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Kentucky Derby 2022 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 12/2/21 by DogsUp; 44575 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

1/15/22

I  went right over WR Sanchez at that time, I thought you were using some persons name

and it didn't make sense to me.

Later on when I saw the Horses name and the connections and a Cal Bred

I thought you would tout him as the next Cal Chrome.  After his Win today

with that final Quarter at this juncture I like him better than Nyquist.

WR  Sanchez never connected me to Worst Read Sanchez

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

1/15/22

Actually Doug was the trainer back then 14 yrs ago for REDDAN owner of the first of the named bad to worse horses.

In the last 44 years only 4 owners have won 2 Kentucky Derbys. 

I thought it was long ball math odds for *giving them a name.. The California Crew to take a 2nd Derby win and consecutively entered into event; and 1st 2 Derbys.

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

1/18/22

Smile Happy is a secret no more as future pool put him on the radar.

Run Happy is his papie. 

Genetic background includes a Dogs fav Maria's Mon.

In reply toRe: msg 31
DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

1/19/22

Pappacap DogsUp Delta Derby colt and leading KDY points winner to date; runs Sat. FAIRGROUNDS. (Gun Runner sire = 76 - 99 /PIA - 10 - BQE/HYkE². GR won 218 Pegasus @ Gulfstream Pk 

A 10 point 1st place Derby points win with his 12 [first place in Point Standing] already in the bank would be a 22 total and that number was good enough last year for the 18th slot in the KDY. 

(d)

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

1/22/22

Grinder type, held on for 3rd in a close one at FG.....not really too impressed though, as a cheaper long shot was able to power through them.  Perhaps he'll mature through the winter and improve, but can't see him winning the Derby.  Hard to believe WH and Circa have him at 25 and 30 respectively

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

1/22/22

Read my 'dirty story' about dirt and endurance and surface on slow soil below in this 3 yr old race. 

The Delta Horse is not the horse picked to win but the comparative one.

MAYBE as he is now off the radar could get in and run underneath in the KDY.

Yes there are some 2 to 4 better I'd bet now; yet today the colt is still the Point Leader for KDY 

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

1/22/22

You certainly know points leader is literally meaningless at this point....that's why Baffert owners aren't concerned about sacrificing the 10pt races.

I've never understood your "delta" signification.  Sure, he could improve and sneak in, maybe even hit the board.  Depends upon how healthy the better colts stay, how the inexperienced ones do in the preps, etc.  He's still in my top 20 at the moment, I just don't think he's a futures bet.  That's what I like to concentrate on.  He's 25-1 and Smile is 20-1?!?  In terms of value, no comparison.

But I'm much more interested in the colts yet to run in graded stakes, ones that I can get good bets on.

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

1/22/22

Delta horse has no skin in the future games. Dogs 'no play futures. Tough enough to get 20 runners to finish matching The Ticket construction 

Delta is a comparative horse picked to compare all 3 yr Olds.  And as they go on in pt races. 

Arguably as the point leader going into February as #1 (tied but sports more cash) and picked months ago...he's spot on Delta to date. 

In years past the Derby favs have won and even taken Triple Crowns. And had many-many points.

Those are horses that the one shot a year bettors have on top. Was even that easy for you and the Dog. Didn't even need my glasses for the small print on the DRF. 

But, there are 19 other Derby gaters and a runner is needed to key under 2nd *toss 5 or 6 / all for 3rd. Then key that horse in 3rd putting the all in 2nd slot. For a thrifty ticket.

In 2017 the early Delta colt was Lookin at Lee. He squeezed, maybe squeaked into the KDy. Was really on the fence to get in. RAN 2nd. My ticket was 5 runners to win on top and included Lee 2nd and 3rd. Wish I had also wheeled one hard for key 2nd + 3rd.

Knicks Go was my Delta horse in his Breeders Cup. Ran 2nd to Baff favorite. I remember us conversing on race day. That card I just posted hamburger helpers who could board.

Also the Delta colt can be replaced along the way. And has been. Horse pickin' is Fungible. It is like the guy who says I handicapped for 2 weeks, got to the window, changed what I wanted to bet. And lost and my original selections were winners. He/she went off the Delta gathering info. Specific/numeric and anecdotally.

Yes, the Delta if in the Derby can even be a toss. Just as the favorite scratched week or day of roses and bourbon.

The Delta colt is Fungible. Even within the race. 

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

2/2/22

After 15 KDY point races to date Pappycappie the Delta horse/ comparison horse is still the point leader and his Beyer kinda falls below nearly 10 runners, and consider there are 20 Derby stalls to come not too shabby.

Hoofnote: A Baffert runner in a Derby points race, yet ineligible to race in the Derby does not affect the final 20 count of points to become a Derby qualifier.

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

2/2/22

NEVER a winner from post-position 17. The last time gate 17 produced a horse that even finished in the top 5 was 2005.

Other factors - no longer

Bodemeister first crop Always Dreaming.

Colt with 7 Dossge won / 4 +/-

Never raced at 2 y o has won.

New starting gate now.

And the Baffert factor out of contention

Perhaps the draw will land Post 17 in top 4 needed..

For a general Over/Under not knowing the post draw:Go with Yes hit the board, in top 5.

Math only 5% chance #17.

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