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Current 3-year-old crop   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 400551 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-2

El Capi impressive yes, Maccleans Music throws sprinter miler types the big unknown is his Tail female Family Colonial 2.(C2 )

Its been decades  since I seen one of those and unknown, However The Bms Sire Flatter has War Admiral and La troienne up the middle

and in a good Placement.

Equibase awarded a E 91, light in my view with that hand ride.

  • Edited December 2, 2023 10:41 pm  by  smartyslew
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Dec-6

I wasn't sure about Sierra's ride.....looking back, I think you're right; after passing Dornoch, he assumed he won, and somehow lost momentum.  The track seemed tiring, so Dornoch was not expected to come back.  Showed great heart.

Which of the two do you think is more Derby worthy?  I expect them both to improve myself.....and yes, by far the most impressive Remsen in years.  That race literally never produces Derby competitors, but I think it could be different this year.

BTW, Circa released their futures lines today.....and Dornoch is 35-1, Sierra is 50, and El Capi is 75.....

Thoughts?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-6

Dornach has 4 races 4-2-2, Sierra Leone 2 races 2-1-1, Top Prospects, different styles
Coolmoor Paid 2.3 Mil for Sierra, Dornoch cost $325 thousand returned 257 thousand
already. Sierra in his second race run at 9f, came from to far back imo with those Giant 
strides, Dornoch in his 4th race part of the pace thruout comes back down the stretch
after getting past and grabs the lead and wins , more races more fit and I think both
needs time off after that taxing race Finish, like mature 3 yr olds even though both were green.
It could be to much to soon.You putting money on the 50-1 ? or 75-1?
---------
Owner: Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael B., Smith, Derrick, Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing, LLC and Brant, Peter M.
    Breeder: Debby M. Oxley
State Bred: KY
  Winnings: 2 Starts: 1 - 1 - 0, $96,750
Sierra Leone   Gun Runner/ Malibu Moon
USA) dkb/br. C, 2021 {2-b} DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 - GSV = 52.94 - 2 Starts, 1 Wins, 1 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: $96,750
At 2: 2nd Remsen S. (G2, AQU, 9f)

Foaled March 31, 2021 - FTSAUG'22 $2.3M  Really!

Updated 3Dec2023

 
DORNOCH  Good Magic / Big  Brown
 (USA) b. C, 2021 {5-g} DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57 - GSV = 50.85 - 4 Starts, 2 Wins, 2 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: $257,400
      Owner: We
...[Message truncated]
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  • Edited December 6, 2023 2:12 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-6

the finish was Intense for 2 year olds ,thats the word I was looking for

Intensity is the quality of being felt strongly or having a very strong effect, the strength of something that can be measured such as light, sound, etc., or the quality of being very serious and having

the quality of being extreme in strength or force:

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Dec-6

I completely agree....no doubt they will be given time off.  It seemed to be more intense for Dornoch than Sierra, as Sierra either lost focus, or was inattentively ridden.  Thinking more upside there, better price too.

Any UTR that you think should be under consideration from your list at this early point.....for an attractive price?  I can report back the price on Circa....

Gerh

From: Gerh

Dec-6

I thought Drum Roll Please ran a sneaky good race considering he was wide throughout.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-6

I think the Winner forwardly placed raced in the inside Bias after watching a few more replays

and he showed Heart and came back to win ,saying that I like Sierra better from my eye test and 

researched the splits Sierra was 13 ,12 lengths behind and came real wide and got the lead at a mile by the chart

on the wrong lead, lugged in and I noticed when he passed Drum Roll Please who tried hard on the outside

Missing the inside bias and stuck out their longer than Sierra, we will have to see how the entrants from the race do

in their next races to get a Idea how good this race matches up with other Point races,

Coolmore paid Big Bucks for this horse and gave him to Brown instead of Obrien might mean something.

anyway real early I have 2 horses penciled in for the Derby Sierra Leone and Nash.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Dec-7

And Fierceness opened at 12, moved up to 13 now...

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-7

thanks ! Heres More.

 Circa                                                                                 Caesars

Fierceness 12-1 15-1 Todd Pletcher
Nysos 20-1 20-1 Bob Baffert  
Locked 25-1 30-1 Todd Pletcher
Knightsbridge 30-1 35-1 Bill Mott
Muth 30-1 40-1 Bob Baffert   
Nash 35-1 40-1 Brad Cox
Dornoch 35-1 50-1 Danny Gargan
The Wine Steward 50-1 40-1 Mike Maker
Coach Prime 65-1 50-1 Bob Baffert   
Timberlake 45-1 70-1 Brad Cox
Agate Road 75-1 Todd Pletcher
Air of Defiance 50-1 75-1 Brad Cox
Honor Marie 40-1 75-1 Whit Beckman
Risk It 75-1 65-1 Steve Asmussen
Sierra Leone 50-1 75-1 Chad Brown
  • Edited December 8, 2023 3:48 pm  by  smartyslew
bisket513

From: bisket513

Dec-7

Saturday was a good day to get reliable speed figures. Just about every race the speed won with a closer passing the rest of the field for place late. The Cigar finished 4 seconds faster than the Remsen comparing each race with 12 second furlongs measuring stick. 2 year old fillies finished a second slower at the same distance as the Remsen. The Beyer was a 91 which I think is a reliable figure both to the eye and just by watching the race; it was slow. It’s a low figure for allowance horses. Unless both winner and place horse improve and develop I don’t see either one of them making the derby field from what I saw Saturday. I definitely wouldn’t suggest a future wager on either one. They’re both very green. 

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