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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 128250 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-18

Who's going to have the lead at the mile call (Stretch) in the Derby,
Epicenter EP7 has in his last 5 races all routes, White Abarrio EP6, 4 of 5 races, 3 routes,
Tiz The Bomb P2, 4 times all routes, 3 surfaces, Cyberknife EP4,4 times, 3 routes,
Smile Happy P4, 3 of 4 races all routes, Early Voting E8, 3 of 3 times all routes,
Messier EP8 4 of 6 races 3 routes, Charge It EP6 2 of 3 races in the stretch 8f races.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-19

Looks like 5 have hit or bettered the Bris par Speed number of 104 for the Derby'

Prime Power: Early Voting 150.6 Simplification 148.2 Messier 148.2
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Some pretty good late numbers for this Derby. 93 par
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E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 104/ 93   104> Speed

Early Voting                    95  104/111  111 Prime Rib wood + 20  86 91 111
Mo Donegal                    85   95/ 121  111 wood +19                  91 93 92 111
Taiba                              96 106/ 109  111  SAD +11                 100  111
Messier                        111  109/ 102  108   "      +4                  74 91 93 100 104 108 >
Skippylongstocking        88    97/  111  107  wood +13                77 85 94 107
Zandon                         79    88/  114  103 la derby  +9  9 3/16   88 93 94 103
Epicenter                       87   90/   106  101  "         +3     "          90 93 98 101
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RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-19

I’m not happy with Epicenter’s Equibase figures. Not that I swear by them, or anything, but I usually look at all the different figures, looking for consensus.

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Apr-19

Track record last race..... Track record...

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-20

I was impressed by that until I found out that the distance has been contested only four times in the history of the track. I was more impressed by his ability to rate than the time. I am also convinced that he can get the distance. Nine and a half furlongs is a bit different than 9f. That last 1/8 can be a beast. He did half of that last part, and still looked strong. He will certainly be on top in some of my wagers.

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Apr-20

ETHEREA (PR)

PR?  is that Puerto Rico?  That tail is the biggest issue I have with this ones pedigree.  along with Phone trick, left banker and MrP in the sweet spot.

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Apr-21

Yes, Puerto Rico.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-21

Yes and Uraguay, Argentina thru that one line . He's the winner of the 2021 Kentucky  Derby and some of 

the Argentina line are part of their elite line and Mandaloun tail female line 5J Conduit Sire is White Eagle

The Stamina Influence Sire line family that tilts to Stamina the opposite of his Dp Di and Cd numbers.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-21

You are talking about Mandaloun  ?

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Apr-21

No Taiba,  Medina Spirit was 2-n and I think Mandaloun was 5-j.  I see a lot talking that one up but I cannot get on that wagon, but glad many others like him.  EQ and Mandaloun were my top 2 last year, had no problem with 5-j.

Top 5 turn times

f TT

Mo Donegal Wood 9 23.70633

Emmanuel 8 23.90331

Skippylongstocking Wood 9 24.06615

Early Voting Wood 9 24.20418

Smile Happy KYJGC 8.5 24.20581

Emmanuel and SH races both were too slow which aided the TT

Well, that looked a lot better when I entered it.

Edit, just found out Taiba dam is OH bred, one more nail in that coffin.

  • Edited April 25, 2022 11:36 pm  by  PISTOL9
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