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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 345694 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-27

Some more from 2013 BC Classic pre race.  EDIT IS Done fixed a mistake.
--------
since 2012 only  one Nasrullah or Non Phalaris Bm Sire Has won the Bc Classic *** Flight Line, Caro 2022
Changing of the Guard ,new era.
21 of 29 winners had Nasrullah or a non-phalris sire for Brood mare sire line.
10 nasrullah,11 non phalaris

fort larned: n/broad brush,paynter n/cees tizzy, moreno.nas/ap indy
declaration of war nas/rahy
last year
fort larned n/-broad brush-WInner ,richards kid-n-broad brush-

 pf number 1 1/8 mile or longer
top 5
fort larned 105,66
game on dude 93,93,84
flat out 84-2nd, woodward 
ron the greek 82,78
mucho macho man 81,66
last year
game on dude -93,-75,-83(aw)
fort larned --89,-66
flat out -84,-83,-66,
ron the greek -84,-79.-73
to honor and serve -82,-71,-62
top 5 in a gr1
same except- ron the greek best g1-78
---
final q times is estimated from past performances
i didn't have race charts
final q 25.20 or better last race 11/8 or further-dirt only
game on dude 24.00,ron the greek 24.60,last gunfighter 24.60-5th,lost footing-start
mucho macho man 24.65,paynter 24.70,flat out 24.90
just missed will take charge 25.25
--
best bris speed numbers in last race
mucho macho man 113
bris speed number 107 or better in last
mucho macho 113,ron the greek 112,game on dude 108,
paynter 108,
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  • Edited September 27, 2023 5:06 pm  by  smartyslew
Msg 1770.2530 deleted
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-28

On Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 08:35:04 PM PDT, 

The Modern Conduit mare profiles utilize a formula similar to Dr. Steve Roman’s Dosage index.  The Conduit Mare Profiles try to answer some of the questions posed by the limited stallion dosage indexes. An example is the Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet who has a dosage that predicts speed (14-12-12-0-0) (5.33), but who was able to carry that speed 1 and 1/4 miles.  Where did this endurance come from?  His conduit mare profile (6-5-1-9-7) (0.75) (12-15-17) offers a hint, with enough female influenced stamina contributions to carry that brilliance over a distance of ground.

The Triads are the point totals when the profile is broken down into three segments.

(B + I + C), (I + C + S), (C + S + P). These numbers indicate where the optimum distance ranges lie. A listing of 15-16-18 would indicate fairly well balanced triads tilting toward stamina, while Triads of 18-14-12 would indicate a sprinter/miler type leaning toward speed. Triads of 10-14-18 would indicate a stamina type best at longer distances, possibly a deep closer.

  • Edited September 28, 2023 2:56 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-28

You can do this for capping and not breeding alone.

BREEDING APPLICATIONS by Bill Lathrop

A breeder must first establish what type of runner that he/she is seeking. Sprinter/Miler, Router, 

Dirt, Grass or Synthetic surface? The profiles developed in a hypo mating will offer clues

 as to the aptitudes one might expect from the resultant foal, and will also offer assistance 

in selecting a stallion that might best fit the established criteria. 

Creating the profiles on a worksheet gives an in depth look at where the influences are

 coming from, and how they influence the fabric of the pedigree.

The 4 generation pedigree is broken down into segments, with hypos showing how each 

segment interacts. A sample pedigree, would present 16 individuals designating the sources

 of each of the conduit mares (tail female to the mare born circa 1900, and never before that date) in the pedigree (sire = #1, dam = #2, paternal grandsire = #3, and so on.)

...[Message truncated]
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  • Edited September 28, 2023 9:05 pm  by  smartyslew
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-28

Yes, it took me a while to learn how to use modern conduit mares numbers and chef numbers and combine them for a picture of what I am looking at. Plus plenty of crappy Triads win big classic distance races.  This is why we always say "track performance trumps pedigree" because a horse may be showing they are running more to their sire's side, or their mare's side.    I was a "student" of Bill Lathrop's back when we were on the same forum together and I was always reading his MCM pages. 

Example of one I just got a stable notifcation on, Charge It.   Every time you see that one run the very amplified mare side speed shows up.  So we know, from his track performance, what side he truly favors, because he always runs to it.   

So that is the problem with using any kind of dosage type pedigree, either mare side or sire side...you have to watch the horse for quite a while to figure out what side they are *favoring* or if they are using both sides optimally....

.... OR even if they are being trained to use one side more than the other (which is oftentimes the fault of the trainer, beause they don't really understand this stuff). They are unable to really bring out the true abilities of a horse in a balanced manner.  

Example of that would be Kavod.  Trainer trained him to go to the front as a pacesetter, which I didn't think was his true calling. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-28

Your sentence right here has a double meaning , the Other meaning with Conduits
Sire Side has 8 conduits and the Dam side has 8 conduits  take the word side out
And Use Sires and Dams and I would do the top side Cmp  and the bottom side cmp
the 16 conduit mares  are on both sides to find where the dominant Speed and Stamina come from
What makes it confusing when Talking about  Sires (dosage ) and  Mares (cmp) both are on both sides
Of the Pedigree  and I think when I talk Sires and Dams its what they give to the whole pedigree

Not the Sire Side Only and Not The Dam side only and I think many think thats what I'm talking about.
I know you know Charge it Looks more like his BMSire than his Sire.


