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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 152017 views.
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-25

Ah I know.  The Canadian.  

 

I like another Canadian this year.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

Yes The Sire Of Sires, Held the Derby record Before Big Red, won the Derby NTR 2.00.00  foal date 5/27/1961

From His Dam's Natalma 1st crop when She was 4 years old when Northern Dancer was born

one of 15 first crop Dams that Threw A Derby Winner from 61 races. 27 mares have 1st or 2nd crop Derby winners from 61 races.

41 of 61 Derby winners Dams were within the first 4 crops of the Mare.

What Month  has the Least Derby Winners Foal Date Jan, Feb, March, April, or May since the 1960 Race?

Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-25

I would guess January 

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-25

It would have to be between January and May.  You wouldn't want to mess up and have the foal come before Jan. 1st.  They'd have to race in South America lol.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

That is correct 2 only January Foal winners since 1960, I think I started  this list around 2010 going back 50 years.

Grindstone 1/21/1993 foal date won in 1996, Proud Clarion 1/1/1964 first in 1967 , the 2 oldest 3's to win the Derby

in the last 61 years. its paid off 59 times to toss the January foals for the win in the last 61 runnings.

You Going To toss Epicenter for the win this year. 1/29/19. the only January foal in the top 20.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-25

Why would you think the January foals are at a disadvantage?  Is the sample size large enough to conclude that there is a challenge with early foals?  I have the same question about #17 pp., or Amussen not winning, etc.

Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-25

Can’t toss Epicenter.Aren’t we due a January winner?

Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-25

I am guessing they may have peaked before the derby

Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-25

Totally unrelated;Classic Causeway is back in the derby.Leparoux will ride per DRF

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

Its only part of the data for the angle that hasn't been presented on here..............yet............maybe.

Its like a Halley's comet window of time. A old boy told me once ,he didn't think the December and January foals

got enough Sunshine. I didn't look before 1960 derby looking at Foal dates, Mares age for that day and the number of crops

for the Dam, Nick, Family , RF's , The  Data on each side some are runners other are producers, It's a Good angle for Future bets

also. 

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