Horse-Races.Net HRN's Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)|Horse-Races.Net

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping. Hosted by HRN: Horse-Races.Net

  • 546
  • 36972
  • 3


2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 351814 views.

From: smartyslew


Oh yes indeed and the best wet number going in along with the best everything else according to Bris.
and the fastest out of the gate 4 races in a row now and like you mentioned now the 2 9f races won in the slop.

Reincarnate broke 5th, Scotland 2nd. He loves leaving the gate. Cox keeps him wound and I Like his pedigree
if only somebody  else handled him. Still a lot to like.


From: bisket513


The reason I like to use 3 year best times to base my variant is because speed figures aren’t reliable from one track to the next. Meaning a figure at Saratoga won’t be an effective source to compare a figure a horse earned at Santa Anita. When Beyer invented figures an entire card of races were on dirt. Today 1/2 are on grass and 1/2 on dirt, and some tracks add tapeta so 3 different surfaces... There aren’t enough races every day to make reliable variants. So I only trust variants made for each individual track. I don’t try to compare figures in today’s race to a figure a horse made at a different track. Now on big race days where there are multiple graded races on the same day you have more races to compare. On top of that you have multiple horses shipping in. Also everyone at the track for the meet races there best runners.  So figures earned on these days will be a better barometer across multiple tracks. Another words I’ll compare a figure earned derby day to a figure earned Preakness if the runners are in the Travers. Say for Forte, I trust his figures earned at the Fla derby, Belmont, and Travers day. All big race days at each track. If you look at his figures earned on those days they are consistent. In my book Saudi Crown hasn’t earned a reliable figure because he has yet to race on a big day at premier track. On top of that many of his figures were earned on wet tracks. Which is another factor. All the other horses in the Jim Dandy have raced consistently on big race days. Angle of Empire Oaklawn, Churchill, Belmont. So to me Saudi Crown has figures similar to the runners in the Dandy. High 90’s low 100’s. 


From: smartyslew


Blast from the past 2013 ,29th running of the BC Classic page one past  angles for the win By Mucho Macho Man.
Many angles have changed and some haven't. Will Take Charge 2nd, Declaration Of War 3rd.

Tue, Oct 29, 2013 at 2:06 PM
bc classic trends -2013 page 0ne
Beyer Index for classic 116.81, Churchill index 116.81, santa anita index 117+
declaration of war-13b-epitaph-s
flat out-1n-skyscraper-bp,1n-alphabet soup
fort larned-9g-energica-c, fort larned-2012
game on dude-1-l-parrafine lass-s
last gunfighter-2-o,tripping-ic
mucho macho man-4r-artless-c-----zenyatta
palace malice-2s-sweet marjoram-s
planteur-9-the beggar-p
ron the greek-9b-idle fancy-b
will take charge-22c-busy girl

Time from final prep 49 days- 3 winners,42 days-1 winner,
41 days -1 winner,35 days -3 winners,34 days 1 winner,
28 days -2 winners,22 days 2 winners,21 days-5 winners,
20 days-2 winners,14 days-1 winner,12 days 1 winner,7 days 1 winner,
11 winners 20 days to 28 days. 

73 days:declaration of war 69 days:game on dude
42 days:moreno, will take charge 
35 days:fort larned,last gunfighter,mucho macho man,paynter 
flat out,palace malice,ron the greek
28 days:planteur
last year:fort larned 35 days,game on dude-35,ron the greek-35
flat out-35,mucho macho man-63 days
ages:winners, 9- 3 year olds,12-4year olds,7- 5 year olds
thru 2011.
6 yr olds-flat out,
7 yr olds-pool play,richards kid,
no worse than 2nd in last 3 starts.
game on dude,

odds on favorite at least 1 of last 4 starts
alpha,game on dude,mucho macho man,
richards kid,
favorite at least twice in last 4 races.
alpha,game on dude,mucho macho man
ron the greek,to honor and serve
won a gr 1, 1 1/8 mile or longer in at least 1 of last 3 starts.
alpha-11/4,flat out-11/4,fort larned 11/8,
game on dude-11/8,aw-11/4,ron the greek-11/8
to honor and serve-11/8,

