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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 351808 views.
bisket513

From: bisket513

Aug-28

I want to point out something about that 20 variant and +10 for Forte in the Jim Dandy. The only race they had to compare the Jim Dandy to was an off the turf allowance. That’s why he was +10 for that race. He also received a career best speed figure for that race. I pay more attention to speed figures that are made on big race days. If you go to DRF and click results, then charts scroll to Saratoga 26th. It will give you a list of charts from that day. It will also have a link for track variant. On Saturday there was six different variants. Race 9&10 have their own variant because the dirt track was sealed for those 2 races. Each race on grass was given its own variant because turf conditions changed. Dirt races 1,2,4,6,7,12,13 all have a variant of 10. Every big race day Forte, Tapit Trice, Disarm, Angel of Empire have similar speed figures. There was 7 races to compare, and arrive at a figure on Saturday. Jim Dandy only 1 race to compare. Pay attention to figures earned on big race days because there are more races to compare and the figure is more accurate. I saw your post Saturday, but I didn’t have time explain this to you.

  • Edited August 28, 2023 11:16 am  by  bisket513
bisket513

From: bisket513

Aug-28

That 105 is more reliable than the 106 for Forte.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-28

Thanks for the in put I'm good, you don't need to explain it to me. thanks for your concern

To many other factors like signs of being a right sided horse, He shouid be racing to the right imo

love the horse, he hates being to the left of any body, runs the bends wide to the right.

I didn;t like post one for him. 1st thing he did was go the the right and raced wide again.

Pletcher putting Blinkers on in that one race did not help him go left.

Like Steve says The Japanese trains them going both directions and this is helpful

to all horses that are left sided  and right sided horses,

Bruno said Dixie Union and I'll Have Another are the best examples of left sided horses

and this is just my opinion about Forte . Its more than just Variants.

Most of his Variants are running further than anyone else and I couldn't pick him

for my main reason that the vatiant doesn't say.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-28

Travers  results  from Linebreeding nicks

1st Arcangelo   Fappiano/ Tapit   lines

2nd Disarm    Fappiano /Tapit

3rd Taptit Trice  Tapit/  Fappiano

4th Forte   Sadlers Wells/ Roberto  line

Mr P / thru API lines rule this race Thru  Fappiano and Tapit. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-29

From message 2441 How I  finally played the Travers. I do not want to red board since I didn't
make up my mind until before the start ,I didn't like the Track Conditions.

I will show you a couple of dated tickets from my account since i didn't say before hand

who i was betting and that won't be redboarding after the race without proof,

When Arc odds went to 5-2 late I put money on him, and the last bet a exacta with Arc, Disarm and Mage.

Aug 26 3:19:34 PM Complete Saratoga 12 Win $20.00 2 $20.00  $74.00
Aug 26 3:19:35 PM Complete Saratoga 12 Exacta Box $2.00 2,4,6 $12.00  $72.50

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-29

How my pedigree scoring did in the travers from post 2443.

My Pedigree scoring for the Travers Field for the day they were born
without rating them for their distance run and before meds were used
and any special feed, works, etc First to last best Pedigree IMO.
A very tight group. All G1 elite prospects all hitting the floor on Foal day. 
EDIT : 3 of the top 4 were in the Superfecta , missed 2nd place

1 Arcangelo  won

2 Mage

3 Tapit Trice  3rd

4 Forte   4th

5 Scotland

6 National Treasure

7 Disarm   2nd place,

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-29

How The variants did in the travers  Message 2444

I don't go by the numbers alone and watch the replays to mark each ones trip
Before  we had all these 21st Century speed numbers the variant is what I was weaned on
1950's to 1992 .........when Beyers numbers came out where I was we thought this was a joke
they didn't work on our track, and we were competitive at the major tracks and I spent a lot of
time in Reno and Lake Tahoe 60's, 70's, 80's and on the books at some Casinos. in the 90's I got
Ill and stayed home in the OTB's close to home. Even had one of my mentors close by for a few years.
He thought Beyer was a retard. Back to the Variants .. I liked the Variants for Arc 3 + races different variants
2 gr races. Forte was ok with 2 races +2 if he ran st. would be much better the one hole inside no thanks
he doesn't like that. Disarm 2 plus es and one -1  ok , and Scotland varients ok. the rest were not good Imo
Disarm came in second and I liked it for 2nd place. no Scotland for me.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-29

