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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 311189 views.
Msg 2130 of 2541
In reply toRe: msg 2129
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-29

Like Mage: Arcangelo: 4  closest Sires Blood Agr is Over 10 percent and closest 3x4 inbreeding influence

Lightly raced and runs 12's after 6f, I think his Jock is a good fit, JJ Castellano don't get off him now

he just won the Derby and is going for 2 in a row in the TC Series and I think he is a contender

should finish in the Money with a good trip. Anybody besides me think Forte May Not go.

Two Phils was never pointed to the Belmont his connections have been pointed to the BC 

hes not a 12f type and they know what they have.
 

 
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Msg 2131 of 2541
In reply toRe: msg 2129
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2


Belmont Stakes winners 9 generation line breeding  Last 10 years
Checkout the winners most influential horses up close in their pedigrees 
See who shows up the most in 10 years of pedigree and the Per cent of blood.
Mr P has the highest blood in 5 winners and shows up in 8 winners. Nor Dancer in 9 winners
Which of their progeny shows up the most and The Highest percentage of influence
Horse , TFF    closest horse Tff gen  per cent Progeny side influence(Dam, Sire, Even=both)
--------
Mo donegal  3g  Mr P 13c 4x5 AGR 12.49% Preach 2f Forty Niner 1n DAM , NOR DAN 2d 6 Sons 4x5 EVEN 11.57 %-
Essential Quality 1x Fappiano 16a 4x4 20.26%, Unbridled 1r, Jeano 1x  Even, 
Mr P 13c 3x4  20.25% Fappiano 16a,Gone West 2f, Preach 2f even,
Nor Dan 2d 4x5 11.49% Heros Honor 1x , Nijinsky 8f,Stoem Bird 4j  even, 
SEC. 2s 4x5,12.30% Weekend Surprise 3L Terlingua8c. Secrettame 2f DAM side
-------
Tiz The Law 9e  Mr P 13c 4x5 11.38% Fappiano 16a, Preach 2f,Forty Niner 1n,Crafty Prospector 1L Sire   
Nor Dan 2d  5 Sons 5x5 8.20% Sire,  Seattle Slew 13c 5x5 8.08% API 3L, Seattle Song 4m  SS ARoma 19  Sire
----
Sir Winston 1n Vice Regent 10c 4x4 19.30% Deputy Minister10a, Regal Intention22a,Even
Nor Dan 2d  4x5   14,27%, Vice Regent 10c,Nureyev 5h, Dam, Mr P 13c 4x5 13.20%, Afleet1h , Prime Prospect 1c, Even
-----------
Justity 1h, Mr P 13c 3x4 21.59% even, Preach 2f, Yarn 2f ,Prime Prospect 1c ,Love Style 1w
Nijinsky 8f, 4x5 13.72 %, Baldski 21a , State 2f , Likeable Style 1w, even
Nor Dan 2d  5x5 10.84 %, Nijinsky 8f,Vice Regent 10c, Storm Bird 4j even
------
Tapwrit 19, S Slew 13c 4x4 14.18% AP Indy 3l, Sodeo Sodeo 19 even, 
In Reality 21a 4x5 11.39%, Valid Appeal 2c, Charedi 1r, Moon Glitter 3o Sire
Mr P 13c 4x5 10.94%, Fappiano 16a, Preach 2f, Northern Prospect 9f, Sire
------------
Creator 2o  Mr P 13c 4x5 11.24% Fappiano 16a, Preach 2f Sire,Nijinsky 8f 5x5 9.92 % State 2f,Ruby Slippers 3o Sire
Nor Dan 2d 5x5 7.78 % Nijinsky 8f, Northfields 4rSire, Nasrullah 5x5 7.03 % Glamour 1x and 5 sons, Sire
--------
American Pharoah 14, Bold Ruler 8d 5x5 7.81 % Secretariat2s, Chieftain9h,Key To The Kingdom2n ,Cornish Prince 1s Even
Northern Dancer 2d  5x5 8.15% El gran Senor8f Storm Bird 4j  Even
-----------
Tonalist 3L Nor Dan 2d 4x5 10.88% NiJinsky 8f ,TopSider 5h Sire:Nijinsky 8f 5x5 11.37%,State 2f, Ruby Slippers 3o sire
Mr P 13c 4x5 10.83%, Fappiano 16a, Preach 2d, Sire; Buckpasser 1x 5x5 8.84% Magic 1r, Toll Booth3l , Lassie Dear 3l Sire
-----------------------
Palace Malice 2s Nearco 4r 5x5 7.59% Nasrullah 9c,Royal Charger 9c,Nearcticf 14c, Dam
Turn To 1w Sir Gaylord2s, H To Reason4n,Cyane 16b DAM: Nor Dan 2d 5x5 10.13% Nureyev 5h, Vice Regent 10c Even
--------------------------------
 
