This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
Latest Dec-9 by smartyslew
Latest Sep-4 by Gerh
Latest Nov-30 by SameSteve G
Latest Nov-30 by SameSteve G
Latest Nov-24 by Wintertrian
Latest Nov-21 by SameSteve G
Latest Nov-20 by pianot
Latest Nov-15 by pianot
Latest Nov-14 by DogsUpWired
Latest Nov-12 by ChiefsCrown
I had a hair-brained thought that doesn't qualify as "handicapping" but isn't it interesting how the Wither's Stakes turned out to be somewhat of a key race in 2021. Un Ojo wins the Rebel Stakes at huge odds. Then Early Voting wins the Preakness (also at great odds) for an EV/Epicenter exacta; then Grantham runs 2nd to Classic Causeway in Tampa Bay stakes at huge odds as well.
Who ran 3rd in the Withers? Gilded Age. So, gonna put him in my superfecta/trifecta on a superstitious hunch. Mott has pulled off these kind of longshots 2x already in the Travers.
Probably won't wager, but my on paper ticket so far: Epicenter, Gilded Age.
Need 2 more. Perhaps Rich Strike, or at least, I'm rooting for him, being only horse to actually win at 10F (though his jockey flying in for the race the morning of has me quite worred, but horse is lookin' good to my eye.) Will root for him at any rate, since he takes so much flak and is rear end of many jokes (same as "they" did to Mine That Bird, since so many cappers esp. talking heads seem to hate horses they didn't have and lost money on, ever notice this???) and I'd like those people to just ........ shut up.
Then there is Zandon or Cyberknife, both of whom avoided Epicenter by running in AR Derby and Bluegrass.....and neither has ever beaten Epicenter Hmmmm. But Zandon has never run worse than 3rd in any race.
Can't back Artorious w/zero graded stakes and no real experience.
Okay, that's all I got so far.....and no PPs or anything yet.
So far i have a super of Rich Strike/Zandon/Cyberknife and Artorius. Looking at pp's i see a speed dual up front between EV, Epi and ALG.
Going with RS, Zandon, Cyber and Artorius in a super. Hopefully RS or Artorius pull this off.
Thanks Tex, I see Jack Christopher is racing in the Jerkens Memorial,
Brown has 17 Stakes entrys in the next 3 days, Going for the gusto before his court date !
Ain't life grand might not have to dual.
You may be talking about Cyber knife slunk in the Derby race and chart.
His lights out time in Haskell closing against a 6 Fl 109* and to the 9 Fl in 136*.
Fav 7/5 in Trav needs 112 or more at six.
Cox will go with strategy to aim for the 9 panels at say 148+. Nobody around close enough to catch the last 1/8 strides
Nice observation on the Withers Winter. You always find interesting angles. My only thought is if you play Gilded Age you need to include Artorious. I see Early Voting fading again in this one. As you say Zandon has never beat Epicenter and I don’t see it here either. Cyberknife is progressing better than most here and I feel he is a must include. As you know I also like to include a long shot in my pick so with your help it will be Gilded Age-Artorious-Epicenter-Cyberknife box for the exotics. Thanks for your assessment!! North
Thunderstorms likely. Rainfall will be locally heavy at times. Potential for severe thunderstorms. High 79F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 100%.
Significant trainers have noted the track crunchy playing than yesteryears.
Derby winner exhibited an AM hoofing for the terrain.
And still cause to believe that the finish 1 2 3 is in numerical order at mile and eighth ..the bench mark of where to be.
Northof64 said...Cyberknife is progressing better than most here and I feel he is a must include
I thought about that, but Cox has been very *particular* placing this horse in just the right races, at Monmouth, CD and OP. In this case, because he won two G1s and a G3, it's more like a foregone conclusion to run in the Travers. I don't think Cox was saving his horse to particularly "target" this race.....just seems like more of a "default" entry. And finally, he's no Essential Quality.
I also dislike post #1 for him anyway, I think EV, Zandon, and Richie (who loves to run on the rail) are going to scoot over and unless Cyber can get out in front of them he's going to end up shuffled back and have to eventually go wide around the field midpack at some point to get back toward front. So I think they are going to *send* on him, while everyone will be thinking it's gonna be EV and will be faked out.
Artorius, if it wasn't a Chad Brown horse, with Irad aboard (keeping in mind this is a race at Saratoga! rah rah) would normally have M/L odds of at least 15-1 if not higher, being basically, just a maiden who has never won or even been in, a graded stakes race. (In which case, why not just use Ain't Life Grand?) IMHO, Artorious is going to find out what it's like to run against Monsters.
I agree about EV though, an extra furlong isn't going to be his friend.
Rich Strike did get a perfect setup in the KY Derby, but it's not like he didn't do any actual running. He can run. And extra distance will not hurt him. Just that he seems more like a Vino Rosso or Mo Don type which on the SAR bias, I'm not real excited about for him.
And keeping in mind Epicenter is very push-button under Rosario.
Obviously I haven't looked at PPs, past editions of the Travers, or the weather yet. Will do that late tonight or Sat morning.