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West VA Derby   General Discussions

Started Aug-2 by princeofdoc; 1454 views.
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Aug-2

Not much here, yet good purse.....wondering why connections of Masqueparade, or even Weyburn, did not consider this race, instead of facing EQ at SAR.  Seems like a 300K winner's share would be more available at Mountaineer....

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-2

Weyburn Trainer Thought about it, why do you think they didn't consider something obvious?

Total of 5 entrants at Sar might of been the reason ! or 3 without them. I dunno

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Aug-2

I really think that the owners....even the trainers....in general, are not necessarily good strategists, specifically regarding Game Theory Optimal, something poker players have in their arsenal.

Game theory would have connections considering where specific trainers/horses will next compete, purse sizes,etc., then recognize their ROI (return on investment) based upon possible strategies.

For example, if looking at big purse races, like the 1.25$M Travers, or the 1$ million PA Derby, one should look at likely contenders and chances to upset them.  Very likely Cox will be sending Mandaloun and EQ to the Travers, and doubtfully to the PA Derby 4 weeks later, as the build up to the Breeders Cup will need to be considered.  Thus, competing in the Jim Dandy, vs. EQ, would have less EV (expected value) than targeting the far less competitive 500K W.VA Derby....and using that race as a prep for the PA Derby, instead of even thinking of the Travers.  Were I advising connections of Masqueparade, I would skip the Travers, target the PA Derby, and then consider options for BC day.

Perhaps Cox will surprise, and not have Mandaloun face off against EQ at Travers, but instead give him a bit more time and work up to the PA Derby.....again, choosing between a few races for the BC.

Don't know if this ramble makes sense.....but my poker experience does drive thoughts on strategy :)

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-2

I loved to play at the Muckelshoot Casino in Auburn Washington back in the day

against the young Microsoft employees on Texas Holdem tables, they loved playing

small pairs to try to hit the bad beat Jackpot with 4 of a kind that grows to a monster number, me and a couple of buddies that ran their own games in Clarkston and Walla Walla would understand pot odds and we would fill up our racks as fast as they emptied theirs. 10 to a table, 3 of us ,2 or 3 from Microsoft, playing against 4 others that shortened the table up. My nickname was the Lewiston Rock wherever I played in the Northwest,, Ring Games or Tournaments, my one buddy was The Tahoe Kid , Ever run into him. Walla Walla players love to play Tahoe.
Last time I was at The Bellagio My wife sacked up the I think it was the 10-20 game
young people don't respect women players. A couple of years dealing Hold-em payed for Her
Masters degree. 

What did 5th place pay last Saturday at the Spa ?

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Aug-2

Interesting remarks, Prince.  

The overriding concern of trainers is the physical & mental status of the horse.  Coming out of a race, recovery, conditioning, going up to a race.  If a race comes up too soon or too late based on the form cycle of the horse, the money aspect is moot.  Audibles are the order of the day.  Lose some training due to a minor injury, a cough.  Horse is simply not training well.  The variables are immense.

There is also the prestige factor to consider.  Is a 2nd in the Travers for a horse who has already earned black type, for example, worth more in the shed than a PA Derby win?

If an owner says, I wanna go to the Travers with my horse, what does the trainer say.  Bill Mott may say, "no".  Pletcher will likely say "Yes."

Plus, as a horseplayer, I could not care less.  I'm always happy to see a horse spotted incorrectly & even happier when they take money.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Aug-2

Saratoga general purse condition

55% win

20% place

12% show

6% fourth 

4% fifth

3% among rest of field

  • Edited August 2, 2021 6:06 pm  by  DogsUp
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-2

Just from Numerical value , like my other posts for this,

Weyburn Home track is in New York , he stayed home for what ever reason.

maybe to help his home track to fill the race. 5th place at WV paid $10,000

5th place at Sar. $ 24,000 , He finished 4th  $36,000, Didn't have to leave town.

WV 4th paid $25,000, He stayed Home and had the 3rd best Hand, I'm sure

his Home base were happy he helped the field problem, not many wanted  to face EQ.

After the race he took his horse home, saved transportation  fees and no guarantee to finish in the money at West Virginia. i didn't like the ride he got,  I thought he was a top 3  for the race

He's got a good horseman for his trainer who I think did what he thought was best for the horse !

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Aug-2

Had Weyburn, EQ and Dr. Jack for the tri. The Dr. didn't show up either. Thought he would have run a better race than he did.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-2

Yea I liked Weyburn for 2nd, I didn't like him up close that early.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Aug-3

Those are all important points, thanks....

Staying home is certainly a significant factor; however, Mountaineer or Parx not too distant a van, actually.  To continue the poker analogy, I would often travel from CA/LV out to Foxwoods in the early days of well-attended tournaments, because the fields were far softer.  More prestige for a win in the WSOP?  Certainly....but bankroll building is also important to consider.

The W. VA Derby and the PA Derby have considerable payoffs for 1st and 2nd.  Some trainers are more alert to these factors than others, I believe.  It seems that Cox is fairly savvy....will wait to see what he does with Mandaloun.

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