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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 127868 views.
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-22

Curious about Mandaloun being in your top 2 last year......first time in a long time that a horse who came in 6th in final prep won Derby.  I know you liked pedigree, but such a poor showing in last prep is usually a toss for me.  But Mandaloun did work tremendously prior.

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Apr-22

Relative to the others, I tossed his LaD out as that looked like an outlier, he ran too well in previous races.  Looked good on the track and pedigree was decent for ITM finishers..  Often it is relative to the competitions.  EQ was my top play, then Mandaloun was used next most and was the only other one played in the top spot, but not nearly as much as EQ.  Medina Spirit was only use lightly in 3rd 4th spot.  I still consider Medina Spirit as the winner as well as Maximum Security when looking at the traits of past winners. I think EQ ran the farthest of all the horses last year as often happens with my picks..  I expect the horse I have liked this year to get on of the longer rides depending on the post which is why I may be leaning more toward the E speed horse.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-22

Derby Pts Leaderboard  4/18/22 with splits, DRF dropped Morello from their top 20
They don't think he is going, I have him listed on here. Added the TF family and conduit Classification
Subject: BRIS
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 103/ 93 (103
-
Epicenter 21a IP 164  Louis Derby  9 3/16   Rosario  L free
23.67 47.65 11.99  36.16 54.38   102 by   87 90/106 (101
23.67 23.98 24.34 24.17 (3/16 18.22) Last Q 24.31
Zandon 4d  S       114  BG 9f      Prat       Lfree
24.87 49.30  13.75  38.06 50.35   98 by
24.87 24.43  24.45  24.31 12.29 lastQ  24.45  
-
White Abarrio 9e S  112 flor D. 9f, fast in middle  Gaffiolone   L free
24.18 47.66 10.99* 36.55 50.64   96 by    96 110/77 (96
24.18 23.48 23.33 25.56 14.09 Last Q 26.84
---
Mo Donegal 3g  S   112  Wood  9f  I Ortiz     L free
25.07 48.76 12.50 36.03 47.96    96 by
25.07 23.69 23.74 23.53 11.93  Last Q 23.67
--
Tiz The Bomb 3L BP 110  Jeff Ruby AW 9f  Hernandez  L free
23.96 47.78 11.58 35.89 48.60   94 by   86 93/105 (101
23.96 23.82 23.80 24.31 12.71 Last Q 24.87
--
Cyberknife 8h SP     100   Ark. Derby 9f   Geroux      L 2 races
22.91 46.94 11.23 37.24 50.42    92 by  94 97/86 ( 94
22.91 2403  24.29 26.01 13.18 last Q 26.19
--
Crown Pride (JPN) 5g BS  100  UAE Derby   Damien Lane  L free
--
Taiba 8j  C 100  S. Anita 9f  M Smith     L 1st race
22.95 47.30 11.37 36.06 48.46    102 by
22.95 24.35 24.07 24.69 12.40 last Q 24.75
-
Simplification 16g Is  74   Flor Derby  9f J Ortiz    L free
23.77 47.25 10.69 36.56 51.09   92 by  100 113/70 (93
23.77 23.48 23.44 25.87 14.53 Last Q 27.47
-
Smile Happy 6d S   70  BG  9f   Lanerie            L free
24.34 48.69 13.02 37.86 50.85  94 by
24.34 24.35 24.33 24.84 12.99  Last Q 25.41 
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-22