Thru 2011 the favorite won 9 times,2nd-7 times,3 thirds
Dosage Index:16 less than 3.00, only 3 winners 4.05 and
higher, Ravens Pass-2008 on aw was 1st since 1986:

all contenders di 4.00 or less,3.01-4.00 range: 5 only winners-negative
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message

From: smartyslew


Some more from 2013 BC Classic pre race.  EDIT IS Done fixed a mistake.
since 2012 only  one Nasrullah or Non Phalaris Bm Sire Has won the Bc Classic *** Flight Line, Caro 2022
Changing of the Guard ,new era.
21 of 29 winners had Nasrullah or a non-phalris sire for Brood mare sire line.
10 nasrullah,11 non phalaris

fort larned: n/broad brush,paynter n/cees tizzy, moreno.nas/ap indy
declaration of war nas/rahy
last year
fort larned n/-broad brush-WInner ,richards kid-n-broad brush-

 pf number 1 1/8 mile or longer
top 5
fort larned 105,66
game on dude 93,93,84
flat out 84-2nd, woodward 
ron the greek 82,78
mucho macho man 81,66
last year
game on dude -93,-75,-83(aw)
fort larned --89,-66
flat out -84,-83,-66,
ron the greek -84,-79.-73
to honor and serve -82,-71,-62
top 5 in a gr1
same except- ron the greek best g1-78
final q times is estimated from past performances
i didn't have race charts
final q 25.20 or better last race 11/8 or further-dirt only
game on dude 24.00,ron the greek 24.60,last gunfighter 24.60-5th,lost footing-start
mucho macho man 24.65,paynter 24.70,flat out 24.90
just missed will take charge 25.25
best bris speed numbers in last race
mucho macho man 113
bris speed number 107 or better in last
mucho macho 113,ron the greek 112,game on dude 108,
paynter 108,
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
  • Edited September 27, 2023 5:06 pm  by  smartyslew
Msg 1770.2530 deleted

From: smartyslew


On Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 08:35:04 PM PDT, 

The Modern Conduit mare profiles utilize a formula similar to Dr. Steve Roman’s Dosage index.  The Conduit Mare Profiles try to answer some of the questions posed by the limited stallion dosage indexes. An example is the Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet who has a dosage that predicts speed (14-12-12-0-0) (5.33), but who was able to carry that speed 1 and 1/4 miles.  Where did this endurance come from?  His conduit mare profile (6-5-1-9-7) (0.75) (12-15-17) offers a hint, with enough female influenced stamina contributions to carry that brilliance over a distance of ground.

The Triads are the point totals when the profile is broken down into three segments.

(B + I + C), (I + C + S), (C + S + P). These numbers indicate where the optimum distance ranges lie. A listing of 15-16-18 would indicate fairly well balanced triads tilting toward stamina, while Triads of 18-14-12 would indicate a sprinter/miler type leaning toward speed. Triads of 10-14-18 would indicate a stamina type best at longer distances, possibly a deep closer.

  • Edited September 28, 2023 2:56 pm  by  smartyslew

From: smartyslew


You can do this for capping and not breeding alone.


A breeder must first establish what type of runner that he/she is seeking. Sprinter/Miler, Router, 

Dirt, Grass or Synthetic surface? The profiles developed in a hypo mating will offer clues

 as to the aptitudes one might expect from the resultant foal, and will also offer assistance 

in selecting a stallion that might best fit the established criteria. 

Creating the profiles on a worksheet gives an in depth look at where the influences are

 coming from, and how they influence the fabric of the pedigree.

