This sentence from Bill hypo mating the different positions in a pedigree even

sire to sire and Mare to Mare helps learning the influence for the target horse

for the up close most blood and the foundation of the most crosses for the sire

is it   Nearco with 30 crosses or Teddy with 35 crosses or St Simon or Pocahantas sons

Like Stockwell.... that is way to much work for cappin one race, more for breeding

"The hypo mating itself takes care of segments 1, and 2. I then do a hypo mating of the 

conduit mares of positions 1 and 2, to see any root relationships that the two conduit mares 

may have, and what kind of genetic foundation they establish. I then repeat this procedure

 with position 3 and 4, then with 5 and 7, then 6 and 8. This is usually enough to get an idea 

of where any genetic concentrations, or lack thereof lie, and what aptitudinal influences 

are present. "

bisket513 said...

This is exactly how I bet Arcangelo in the Belmont. He looked exactly like Arrogate.

My post really had nothing to do with "look-a-likes" at all. 

If that were the case then maybe you can explain why Artorius's run in the Travers last year was dismal, how Jasper Great did horribly, and what it is in the pedigree that made it work for Arcangelo. Heck, even compare to Slip Mahoney.  

Because Arrogate throws those really high sire side dosage indexes....8.60 in Arcangelo, and 10.0 in Artorius, Jasper Great 8.60.  Mirasol 11.0 (also trained by Baffert), Dover Dreams 7.80, Adversity 7.00, Affable Monarch, Catiche 5.18, Leddy 7.80, Slip Mahoney 5.40.   

And, in a classic distance race, extremely exaggerated speed like that would be something I would normally avoid like the plague. 

By the end of 2021, only horses by Arrogate who had run longer than 8.50 were Ju Taro, Foolish Hobby, Poison Arrow, and Jasper Great and those were in Japan. Even Secret Oath had not won at more than 8.5F at that point. 

My post was more a note about how to look at both sides of the pedigree, and how CMP and Dosage figure into that. 

Quite frankly, without Tapit on the bottom, Arcangelo would have just been another Artorius or Slip Mahoney.  Looking at the CMP tells the story.... 

Arrogate didn't race until April of his 3 yo year.  That also tells you something.  For quite a while there, it seemed to breeders that Arrogate was a sire that was going into the lost-and-found.

(and, No offense but it becomes a little hard to take when you redboard a horse you won on, almost constantly, and keep saying "Arrogate" but you haven't made the necessary comparisons to convince me of anything.)   As for the lookalike thing, I can go thru Arrogate's 3 crops and find you horses who looked more like him than Arcangelo does.   Did you follow his 3 crops before Arcangelo? 

It’s a shame that Arrogate didn’t live longer because a lot of time finding the right mare and sire combination isn’t science. I’m glad Arcangelo is achieving what he is on the track. He can possibly transmit his greatness to another generation with a small sample of his sire’s bloodline. A lot of time greatness is a matter of chance. Ack Ack was nothing until a breeding produced Broad Brush. Science can assist breeding in a broad sense, but sometimes things are just left to chance. Hopefully Arcangelo’s likeness is given the time to succeed that he was afforded. 

Don't you think Tapit gets a little glory  for Arcangelo and most of all more impottant imo

is his Tail Female Family  8f 3rd Dam Better Than Honour  Dam Of Rag To Riches and Jazil in the 3rd

generation up close for 3 Belmont winners including Arcangelo and The TFF is one of the top 5 Stamina families IMO.

Here is his top influence up close. Unbridled Has the Grand Sire Unbridleds Song and Tapits DAM Tap your Heels  18.75 
per cent blood 3Sx4d  generation influence, Deputy Minister is next with 12.50 per cent  Grechelle Arrogate's 2nd Dam
on the Sire side and The 3rd Dam Better Than Honour a REines on Arcangelos Dam Side 4s x 4d, Its positive for
Both Sires to be up close on both sides for the Fappiano / Bms AP Indy nick thats killing it this year,
Nor dancer has 6 crosses. this isn't Chance its the Number one nick in North America, its the breeders doing it.

