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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 307687 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-8

smartyslew said...

I'm sorry it upsets you, and it's a pet peeve I hope you retain something positive from it

even with its defects.

I hope you did not misunderstand.  Your posting great data is not upsetting. 

I meant that Baffert's horses, IMHO, don't really run to their breeding, and/or I don't trust it.  So when I look at stats, I just remove those from my view until maybe the 3rd or 4th pass.   Or in case of shortened race, I also delete those from my "view" when analyzing. 

Its just my way of how my brain "sorts" data.   

If I were posting stats for each horse/year, on a forum, like you are, I would of course, include them, and as  you say, let the reader/end-user, apply whatever due dilligence to the data as they choose. 

Was just pointing out how I assimilate and translate data, on a personal basis.  :)  Hoping it may be helpful to others.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

Thats all good to know, thank you.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

9 generation Inbreeding 1st chart, 8 generationFemale linebreeding 2nd chart
2023 Belmont Contenders
HIT SHOW C, 2020 DP = 2-5-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57 A1, Candy Ride 13c/ Tapit 3o
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

NATIONAL TREASUREC,2020 DP 4-4-7-1-0(16) DI 2.56 CD 0.69 4c,Quality Road 13c,/Medag.D'Oro 9b
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

all 9 contenders linebreeding are now listed on this thread

TAPIT SHOES C, 2020 DP = 4-11-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.64,8h,Tapit 3o/Flower Alley 17b

Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
MR PROSPECTOR  13 c 4s x 5S x 5D x 5D x 6d Fappiano 16a, Preach 2f,Fort
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

Here Is a  Tidbit I ran across Not long ago angles for the Belmont Stakes 21 races in the
Twenty First Century omiting the 2020 9f B. Stakes only 3 winners have wired the 
field and 2 are the TC Winners and that is hard to do and only 5 closers 5+ lengths back at the 1/2 mile call.
both angles are listed below.Either angle 8f time is 37.4,38.0 ish. I laid out National Treasure splits
Wire Job for the Preakness which is a different pace Scenario a shorter distance.his 4f and 6f raw time is
slower than the 3 belmont wire jobs and 8f faster with a fast Q. 23.58  Do you think he can wire this field.
3 closers in last race  Angel Of Empire 13 lengths behind,Forte 5 1/4 L Behind, Tapit Trice 15 behind
_______
3 gate to wire winners------2f------4f ----6f----8f----10f------12f--
Da Tara  2008                   23.4   48.1  12.4  37.4   2.03.1  2.29.3   
American Pharoah 2015     24.0   48.4  13.2  37.4   2.02.1  2.26.3 
Justify 2018                      23.1   48.0  13.1  38.0   2.02.4  2.28.0 
(National Treasure                23.95  48.92 13.49 37.07   55.12  last 3/16- 2023)
--------
5 winners 5  + lengths back  at 1/2 mile mark
Afleet Alex 2005                24.2   48.3  12.4  38.0   2.04.1  2.28.3
Jazil 2006                         23.0   47.1  12.0  37.2   2.02.3   2.27.4
Creator 2016                    24.0   48.2  13.1  37.4   2.03.0   2.28.2         
Sir Winston  2019             23.4   48.3  13.2  38.1   2.02.3   2.28.1
Essential Quality 2021       22.3   46.2  12.0  37.2   2.02.1   2.27.0
-------
Angel of Empire                  24.30,  48.38  11.84  37.02  2.01.7 10t Derby G1
                                           24.08   23.46  25.18  24.68 lastQ         13behind
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Arcangelo                           25.05   49.35 13.54   37.59   49.71  1/8 12.12  g3 9f
                                           24.30   24.19   24.05  Last Q 24.15
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
Forte                                  24.69   47.74  11.54   36.87   49.37  1/8 12.50 g1 9r  
                                        23..05    23.80   25.33   Laast Q 25.14   X 51/4 behind
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hit Show                           23.38    46.44   10.83   36.37  2.02.82  10fDerby G1
                                         23.06    24.39   25,54   26.45 Last Q
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Il Miracolo                         23.02   45.34     10.48   37.12 last Q 26.64 8f allo OC 100,000
                                        22.32      25.14   26.64
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

I'm going to show Hit Shows splits from the derby and compare to the 3 belmont wire Jobs'.
I think he can rate behind National Treasure and anyone that goes with him and relax
and Go Slower than the Derby splits and be one of the canditates to the 1/8 pole 1st.

any feedbacks ?

3 gate to wire winners------2f------4f ----6f----8f----10f------12f--
Da Tara  2008                   23.4   48.1  12.4  37.4   2.03.1  2.29.3   
American Pharoah 2015     24.0   48.4  13.2  37.4   2.02.1  2.26.3 
Justify 2018                      23.1   48.0  13.1  38.0   2.02.4  2.28.0 
(National Treasure                    23.95   48.92  13.49  37.07   55.12  last 3/16- 2023)
Hit Show                           23.38 46.44 10.8336.37 2.02.82  10fDerby G1
--
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-9

TexSquared said...

30 years ago we'd call it the Lukas Program, same thing. How many young horses ruined.

So true.

But few about the breed itself, it's future, or the long term effects of this.   

Gamblers just want to win their {short term} bet.   Rarely do they talk about the TB breed itself and it's longevity, so no point in looking there.  

These conversations do exist, but not on most horse racing boards. 

I remember when Steve Roman bowed out.  Instead of noticing the breed changing, they just blamed his "theory" and said "it doesn't work".  Despite that the whole theory was built around what is truly the measure of CLASSIC distance breeding.


Off this topic, but I watched the KY Derby 14 times, while it's true his jockey moved early,  I can still see Mage getting shakey legged at the end there.  To me, that says he can't "run all day".   Good thing he was not entered in the Belmont, that was a good decision on part of his connections.   
 

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

Jun-9

Wintertrian said:

But few about the breed itself, it's future, or the long term effects of this.    Gamblers just want to win their {short term} bet.   Rarely do they talk about the TB breed itself and it's longevity, so no point in looking there.  

Ken Rudulph lost his FanDuel job saying exactly this.  Sadly his views are shared by a silent majority of bettors who could care less about the root cause of breakdowns (or that breakdowns happen at all) -- breeding weak/unsound/bleeder/no-stamina horses and then running them on dirt tracks over short distances. Same jerks who hate on synthetics and turf.

I've said before, if you like that kind of racing, bet on quarter horses, not Thoroughbreds. Sadly, Lukas and Baffert (on these shores anyway) and the owners/breeders who support them have turned TB racing into AQHA racing.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-9

Yes, I received the equivalent of "hate mail" in private messages on forums, for posts I've made about Baffert, and/or about the longevity of the TB breed or........about switching to another kinder surface.  This last one is met with "that will be the end of racing"....they don't even realize that the opposite is more true.   

(The Baffert proponents have been particularly ..um.....viscious in some of the mail I've received.  One of them said "I don't want to associate with anyone LIKE YOU."   LOL   I had a good laugh over that one.)    


Meanwhile, I was looking thru the names of all the horses, in all the prep races so far this year.   This is the first year I've "followed" the prep races, each and every one, in a few years.   They really add up.  

Some of the horses I expected to eventually try a Preakness or Belmont run, even if they didn't make it into the KY Derby gate but that didn't happen either.  

At any rate, I've lost my interest in hammering away at logical suggestions to save US racing.  I think the majority are status quo types.  

 

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