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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 351805 views.

From: smartyslew


You can do this for capping and not breeding alone.


A breeder must first establish what type of runner that he/she is seeking. Sprinter/Miler, Router, 

Dirt, Grass or Synthetic surface? The profiles developed in a hypo mating will offer clues

 as to the aptitudes one might expect from the resultant foal, and will also offer assistance 

in selecting a stallion that might best fit the established criteria. 

Creating the profiles on a worksheet gives an in depth look at where the influences are

 coming from, and how they influence the fabric of the pedigree.

The 4 generation pedigree is broken down into segments, with hypos showing how each 

segment interacts. A sample pedigree, would present 16 individuals designating the sources

 of each of the conduit mares (tail female to the mare born circa 1900, and never before that date) in the pedigree (sire = #1, dam = #2, paternal grandsire = #3, and so on.)

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  • Edited September 28, 2023 9:05 pm  by  smartyslew

From: Wintertrian


Yes, it took me a while to learn how to use modern conduit mares numbers and chef numbers and combine them for a picture of what I am looking at. Plus plenty of crappy Triads win big classic distance races.  This is why we always say "track performance trumps pedigree" because a horse may be showing they are running more to their sire's side, or their mare's side.    I was a "student" of Bill Lathrop's back when we were on the same forum together and I was always reading his MCM pages. 

Example of one I just got a stable notifcation on, Charge It.   Every time you see that one run the very amplified mare side speed shows up.  So we know, from his track performance, what side he truly favors, because he always runs to it.   

So that is the problem with using any kind of dosage type pedigree, either mare side or sire have to watch the horse for quite a while to figure out what side they are *favoring* or if they are using both sides optimally....

.... OR even if they are being trained to use one side more than the other (which is oftentimes the fault of the trainer, beause they don't really understand this stuff). They are unable to really bring out the true abilities of a horse in a balanced manner.  

Example of that would be Kavod.  Trainer trained him to go to the front as a pacesetter, which I didn't think was his true calling. 


From: smartyslew


Your sentence right here has a double meaning , the Other meaning with Conduits
Sire Side has 8 conduits and the Dam side has 8 conduits  take the word side out
And Use Sires and Dams and I would do the top side Cmp  and the bottom side cmp
the 16 conduit mares  are on both sides to find where the dominant Speed and Stamina come from
What makes it confusing when Talking about  Sires (dosage ) and  Mares (cmp) both are on both sides
Of the Pedigree  and I think when I talk Sires and Dams its what they give to the whole pedigree

Not the Sire Side Only and Not The Dam side only and I think many think thats what I'm talking about.
I know you know Charge it Looks more like his BMSire than his Sire.

"You have to watch the horse for quite a while to figure out what side they are *favoring*.

  • Edited September 28, 2023 10:25 pm  by  smartyslew

From: bisket513


“you have to watch the horse for quite a while to figure out what side they are *favoring* or if they are using both sides optimally....”

This is exactly how I bet Arcangelo in the Belmont. He looked exactly like Arrogate. Arrogate’s talent was he galloped as fast as most horses breeze. Which gave him an edge as distance became longer. Arcangelo was developing at a similar rate; the later stages of their three year old year. Arcangelo works alone in the mornings. Arrogate can’t win the Travers by open lengths if he doesn’t like to run alone. That’s unusual for horses because they’re herd animals and the instinct is not run far from the group because in the wild that’s a ticket to become dinner. After watching the Travers I’m starting to think Arcangelo could beat this group by open lengths if Javy and Jen let him.

watch how Javy after getting squeezed at the break gets great position second inside when they enter the turn. Watch on the backstretch. No way he gives up that position early on the backstretch and loses 3 to 4 lengths from the pace if he doesn’t think Arcangelo is much the best. He gave up track position a jock would love to have, falls off the pace, and circles 4 wide on the turn. He doesn’t do that without feeling his horse is just playing with them. Lol one of Jen’s best decisions was having Javy work him in the mornings. No way after sitting on a horse like that on a regular basis he gives up that mount. He knows going into the Travers he’s sitting on a Ferrari and the other jocks are on a Pinto. Lol

the only thing I challenge in your statement is “quite awhile” if you know what you’re looking for only a race or two. I don’t know if a bet Arcangelo in the Belmont at lower odds than I thought I would get if he didn’t essentially breeze twice in 4 days before the race. That showed he gallops as fast as other horses breeze. 

  • Edited September 29, 2023 10:44 am  by  bisket513
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G


"And here's Disarm with a menacing move."  Hahaha.  Never in a hundred races is Disarm going to run-up and catch Arcangelo.  I guess the announcer was trying from some fake drama.  

It will take an international horse to give Arcangelo a race, IMO.  


From: smartyslew


This sentence from Bill hypo mating the different positions in a pedigree even

sire to sire and Mare to Mare helps learning the influence for the target horse

for the up close most blood and the foundation of the most crosses for the sire

is it   Nearco with 30 crosses or Teddy with 35 crosses or St Simon or Pocahantas sons

Like Stockwell.... that is way to much work for cappin one race, more for breeding

"The hypo mating itself takes care of segments 1, and 2. I then do a hypo mating of the 

conduit mares of positions 1 and 2, to see any root relationships that the two conduit mares 

may have, and what kind of genetic foundation they establish. I then repeat this procedure

 with position 3 and 4, then with 5 and 7, then 6 and 8. This is usually enough to get an idea 

of where any genetic concentrations, or lack thereof lie, and what aptitudinal influences 

are present. "


From: Wintertrian


bisket513 said...

