two Phil's......I would have had the super!

But I was happy to land on Mage, though late in the day....enough to make a little profit on the day.  Watching his last two races again an hour before the race sealed the deal for me, in combination with the Pat Day Mile angle.

And Disarm looked good grinding it out for 4th!  Just beat Hit Show for me in the match up I bet :)

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