How Message 2437 did in the Travers

I will be adding info to this when I have time.
Best Speed at Distance:Mage 103 National Treasure 100 Disarm 98,  2nd Place                    PAR 104
Tidbit: Castellano has won 6 Travers,Last 5 winners have raced  at the Spa, 7 of last 10.
last 3 Favorites Won.  Edit: 7 winners now,  2nd Favorite, Sire won the Travers, like sire no race at Spa
Best horse in the race..
----
Travers Race 12:  8/26/23 : 1 1/4 mile Dirt: G1,Non Lasix 3 Yr olds, 126 pounds
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer                  run up
1 Forte P3, 7-5  4th 3 C  L free  4th 126 Ortiz, Jr. Irad Pletcher Todd A.     85 ft
2 Arcangelo P5* 5-2  Won 3 R Lbf 3,4 back 126 Castellano Javier Antonucci Jena M.  52 shortest runup in last
 
3 Tapit Trice P2  12-1  3rd 3 C b 126 Ortiz Jose L. Pletcher Todd A.      56
4 Mage  E6  4-1 3 C 126 Prat Flavien Delgado Gustavo     56
5 National Treasure E6*8-1 3 C L free,b off 126 Velazquez John R. Baffert Bob               52 ^
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-30

Dominant Horse for Travers linebreeding  entrants Most Blood & Influence
-----------
Arcangelo :Influence 3x4
 Unbridled 3s x 4d Unbridled Song, Tap Your Heels F Blood 18.75%, Agr 21.66% 1
Disarm: 4x5
Fappiano  5sx5sx5d Cryptoclearance ,Quiet American, Unbridled 9.38%, Agr 12.12%
Tapit Trice:  3x4
UnBridled  3s x 4d  Tap Your HeelsF, Unbridled Song  18.75% Agr 22.00% 1
Forte : 4x4
Storm Cat 4sx 4d Storming BeautyF, Forestry , 12.50%, agr 16.64% 5
National Treasure : 4x5
Northern Dancer 5s x 6sx 5dx5d, Heroes Honor, Nijinsky,Sadlers Wells, Storm Bird 10.94% Agr13.31% 6
Scotland:4x4
Mr Prospector 4sx 5s x4d SmartStrike,Miswaki,Gone West 15.63% Agr 18.33% 4
Mage :Influence 4x4
Mr Prospector 4s x 5s x 4d Smart Strike,Miswaki,Silver Ghost, 15.63% Agr 19.11% 3
--
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-31

More on this later. EDIT See Next Message.

10th Race- Del Mar - Saturday, September 2nd, 2023

STAKES. 1 1/4 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,000,000. FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic S. (Grade 1). FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD 3 yr olds 118 others 124, 11 entrants, Par speed 105 Bris
only one E #9 Arabian Knight E8,only one S #11 Skinner S2 Both 3 yr olds.
Lasix free :3 Stilletto Boy,#5 Defunded, 7 Slow Down Andy,9 Arabian Knight, 
Lasix last race : #1 4 back, #2- 2 thru 7 back, #4 4 back, #6 2-5, # 8 3-4, #10 Last, #11 4 back
** won this race in 2021.
--

PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Geaux Rocket Ride EP5 3 C 118 Smith Mike E. Mandella Richard E.
2 Katonah p5 scratch 4 G 124 Fresu Antonio O'Neill Doug F.
3 Stilleto Boy EP5 5 G 124 Desormeaux Kent J. Moger, Jr. Ed
4 Tripoli P3** 6 H 124 Pereira Tiago Josue Sadler John W.
5 Defunded EP3 5 G 124 Hernandez Juan J. Baffert Bob
6 Order And Law EP6 7 R
...[Message truncated]
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  • Edited September 2, 2023 7:11 pm  by  smartyslew
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