This is exactly how I bet Arcangelo in the Belmont. He looked exactly like Arrogate.

My post really had nothing to do with "look-a-likes" at all. 

If that were the case then maybe you can explain why Artorius's run in the Travers last year was dismal, how Jasper Great did horribly, and what it is in the pedigree that made it work for Arcangelo. Heck, even compare to Slip Mahoney.  

Because Arrogate throws those really high sire side dosage indexes....8.60 in Arcangelo, and 10.0 in Artorius, Jasper Great 8.60.  Mirasol 11.0 (also trained by Baffert), Dover Dreams 7.80, Adversity 7.00, Affable Monarch, Catiche 5.18, Leddy 7.80, Slip Mahoney 5.40.   

And, in a classic distance race, extremely exaggerated speed like that would be something I would normally avoid like the plague. 

By the end of 2021, only horses by Arrogate who had run longer than 8.50 were Ju Taro, Foolish Hobby, Poison Arrow, and Jasper Great and those were in Japan. Even Secret Oath had not won at more than 8.5F at that point. 

My post was more a note about how to look at both sides of the pedigree, and how CMP and Dosage figure into that. 

Quite frankly, without Tapit on the bottom, Arcangelo would have just been another Artorius or Slip Mahoney.  Looking at the CMP tells the story.... 

Arrogate didn't race until April of his 3 yo year.  That also tells you something.  For quite a while there, it seemed to breeders that Arrogate was a sire that was going into the lost-and-found.

(and, No offense but it becomes a little hard to take when you redboard a horse you won on, almost constantly, and keep saying "Arrogate" but you haven't made the necessary comparisons to convince me of anything.)   As for the lookalike thing, I can go thru Arrogate's 3 crops and find you horses who looked more like him than Arcangelo does.   Did you follow his 3 crops before Arcangelo? 


From: bisket513


It’s a shame that Arrogate didn’t live longer because a lot of time finding the right mare and sire combination isn’t science. I’m glad Arcangelo is achieving what he is on the track. He can possibly transmit his greatness to another generation with a small sample of his sire’s bloodline. A lot of time greatness is a matter of chance. Ack Ack was nothing until a breeding produced Broad Brush. Science can assist breeding in a broad sense, but sometimes things are just left to chance. Hopefully Arcangelo’s likeness is given the time to succeed that he was afforded. 


From: smartyslew


Don't you think Tapit gets a little glory  for Arcangelo and most of all more impottant imo

is his Tail Female Family  8f 3rd Dam Better Than Honour  Dam Of Rag To Riches and Jazil in the 3rd

generation up close for 3 Belmont winners including Arcangelo and The TFF is one of the top 5 Stamina families IMO.

Here is his top influence up close. Unbridled Has the Grand Sire Unbridleds Song and Tapits DAM Tap your Heels  18.75 
per cent blood 3Sx4d  generation influence, Deputy Minister is next with 12.50 per cent  Grechelle Arrogate's 2nd Dam
on the Sire side and The 3rd Dam Better Than Honour a REines on Arcangelos Dam Side 4s x 4d, Its positive for
Both Sires to be up close on both sides for the Fappiano / Bms AP Indy nick thats killing it this year,
Nor dancer has 6 crosses. this isn't Chance its the Number one nick in North America, its the breeders doing it.

ARCANGELO C, 2020 DP = 3-16-5-0-0 (24) DI = 8.60   CD = 0.92

Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
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  • Edited September 29, 2023 10:52 pm  by  smartyslew

From: Wintertrian


bisket513 said...

I’m glad Arcangelo is achieving what he is on the track

Me, too.  I was just pointing out that Arrogate wasn't the reason Arcangelo turned out the way he did IMHO.  Arrogate's crops in general were not stellar.   IMHO, his claim to fame was....beating Gun Runner in the Travers......before Gun Runner developed into the Gun Runner we all know and love.   

In his first BC Classic, Arrogate was carrying only 122 pounds...Calif Chrome and Keen Ice were carrying 126, and he barely got by Chrome.  Barely.  His Pegasus was utterly unimpressive ..... Calif Chrome was considered 'fried" by that time and there was little else in that race of note.  By the time the next BC Classic came around, Gun Runner showed what was what, and what was going to be.....but I remember, the word even before that race was the Arrogate was maybe going to be retired.  (and probalby should have been, maybe something really was wrong with his legs).   

The only race I like Arrogate in was the one in Dubai. After which, he was never the same.  Despite Baffy saying he won that  "like it was nothing" .  And of course, baffert blamed the horse, said "he just didn't want to run anymore", Baffy needs to learn what the phrase "cooked" means.  

You cooked him, Bob.  And then said he was the best horse you ever trained  (despite we all noticed his many inconsistencies) ....he said the same about Point Given, then the same about American Pharoah, blah blah blah.)  Sort of like his crocodile tears, things start to look insincere when you keep saying the same things about all of your horses. 

But you are correct about finding the right matings.   I think Arrogates size negatively impacted him when it came to shed.  He will be remembered as north america's richest racehorse, because that's how he was campaigned.  IMHO I speak of him not with disrespect, but with actual sadness. Any horse put thru the rigors of the baffert program has gotta have some conformational problems by the time they leave the track.  Arrogate never got a relaxing retirement and I do think there was something wrong with his front legs at that point.