smartyslew said...

I'm sorry it upsets you, and it's a pet peeve I hope you retain something positive from it

even with its defects.

I hope you did not misunderstand.  Your posting great data is not upsetting. 

I meant that Baffert's horses, IMHO, don't really run to their breeding, and/or I don't trust it.  So when I look at stats, I just remove those from my view until maybe the 3rd or 4th pass.   Or in case of shortened race, I also delete those from my "view" when analyzing. 

Its just my way of how my brain "sorts" data.   

If I were posting stats for each horse/year, on a forum, like you are, I would of course, include them, and as  you say, let the reader/end-user, apply whatever due dilligence to the data as they choose. 

Was just pointing out how I assimilate and translate data, on a personal basis.  :)  Hoping it may be helpful to others.  

Thats all good to know, thank you.

I'm going to show Hit Shows splits from the derby and compare to the 3 belmont wire Jobs'.
I think he can rate behind National Treasure and anyone that goes with him and relax
and Go Slower than the Derby splits and be one of the canditates to the 1/8 pole 1st.

any feedbacks ?

TexSquared said...

30 years ago we'd call it the Lukas Program, same thing. How many young horses ruined.

So true.

But few about the breed itself, it's future, or the long term effects of this.   

Gamblers just want to win their {short term} bet.   Rarely do they talk about the TB breed itself and it's longevity, so no point in looking there.  

These conversations do exist, but not on most horse racing boards. 

I remember when Steve Roman bowed out.  Instead of noticing the breed changing, they just blamed his "theory" and said "it doesn't work".  Despite that the whole theory was built around what is truly the measure of CLASSIC distance breeding.


Off this topic, but I watched the KY Derby 14 times, while it's true his jockey moved early,  I can still see Mage getting shakey legged at the end there.  To me, that says he can't "run all day".   Good thing he was not entered in the Belmont, that was a good decision on part of his connections.   
 

Wintertrian said:

But few about the breed itself, it's future, or the long term effects of this.    Gamblers just want to win their {short term} bet.   Rarely do they talk about the TB breed itself and it's longevity, so no point in looking there.  

Ken Rudulph lost his FanDuel job saying exactly this.  Sadly his views are shared by a silent majority of bettors who could care less about the root cause of breakdowns (or that breakdowns happen at all) -- breeding weak/unsound/bleeder/no-stamina horses and then running them on dirt tracks over short distances. Same jerks who hate on synthetics and turf.

I've said before, if you like that kind of racing, bet on quarter horses, not Thoroughbreds. Sadly, Lukas and Baffert (on these shores anyway) and the owners/breeders who support them have turned TB racing into AQHA racing.