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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 47776 views.
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Nov-2

Thanks Smarty.

I'm still insistent that a 3 or 4 horizontal pick could provide a better overall odds return for a spread of one's money bet. 

And considering that at this consistency of BC class shorter prices are more predictable outcomes. 

Exacta bets have to be bet harder (whereas a short horse on either end deludes payout.

Granted in the 3,4s one must use the short and bomb odds, yet the ticket is kinda protected to get ones bet amount back.

A free shot at the Piñata. While watching the long balls run a win into a ticket, or say using 4 in 1 leg and 4th deepest final odds wins creates a significant multiple across the ticket.

Also where a 3 or 4 ticket has a runner that will go under 1/1 could get 4/1 or more using that one cold then 4 runners then say 7 @ $1 = $28 and see a return like $228.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Nov-2

Of the three MTR fillies in the Juvy Filly Turf race, most people will give more of a chance to Consumer Spending(Chad Brown) and Bubble Rock(Brad Cox) because of their trainers. I actually like Koala Princess' chances. Delacour will have her ready. His 21% 2021 win rate, and 22% career rate, speak well of him.

pianot

From: pianot

Nov-2

Thats who I like.

inforadime

From: inforadime

Nov-2

Consumer on a good path  maybe following Sharing - maiden win Saratoga -Laurel Selima win-3rd jockey change at breeders /patterns are intriguing -this great betting race 8/1 no way on Consumer -can make case ( not necessarily strong) on 9 of field -super betting race

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-2

Your Welcome Dogs, As long as they are doing as many gimmick bets

why not a pick 6 for these 6 races instead of 3 doubles or why not both!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-2

Tough pickin, Exacta and tri bets ,with hard pickin keys .

Who you Picken for the Classic ? I think it will be a 3 year old.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-2

You got this race right. love the turfers in this crop !good luck

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Nov-3

I am leaning towards a Max Player upset. In his last two races he has totally changed his running style, with spectacular success. I don't expect him to get near the lead with the pace scenario I expect, but I think he can be closer than usual, and get the jump in a race that falls apart. I know he can get the distance.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Nov-3

ALL..A teaser in sports betting is when player gets more or less points to cover if he in combination also bets the under/over. Two things have to happen.  Same wager amount total $ bet and return for eliminating some risk. 

Likewise there are many cards where the 6 is not hit and yet the 5 or 4 pays ransom doll-ors.

Also some tracks the 6s are a dollar bet and 4 + 5s are fiddie cents.

Going the 50 cents allows use of more runners. And if card comes up right not using a leg that is a 2 or 1 horse race.

There are some races where the tri or bet say comes up so short; I say if you don't have it, you can't stay and play some more.

In a pick 4 with likely horses and a using a bomb or 2/ or more in each leg one gets more spread for Piñata ticket.

This 2 day BC quality of proven horses; a spread on just 2 races Double could come back a negative payout. So doubles have to hard(er).  Yet to wheel..would be 1 horse in 1 leg with the other leg the calculated leg. *one can see the DD Will Pays of course.

And the advantage of catching say 2 long horses in 2 legs in a pick, as RIP Steve M would say.."You have to get paid for your handicapping."

And again the great multiplier.. there are say 4 times the runners in the 4 than 2. Betting the bomb in a leg or 2 of 4 eliminates many with the short spread in legs.

Dogs construct whereas if the ticket runs soft might make a few bucks, yet if my ticket produces 'handicapped long ball runners my usual smile goes G1.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-4

Thanks with all of that.

Dogs good luck this weekend and I hope your DD pays off.

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