ARCANGELO C, 2020 DP = 3-16-5-0-0 (24) DI = 8.60   CD = 0.92

bisket513 said...

I’m glad Arcangelo is achieving what he is on the track

Me, too.  I was just pointing out that Arrogate wasn't the reason Arcangelo turned out the way he did IMHO.  Arrogate's crops in general were not stellar.   IMHO, his claim to fame was....beating Gun Runner in the Travers......before Gun Runner developed into the Gun Runner we all know and love.   

In his first BC Classic, Arrogate was carrying only 122 pounds...Calif Chrome and Keen Ice were carrying 126, and he barely got by Chrome.  Barely.  His Pegasus was utterly unimpressive ..... Calif Chrome was considered 'fried" by that time and there was little else in that race of note.  By the time the next BC Classic came around, Gun Runner showed what was what, and what was going to be.....but I remember, the word even before that race was the Arrogate was maybe going to be retired.  (and probalby should have been, maybe something really was wrong with his legs).   

The only race I like Arrogate in was the one in Dubai. After which, he was never the same.  Despite Baffy saying he won that  "like it was nothing" .  And of course, baffert blamed the horse, said "he just didn't want to run anymore"........um, Baffy needs to learn what the phrase "cooked" means.  

You cooked him, Bob.  And then said he was the best horse you ever trained  (despite we all noticed his many inconsistencies) ....he said the same about Point Given, then the same about American Pharoah, blah blah blah.)  Sort of like his crocodile tears, things start to look insincere when you keep saying the same things about all of your horses. 

But you are correct about finding the right matings.   I think Arrogates size negatively impacted him when it came to shed.  He will be remembered as north america's richest racehorse, because that's how he was campaigned.  IMHO I speak of him not with disrespect, but with actual sadness. Any horse put thru the rigors of the baffert program has gotta have some conformational problems by the time they leave the track.  Arrogate never got a relaxing retirement and I do think there was something wrong with his front legs at that point.  

Steve Roman on facebook

As the sire of Raise a Native and the broodmare sire of Northern Dancer, has there been a more influential Thoroughbred stallion than Native Dancer? He appears in the pedigree of every one of the current 25 leading sires on the international sire list covering North America, England, Japan and Australia. He may appear in the pedigree of every sire on the list. Just wondering.

My answer is yes Native Dancer is the most influential sire in modern day racing. The derby had to be his only loss….

I'm not saying any thing against Nat Dan you might like to know that AP Indy doesn't

have Native Dancer in his pedigree, has N.D, Sire Polynesian in his sire and Bmsline.

that turned out to be a good outlier and he was mated to many Dams that have Native Dancer in their

pedigree. Some can make a case that Polynesian is the s ource, I'm not saying that, Its a possibility

and only for information. Using him today Polynesian or not API fits with  horses that have Something Royal

Dam of Secretariat and Sir Gaylord and API has Two lines of that Mare to pass on a passing position of Her Sire

Princequillo X factor Large Heart, API bred to Pedigrees with Princequillo daughters in a Passing Position or

Storm Cat or Gone West, API, Dehere, Summer Squall all daughters of Secretariat are key  of grade one winners in 2023.

this is the key to Marraige Nicks that are gr one winners in 2023 imo....

win and your in Bc Races start this weekend,  Here is the schedule if interested.

https://www.breederscup.com/races/challenge-series?tab=schedule

- Race 8 Keeneland - Friday, October 6th, 2023 Results. love the winners pedigree Last1/16 5.99

Conditions: 1 1/16 MILES (Turf) STAKES. Jessamine S. presented by Keeneland November (Grade II). FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD.
Purse: $350,000 Value of Race: $350,000 1st $200,725 2nd $64,750 3rd $32,375 4th $16,188 5th $9,712 6th $4,375 7th $4,375 8th $4,375 9th $4,375 10th $4,375 11th $4,375    Mutuel Pool: $676,302 Pick 3 Pool: $85,537 Daily Double Pool: $66,610 Exacta Pool: $393,429 Superfecta Pool: $125,680 Trifecta Pool: $220,240