The 4 generation pedigree is broken down into segments, with hypos showing how each 

segment interacts. A sample pedigree, would present 16 individuals designating the sources

 of each of the conduit mares (tail female to the mare born circa 1900, and never before that date) in the pedigree (sire = #1, dam = #2, paternal grandsire = #3, and so on.)

...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
  • Edited September 28, 2023 9:05 pm  by  smartyslew

From: Wintertrian


Yes, it took me a while to learn how to use modern conduit mares numbers and chef numbers and combine them for a picture of what I am looking at. Plus plenty of crappy Triads win big classic distance races.  This is why we always say "track performance trumps pedigree" because a horse may be showing they are running more to their sire's side, or their mare's side.    I was a "student" of Bill Lathrop's back when we were on the same forum together and I was always reading his MCM pages. 

Example of one I just got a stable notifcation on, Charge It.   Every time you see that one run the very amplified mare side speed shows up.  So we know, from his track performance, what side he truly favors, because he always runs to it.   

So that is the problem with using any kind of dosage type pedigree, either mare side or sire have to watch the horse for quite a while to figure out what side they are *favoring* or if they are using both sides optimally....

.... OR even if they are being trained to use one side more than the other (which is oftentimes the fault of the trainer, beause they don't really understand this stuff). They are unable to really bring out the true abilities of a horse in a balanced manner.  

Example of that would be Kavod.  Trainer trained him to go to the front as a pacesetter, which I didn't think was his true calling. 


From: smartyslew


Your sentence right here has a double meaning , the Other meaning with Conduits
Sire Side has 8 conduits and the Dam side has 8 conduits  take the word side out
And Use Sires and Dams and I would do the top side Cmp  and the bottom side cmp
the 16 conduit mares  are on both sides to find where the dominant Speed and Stamina come from
What makes it confusing when Talking about  Sires (dosage ) and  Mares (cmp) both are on both sides
Of the Pedigree  and I think when I talk Sires and Dams its what they give to the whole pedigree

Not the Sire Side Only and Not The Dam side only and I think many think thats what I'm talking about.
I know you know Charge it Looks more like his BMSire than his Sire.

"You have to watch the horse for quite a while to figure out what side they are *favoring*.

  • Edited September 28, 2023 10:25 pm  by  smartyslew

From: bisket513


“you have to watch the horse for quite a while to figure out what side they are *favoring* or if they are using both sides optimally....”

This is exactly how I bet Arcangelo in the Belmont. He looked exactly like Arrogate. Arrogate’s talent was he galloped as fast as most horses breeze. Which gave him an edge as distance became longer. Arcangelo was developing at a similar rate; the later stages of their three year old year. Arcangelo works alone in the mornings. Arrogate can’t win the Travers by open lengths if he doesn’t like to run alone. That’s unusual for horses because they’re herd animals and the instinct is not run far from the group because in the wild that’s a ticket to become dinner. After watching the Travers I’m starting to think Arcangelo could beat this group by open lengths if Javy and Jen let him.

watch how Javy after getting squeezed at the break gets great position second inside when they enter the turn. Watch on the backstretch. No way he gives up that position early on the backstretch and loses 3 to 4 lengths from the pace if he doesn’t think Arcangelo is much the best. He gave up track position a jock would love to have, falls off the pace, and circles 4 wide on the turn. He doesn’t do that without feeling his horse is just playing with them. Lol one of Jen’s best decisions was having Javy work him in the mornings. No way after sitting on a horse like that on a regular basis he gives up that mount. He knows going into the Travers he’s sitting on a Ferrari and the other jocks are on a Pinto. Lol

the only thing I challenge in your statement is “quite awhile” if you know what you’re looking for only a race or two. I don’t know if a bet Arcangelo in the Belmont at lower odds than I thought I would get if he didn’t essentially breeze twice in 4 days before the race. That showed he gallops as fast as other horses breeze. 

  • Edited September 29, 2023 10:44 am  by  bisket513