Name      Sire/BMS  Sire line/Bmsline Sire ,Sire BMS, BMS line 2nd Dam Sire 4 PPPP positive,N= Non Phalaris
Followed By Horse Birthday, Dam Age ,Dam's crops, C=Conduit past Derby winner, N= Nick has won derby
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Barber Road Tapit/ Halo 4i      Api/T2      PPPP  3/8/19        11 dam   6 crops
Charge IT   Tapit/ Caro 22c-rf       Api/ Caro   PPPP  4/3/19    7 dam  2crops
C-Crown Pride (JPN) Sunday Silence/Kingmambo  5g   T2/Mr P   PPPP  5/4/19  7 dam 1 crop
C-N-Cyberknife Gun Runner/Distorted Humor 8h   Fappiano/Mr P   PPPP  3/14/19   10 dam 4 crop
Early Voting P/N Gun Runner/ Tiznow  9b   Fappiano/In Reality  PPNP  3/7/19   7 Dam 3 crops
N-Epicenter  Storm Cat/ Candy Ride 21A   Storm Cat/ Fappiano       PPPP   1/29/19  12 Dam 6 crops
Happy Jack  Oxbow/ Tapit 3o                        Nor Dan/ API          PNPP  3/17/19  dam 10  3 crop
N In Due Time Not This Time/Curlin  9f  S. Cat/ Mr P   PPPP  2/19/19  dam  4, 1st crop
N-Messier  Empire Maker/ Smart Strike 12b    Fapp./ Mr P       PPPP  3/24/19   dam 9   3 crop
Mo Donegal  Uncle Mo/ Pulpit 3g         Caro/ API           PPPP  4/19/19  dam 7  2 crop
N-Morello    Classic Empire/ Congrats 6b       Fapp./ Api       PPPP  2/20/19   dam 11 5 crop
C-N-Pioneer of Medina  PoN /Eskendereya 5i      Fapp/ Storm Cat   PNPP  2/24/19 dam 5  1st crop
N-Simplification   Not This Time/ Candy Ride  16g-rf     Storm Cat/ Fapp   PPPP 2/28/19 dam 7 1st crop
Smile Happy P/N Runhappy/ Pleasant Tap 6d-rf   Ran/ Ribot       PPNN  2/20/19 dam 13 4 crops
C-N-Summer Is Tomorrow  Summer Front /Badge Of Silver 20b       Danzig/ Nor Dan    PPPN  4/24/19 dam 9  3 crops  
N-Taiba  Gun Runner/ Flatter  8j   Fappiano/ Api       PPPP      4/13/19 dam 8  2 crops
Tawny Port P/N   PON / Macho Uno 21a    Fappiano/ / Holy Bull   PNNP  3/21/19 dam  10  4 crops
Tiz The Bomb P/N  Hit It A Bomb/ Tiznow-rf  3L    Danzig/ Inreality   PPNP  2/2/19  dam 8 4 crops
Un Ojo   Laoban/ API      12d,             Caro/ Api      PPPP   3/12/19 Dam  11  4 crops
White Abarrio  Race Day/ Into Mischief  9e    Api/ Storm Cat    PPPP  3/18/19 dam 4  2 crops
C-Zandon   Upstart/ Creative Cause 4d      Api/ Storm Cat    PPPP   3/21/19  dam 5  2 crops
N-Zozos Munnings / Forestry 19       Mr P/ Storm Cat  PNPP   3/18/19    dam 9,  2 crops
 
----
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-22

8 generation Female linebreeding Foundation
----------------------------
Barber Road
BARBER ROAD C, 2019 DP = 3-4-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.83
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
ALMAHMOUD 8s x 7s x 8s x 6d x 7d 5 (0) (2) 3.91% 6x6
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-22

Happy Jack  
HAPPY JACK C, 2019 DP = 2-8-11-0-1 (22) DI = 2.38   CD = 0.45                        Number 8
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
FOGGY NOTE 5S x 6d 2 (1) (1) 4.69% 5x6 4.88%
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-22

Smile Happy P/N 
SMILE HAPPY C, 2019 DP = 2-6-5-2-1 (16) DI = 1.91   CD = 0.38                               Number 6
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
FLOWER BOWL 5D x 5D 2 (2) (0) 6.25% 5x5 6.54%
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-22

White Abarrio  
WHITE ABARRIO C, 2019 DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.75
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
ALMAHMOUD 8s x 7s x 8s x 8d x 8d 5 (0) (2) 2.34% 6x7 1.17%*
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RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-24

Hey, James Aloysius got back to the races yesterday, and flashed more of that potential we saw in his two year old debut. He was caught five wide around the first turn of a 7.5f MSW at Gulfstream, but was a bit keen, as he raced to the lead. He held of a late threat to win by 2 lengths in 1:27 3/5. We might get to see him in a race like the Pennine Ridge later on. Looks like a runner!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-24

Thanks for that, I'll check the race out, Jack Christopher is penciled in for a race Derby Day and Corniche is

galloping somebody said and Credit Event I haven't heard much about, bred for 12f.

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