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Msg 2132 of 2541
In reply toRe: msg 2131
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

Compare How Angel Of Empire And Arcangelo 9 gen Linebreeding Compares to the 
Last 10 Belmont Winners Linebreeding in message 2131. Look for High Percentage AGR
and The more Influence Closer than 5x5 Generations to the target horse and the who
Like the ones listed on the 10 belmont winners in message 2131. Look for Many Progeny
like 3, 4, 5 Names in the same horse besides MR P and Nor Dan like Fappiano Or Nijinsky for example. 
I score this higher than I do the Nicks ; Sire/ Bms.
------
ANGEL OF EMPIRE C, 2020 DP = 4-4-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.20 26, Classic Empire 4m/ To Honor And Serve 4r

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Msg 2133 of 2541
In reply toRe: msg 2132
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

Two More to compare to The Belmont Winners Linebreeding on message 2131 and to each other

FORTE C, 2020 DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 1x, Violence 1g/Blame 5h
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence
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Msg 2134 of 2541
In reply toRe: msg 2133
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

2 more possible for the Belmont tp compare to Message 2131.
--

IL MIRACOLO C, 2020 DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.50,26, Gun Runner 17b,/ Tapit 3o
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
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Msg 2135 of 2541
In reply toRe: msg 2134
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

Check this Pair Out and compare to the Belmont winners message 2131 this thread.
-----
RAISE CAIN C, 2020 DP = 5-4-8-3-0 (20) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.55,14c, Violence 1g,/Lemon drop Kid 3l

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Msg 2136 of 2541
In reply toRe: msg 2135
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

Here is 2 Tapits to check out and compare to other Tapitis on message 2131 that won the Belmont
Stakes and Remember 3 of the Tapit winners were P/N types.

TAPIT SHOES C, 2020 DP = 4-11-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.64,8h,Tapit 3o/Flower Alley 17b

Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
MR PROSPECTOR  13 c
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Msg 2137 of 2541
In reply toRe: msg 2136
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

2023 belmont Contenders splits from their last race.
Angel of Empire     24.30,  48.38  11.84   37.02   2.01.70 10t Derby G1
                                           24.08  23..46  25.18  24.68 lastQ
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Arcangelo             25.05   49.35   13.54   37.59   49.71  1/8 12.12  g3 9f
                                         24.30   24.19   24.05  Last Q 24.15
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
Forte                    24.69   47.74    11.54    36.87   49.37  1/8 12.50 g1 9r  
                                        23..05    23.80   25.33   Laast Q 25.14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hit Show              23.38    46.44   10.83    36.37  2.02.82  10fDerby G1
                                         23.06   24..39   25,54   26.45 Last Q
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Il Miracolo            23.02   45.34     10.48    37.12 last Q 26.64 8f allo OC 100,000
                                        22.32      25.14   26.64
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National Treasure 23.95  48.92     13.49    37.07   55.12  last 3/16 18.05 Prk G1
                                         24.97    24.57    23.58         23.95 Las
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Msg 2138 of 2541
In reply toRe: msg 2137
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

Subject: Belmont Stakes Winner key tf families
Belmont Stakes key winners tf families in 5 generations
With total  Foundation families 5 and 8 in 5 generations in parenthis
Remember the 5 generations are fed by the the Engine room 6 & 7th
Generations This is the Foundation for 12f . not sire side, not Dam side
The Influence comes from  Family reines Mares hooked to Sires or Chefs
to influence from a Family branch at least 4 lines or more within 5 generations.
Tail ff family has at least 6 lines, Sire line tff at least 5 lines, Bms Line at least 4.
13 of 22 have 13c, 6 3o-5 last 8,7 2f,10 fam 2,19 5 or 8, 8f-9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mo Donegal Uncle Mo/ Pulpit; 3g(6)8c(7)13c(7)2f,  (10)
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Msg 2139 of 2541 to smartyslewsmartyslew 
In reply toRe: msg 2138
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-3

smartyslew said...

Remember the 5 generations are fed by the the Engine room 6 & 7th
Generations This is the Foundation for 12f . not sire side, not Dam side

A good reminder.  I remember you saying this from years gone by.  I have to learn more about how to use your wisdoms.  

I will still have to think over Archangelo.  Sort of like you had foundation issues with Mage in the KY Derby, this one also has very little foundation AND is carrying 8 extra pounds than he has ever carried before.  For 9.5 or 10F that wouldn't worry me as much, but for 12F I have to worry a bit. 
 

BTW, I always ignore Tiz the Law's win.......all that speed, and the race was shortened during pandemic year so it wasn't 12F.  

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