"You have to watch the horse for quite a while to figure out what side they are *favoring*.

  • Edited September 28, 2023 10:25 pm  by  smartyslew
bisket513

From: bisket513

Sep-29

“you have to watch the horse for quite a while to figure out what side they are *favoring* or if they are using both sides optimally....”

This is exactly how I bet Arcangelo in the Belmont. He looked exactly like Arrogate. Arrogate’s talent was he galloped as fast as most horses breeze. Which gave him an edge as distance became longer. Arcangelo was developing at a similar rate; the later stages of their three year old year. Arcangelo works alone in the mornings. Arrogate can’t win the Travers by open lengths if he doesn’t like to run alone. That’s unusual for horses because they’re herd animals and the instinct is not run far from the group because in the wild that’s a ticket to become dinner. After watching the Travers I’m starting to think Arcangelo could beat this group by open lengths if Javy and Jen let him. 
 

https://youtu.be/jidTk3vhUME?si=nPLTh1WJOh2Oer-F

watch how Javy after getting squeezed at the break gets great position second inside when they enter the turn. Watch on the backstretch. No way he gives up that position early on the backstretch and loses 3 to 4 lengths from the pace if he doesn’t think Arcangelo is much the best. He gave up track position a jock would love to have, falls off the pace, and circles 4 wide on the turn. He doesn’t do that without feeling his horse is just playing with them. Lol one of Jen’s best decisions was having Javy work him in the mornings. No way after sitting on a horse like that on a regular basis he gives up that mount. He knows going into the Travers he’s sitting on a Ferrari and the other jocks are on a Pinto. Lol

the only thing I challenge in your statement is “quite awhile” if you know what you’re looking for only a race or two. I don’t know if a bet Arcangelo in the Belmont at lower odds than I thought I would get if he didn’t essentially breeze twice in 4 days before the race. That showed he gallops as fast as other horses breeze. 

  • Edited September 29, 2023 10:44 am  by  bisket513
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Sep-29

"And here's Disarm with a menacing move."  Hahaha.  Never in a hundred races is Disarm going to run-up and catch Arcangelo.  I guess the announcer was trying from some fake drama.  

It will take an international horse to give Arcangelo a race, IMO.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-29

This sentence from Bill hypo mating the different positions in a pedigree even

sire to sire and Mare to Mare helps learning the influence for the target horse

for the up close most blood and the foundation of the most crosses for the sire

is it   Nearco with 30 crosses or Teddy with 35 crosses or St Simon or Pocahantas sons

Like Stockwell.... that is way to much work for cappin one race, more for breeding

"The hypo mating itself takes care of segments 1, and 2. I then do a hypo mating of the 

conduit mares of positions 1 and 2, to see any root relationships that the two conduit mares 

may have, and what kind of genetic foundation they establish. I then repeat this procedure

 with position 3 and 4, then with 5 and 7, then 6 and 8. This is usually enough to get an idea 

of where any genetic concentrations, or lack thereof lie, and what aptitudinal influences 

are present. "

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-29

bisket513 said...

This is exactly how I bet Arcangelo in the Belmont. He looked exactly like Arrogate.

My post really had nothing to do with "look-a-likes" at all. 

If that were the case then maybe you can explain why Artorius's run in the Travers last year was dismal, how Jasper Great did horribly, and what it is in the pedigree that made it work for Arcangelo. Heck, even compare to Slip Mahoney.  

Because Arrogate throws those really high sire side dosage indexes....8.60 in Arcangelo, and 10.0 in Artorius, Jasper Great 8.60.  Mirasol 11.0 (also trained by Baffert), Dover Dreams 7.80, Adversity 7.00, Affable Monarch, Catiche 5.18, Leddy 7.80, Slip Mahoney 5.40.   

And, in a classic distance race, extremely exaggerated speed like that would be something I would normally avoid like the plague. 

By the end of 2021, only horses by Arrogate who had run longer than 8.50 were Ju Taro, Foolish Hobby, Poison Arrow, and Jasper Great and those were in Japan. Even Secret Oath had not won at more than 8.5F at that point. 

My post was more a note about how to look at both sides of the pedigree, and how CMP and Dosage figure into that. 

Quite frankly, without Tapit on the bottom, Arcangelo would have just been another Artorius or Slip Mahoney.  Looking at the CMP tells the story.... 

Arrogate didn't race until April of his 3 yo year.  That also tells you something.  For quite a while there, it seemed to breeders that Arrogate was a sire that was going into the lost-and-found.

(and, No offense but it becomes a little hard to take when you redboard a horse you won on, almost constantly, and keep saying "Arrogate" but you haven't made the necessary comparisons to convince me of anything.)   As for the lookalike thing, I can go thru Arrogate's 3 crops and find you horses who looked more like him than Arcangelo does.   Did you follow his 3 crops before Arcangelo? 

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