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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started Jul-2 by smartyslew; 34756 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-9

I watched the replay, lone speed wire to wire after sloppy getting out of the gate.

Ka-ching. Nice hit.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-9

He ran good after getting out of that scrum at the start, lots of bumper cars

and the Number 4 got the worst of it. Mcpeek is good with 2 yr olds.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-9

That was a wow 1.08 and change and the field was pretty good. first 6 bunched up

that's lots of speed in a two year old race.  This week I focused on the route races

and that's normal this time of year for me. Keep the MTR's coming, I will miss 

the sprints ,staying focused on routes in this thread. I think this group might

be as good as the the 3 yr old crop, love the change in the breeding trend.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-10

I actually forgot another runner, Slipstream, who will be in the Belmont Futurity today. I think he is trained by Clemente, who has brought him along slowly.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-10

I think Red Ranger and Tiz A Bomb are the likely favorites in the Bourbon. On Thin Ice may have been flattered in his debut by a very slow pace, or compromised by the Kentucky Downs configuration in his last. I don’t know what the real OTI looks like.

In the Jessamine, I think Dressed is a viable long shot from Catalano, coming out of Arlington. MTR has another filly named Koala Princess I really, really like, but she seems to be going to the Cup off a Kentucky Downs win on September 12th. She is trained by Armand Delacour, who is good with turf fillies.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-10

The announcers kind of tried to malign the race because you had all those horses finish close at the finish. This was a stakes race, not some maiden. It is possible that it was a talented, evenly matched group.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-10

I've been under the weather this weekend and didn't get much done.
--
Field of 14 +2 AE, 7 on our list 1-2-4-5-12-15 AE-16 AE, *Stakes race
turf pedigree :Tiz The Bomb A+, On Thin Ice A+, Rocket One B+, Red Danger B+, Dowagiac Chief  A,
Martini'nmoonshine   A,
Number 12 Tiz The Bomb  Has the Elite pedigree to stretch out on the turf in this group, this is 8.5 f
and others in this group are live at this distance, I like in order 12-5-15-14  long shot number 9
Its a good betting race and look for value . Remember / Reminder my picks aren't bets
The best of breed may not be the best performer.
number 5 might be value at 8-1
 10 th race Keeneland - Sunday, October 10th, 2021
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Turf. Purse $200,000. Castle & Key Bourbon S. (Grade 2). FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. (05:46 PM) (16)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey                        ped Trainer
1 Brit's Wit  1st 7.5 f  mdn 2 G 118 Flores David Romero  B McKeever Andrew 30
2 Stolen Base 2nd 8f  oc62 2 C 118 Prat Flavien   B Maker Michael J.   10
3 Dowagiac Chief  1st 6.5f  mdn 2 C 118 Graham James  A Amoss Thomas M.  20
4 Martini'nmoonshine 1st 8.5 f mdn 2 C 118 Gaffalione Tyler A Amoss Thomas M.  10
5 X Rocket One 1st 8f mdn 2 C 118 Leparoux Julien R. B+ Mott William I.        8
6 Credibility 4th 7f S 2 C* 118 Gonzalez Edwin  B+ Casse Mark E.        20
7 Fast N Steady  1st 7.5f mdn 2 G
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-10

I didn't realize it was on the Turf, just the same it was a in the realm good race

with lots of promise for the future.

In reply toRe: msg 280
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Oct-10

Wintertrian said...

For the Bourbon, I'm going to try Red Danger or Rocket One.......

I think I will add Stolen Base because he will be under-bet and represents "good value"... (same way martinin'moonshine will be over-bet)...

..and yes, I should probably add Tiz the Bomb as well. 

I have a feeling this race will turn out wonky though.  There are some interesting longshots in here, and most of these horses have very few races under their belts.  Dowager Chief looks like an interesting long-long-long shot to stick in an exotic somewhere.
 

In reply toRe: msg 289
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Oct-10

Boy at the very end it looked like my long long shot, Dowagiac Chief was gonna nail the race with Red Danger, then Tiz a Bomb and Stolen Base ran by them. 

I'm definitely putting the chief in my virtual stable, he had speed, ran in the mix the whole way.  

Anyway,  as posted, I got the exacta --- would have had the superfecta and Super High Five, but Casse horse ruined it for me.   LOL   ( am not betting anyway) 

12-2-6-10-3

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