Derby times last 8 years after 4 furlongs, with the eventual winner, their place and lengths back:

47.67 California Chrome 3rd, 1 1/2 back

47.74 American Pharoah 3rd, 2 back

46.52 Nyquist 2nd, 4 back

46.73 Always Dreaming 2nd, 1 back

45.87 Justify 2nd, 1/2 back

46.62 Maximum Security 1st -

46.41 Authentic 1st -

46.70 Medina Spirit 1st -

Averages:  46.78 with the winner 1 1/8 lengths behind.  Of course this is a recent trend.  Before CC you have to go back to Big Brown to find a winner that was really up close or in front at the half.  Which ones this year figure to run a :47 half mile?  Not too many.

6 to 10  47,  4   46 is possible

I’ve got maybe 10 under :48, but only 5 or so close to :47 and only one under :47.  This isn’t the fastest bunch.

Exactly my point on not a super hot pace.

I've got a possible 7 who can/may go sub 47....including Epicenter, who I think has to go to the lead with Summer to his outside

Did you look at message 958 2021 2 yr olds ? also shows the Bris and timeform early numbers  and 

the variants are out with speed numbers.

It’s going to be interesting to see who gets squeezed back considering the way Classic Causeway rockets out of the gate and Summer isn’t going to let anyone be in front but him.  I’m sure there may be seven that can go under :47 but that’s obviously not the comfort zone for but a handful of them.

I did, and thanks very much, and they pretty much match up with the numbers I came up with.  But even those figures only show three going under :47 for the half.