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Current 3-year-old crop   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 401719 views.
Gerh

From: Gerh

Dec-2

Looks like an interesting race.A just watch for me because of the conditions 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-2

Message 2649 this thread, 2 on my list finished 1-2 in the Remsen Stakes 9f at Aq today race 9 

the only 2 on my list in the race.  Dornotch First, Sierra Leone  second and their 2nd race this year.

there is room for improvement and just maybe the Derby distance is in their reach

I suggest watch the replays of their first Race. BTW Dornoch is a brother to Mage.
 

edit : Fastest Remsen in about 10 years and on a sealed wet track  

Thunder Gulch last Derby winner to win the Remsen in 96.

Replay looked like J Ortiz thought he won the race when he passed Dornach and took his left hand push

off of the horse who lugged in and had to reengage , might of cost him the win, check it out and let me know what you think.!!

  • Edited December 5, 2023 1:12 am  by  smartyslew
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Dec-2

Loved them both, could be rivals in the upcoming TC campaign....

Btw, did you catch Dutrow's El Capi in his debut?  Wow, very fast in off conditions, impressive!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-2

El Capi impressive yes, Maccleans Music throws sprinter miler types the big unknown is his Tail female Family Colonial 2.(C2 )

Its been decades  since I seen one of those and unknown, However The Bms Sire Flatter has War Admiral and La troienne up the middle

and in a good Placement.

Equibase awarded a E 91, light in my view with that hand ride.

  • Edited December 2, 2023 10:41 pm  by  smartyslew
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Dec-6

I wasn't sure about Sierra's ride.....looking back, I think you're right; after passing Dornoch, he assumed he won, and somehow lost momentum.  The track seemed tiring, so Dornoch was not expected to come back.  Showed great heart.

Which of the two do you think is more Derby worthy?  I expect them both to improve myself.....and yes, by far the most impressive Remsen in years.  That race literally never produces Derby competitors, but I think it could be different this year.

BTW, Circa released their futures lines today.....and Dornoch is 35-1, Sierra is 50, and El Capi is 75.....

Thoughts?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-6

Dornach has 4 races 4-2-2, Sierra Leone 2 races 2-1-1, Top Prospects, different styles
Coolmoor Paid 2.3 Mil for Sierra, Dornoch cost $325 thousand returned 257 thousand
already. Sierra in his second race run at 9f, came from to far back imo with those Giant 
strides, Dornoch in his 4th race part of the pace thruout comes back down the stretch
after getting past and grabs the lead and wins , more races more fit and I think both
needs time off after that taxing race Finish, like mature 3 yr olds even though both were green.
It could be to much to soon.You putting money on the 50-1 ? or 75-1?
---------
Owner: Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael B., Smith, Derrick, Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing, LLC and Brant, Peter M.
    Breeder: Debby M. Oxley
State Bred: KY
  Winnings: 2 Starts: 1 - 1 - 0, $96,750
Sierra Leone   Gun Runner/ Malibu Moon
USA) dkb/br. C, 2021 {2-b} DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 - GSV = 52.94 - 2 Starts, 1 Wins, 1 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: $96,750
At 2: 2nd Remsen S. (G2, AQU, 9f)

Foaled March 31, 2021 - FTSAUG'22 $2.3M  Really!

Updated 3Dec2023

 
DORNOCH  Good Magic / Big  Brown
 (USA) b. C, 2021 {5-g} DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57 - GSV = 50.85 - 4 Starts, 2 Wins, 2 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: $257,400
      Owner: We
...[Message truncated]
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  • Edited December 6, 2023 2:12 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-6

the finish was Intense for 2 year olds ,thats the word I was looking for

Intensity is the quality of being felt strongly or having a very strong effect, the strength of something that can be measured such as light, sound, etc., or the quality of being very serious and having

the quality of being extreme in strength or force:

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Dec-6

I completely agree....no doubt they will be given time off.  It seemed to be more intense for Dornoch than Sierra, as Sierra either lost focus, or was inattentively ridden.  Thinking more upside there, better price too.

Any UTR that you think should be under consideration from your list at this early point.....for an attractive price?  I can report back the price on Circa....

Gerh

From: Gerh

Dec-6

I thought Drum Roll Please ran a sneaky good race considering he was wide throughout.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-6

I think the Winner forwardly placed raced in the inside Bias after watching a few more replays

and he showed Heart and came back to win ,saying that I like Sierra better from my eye test and 

researched the splits Sierra was 13 ,12 lengths behind and came real wide and got the lead at a mile by the chart

on the wrong lead, lugged in and I noticed when he passed Drum Roll Please who tried hard on the outside

Missing the inside bias and stuck out their longer than Sierra, we will have to see how the entrants from the race do

in their next races to get a Idea how good this race matches up with other Point races,

Coolmore paid Big Bucks for this horse and gave him to Brown instead of Obrien might mean something.

anyway real early I have 2 horses penciled in for the Derby Sierra Leone and Nash.

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