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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 150342 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

Maybe Over due, he can still be on a ticket .its not the only angle for the win.

It might be in part where it is born at, North South east west weather conditions might be part.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

His dam is 12 and her 6th crop  . If a double digit Dam age on the Foal Date and if its more than her 4th crop in this

case the 6th crop  the sire, horse or Dam one of them needs the Rf and Epicenter has Something Royal 2s Rf

Thru Secretariat the Number one Rf you want, thats part of the rest of the story with more coming down the road

Keep you hands off the Panic Button. (Not you Gerh)

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Apr-25

Wait. What?

What you just said, can you read Messier's pedigree in the same language you just wrote? Maybe I can follow you better using this pedigree. Thanks! flushed

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-25

Definitely good angle for future bets, my main interest anyway.....also racing debut.  Very few that debut in May or June ever win Derby; I think most winners debut in Aug or Sept., with a few in Oct/Nov.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

Message 893 was meant for you Gerh ,I jumped ahead to another step on the angle I'm working on

for Epicenter and all , its not just the foal date, there is more. Check it out.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

That use to be, we are in the age of Apollo and the window time frame might be 20 years at a guess .

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

I'll put the Next step up tomorrow  for the angle 

Messier has the goods big red and Buckpasser up the middle in a Passing Position.
Has a strong Derby Nick Sire/ Bms has won derbys

The angle I was working with updating Epicenter for Gerh

for Messier his dam is 9 on foal date ok under 10 years

her 3rd Crop hits the 4 and under that produces derby winners 
Princequillo and Latroienne in a Passing Position

Blue Blood imo.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-25

Gerh said...

I think the winner won the Louisiana Derby.Wouldn’t be surprised if the Florida Derby provides the rest of the trifecta

I was on Epicenter as the horse nobody could beat, until this week.  I suddenly realized he is vulnerable (I had the same feeling with EQ last year.....that he was such the obvious winner) but I do think it will be horses from FL race or if wet then Messier. 

Now that classic causeway is back in --- CC scoped fine after the race, there was no physical excuse for him at all.  He just got pressured by a horse who wasn't going to let up on him, and the excuse was psychological, he backed up because Simplification humiliated him..........but it probably also cost Simp the win or place as well.   In the Derby there will be other horses to do that duty, Simplification can just do his running since he's already proved he can wear a pace leader down.........he can now leave that duel to someone else. 

Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-25

I think the Florida based horses will flourish in the cooler Kentucky air.I think that is why Lynch has Changed his mind about CC.Messier and Simplification got a lot out of their final preps
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-26

Makes sense.  There’s not only a lot fewer of them as compared to Feb.-April but they’re often already about as good as they’re going to be.

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