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$20 exacta. Midnight Bourbon over EQ and Dynamic One equals $40 North
I'm sorry HRC isn't in the race. I don't see Essential Quality getting beat. I think Midnight Bourbon has the best chance for the upset, if his head is clear from his Haskell near fall.
$.50 super/box......EQ / Keep / DO / MD.
Dynamic One pulls the upset......JMO!
Essential Quality should take command of this nearly repeat field at 9 panels; which some ran together in the Whitney here in Saratoga.
Keep in Mind ...Keepmeinmind ran 2nd in Whitney, late developing, strong AM works.
Rosario back and sez he has a better understanding of what the colt can do.
my interest in some of these horses is several months stale at this point.
Plus, it's the SAR track....where I am always wrong. So take my thoughts with a grain of salt, because can't win at SAR and as a result never play the track except in contests. I'm not wagering these days anyway.
Would have to use an exotic w/EQ here as odds not good enough to play alone, but he has proved himself to be ultra-capable........he just needs to stay in condition for the BCC. He will be lucky that Mishriff will probably go in the Arc or the Turf and not the BCC. That horse looks so dangerous.
Somebody just sent me the DRF sheet for the race.....took a look to see what they have been up to:
Dynamic One runs seldomly, took a whole month to start working after Derby, and 2.5 months to get a race (that had no world-beaters) after that and won. He was a good derby longshot at 45-1..... at 6-1, not so much (for me).
King Fury seems to avoid any race that is not a G2 or G3. Every time he runs in a G1 he doesn't even hit the board. I guess McPeek could get lucky. I was crazy about this horse at one time.
Stall seems to be taking his time with Masqueparade.....very regularly spaced races and works. Steady crescendo. Maiden, allowance, G3, G2. To my mind, that's how you bring along a horse (if you don't want to end up with a doorstop at the end of their 4 year old career.)
Miles D looks like an allowance horse to me.......albeit a very expensive one! With Chad Brown.
Keepmeinmind -- Diordoro will enter the horse in every Stakes race every month if there is something to enter. LOL Like Ive said before, love his pedigree, but not sure how much longer he will "hold up". Diordoro seems bound and determined to have this horse finally WIN a G1......horse has raced at 6 tracks now, and can't get the job done. I'm almost HOPING he wins, just because of Laoban, his sire. !!! This is getting to be a real bridesmaid story. Maybe he will clunk up for a deeper exotic?
Midnight Bourbon - 80% ITM across 7 tracks and has not embarassed himself ---- 6 graded stakes ran ITM.......I mean, let's throw out the Haskell, wasn't his fault about the clipped heels and then rider falling off. That race was a disgrace in general. He might have distance limitation but he always gives his ALL.
So that's how I see the Travers. I like EQ, Midnight Bourbon and Masqueparade
Edit on race day: Add Miles D for value
DogsUp said...late developing
Huh? Is that some kind of new phrase to use for horses who can't win a G1 after running a graded stakes race EVERY SINGLE MONTH since winning the jockey club stakes G2 back in 2020? (6 races to be exact).
He was running 2nd, 2nd, 3rd and 1st back in 2020.....at the beginning of his career when he first set hoofs on the track. How exactly this points to "late development" doesn't really make logical sense. If anything he was an early developer.
Please explain how his pattern points to a late developing race horse.
RE: KMIM - Trav - next race
That was my comment 'yesterday, alluding to the trainer's comments to media regarding his colt saying... always thought colt would be a good one late 3 yo and into 4. So we'll see Saturday. Day after tomorrow.
Prior to yesterday..When someone here wanted KMIM to blend in their tik construction 2021..I'd write...the colt will run to his PPs...not in the money.
Wide running, long way home, Essential Quality only has KMIM to be of concern in this small field.
DogsUp said...That was my comment 'yesterday, alluding to the trainer's comments to media regarding his colt saying... always thought colt would be a good one late 3 yo and into 4.
Okay, well you didn't quote him so I thought it was "you" saying that KMIM was a late developing colt.
Heck, I almost hope he wins. For Laoban and for KMIM himself. What my "gut" tells me is going on here, Diordoro is a claiming trainer. That's what he's good at.
And he will run this horse in a graded stakes race, every month, until the horse wins a G1. 6 stakes races in a row now, and Travers will be his 7th. This horse will need a rest.
This is why if you are looking to claim a horse, you don't claim off Diodoro. There's nothing left when he's finished with them. This is the usual claiming guys MO.
And I find it depressing. So sure, I hope the horse does well otherwise, he'll be in another graded stakes next month, too.
There aren't any other horses in the Travers that have a history like that. Even EQ can't run to that frequency and he is very well-managed.
Diodoro is good at the claiming "game" & is also an accomplished cheat & scofflaw. According to t-bred rulings . com he has 52 violations over a 15 year period.
He should have been booted out of the "game" some time ago as would be the case in most international jurisdictions with set standards. The US is embarrassingly lax.
Instead, Robertino has a horse in The Travers.
Just another symptom of the disease afflicting US racing.