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Kentucky Downs 9/9-9/10   Handicapping

Started Sep-4 by Northof64; 623 views.
Northof64

From: Northof64

Sep-4

As stated elsewhere I will be in Vegas this weekend and plan on playing this track. Chief calls it the closest to Euro racing we got. Big fields makes for fun betting! Started this thread so any of my forum friends can put in their 2 cents worth. The way things are going I should skip the capping and just play Mike Makers horses!!! Or follow Smarty’s 2 year olds!!! Which I do . Seriously I do appreciate all your thoughts, insights and angles that makes me look at things differently at times. North

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-10

Hi North, like everyone else love the KY Downs meet. Beautiful course with the uphill and most do not get to see this kind of racing in the U.S. 

For 9/10:

Race 4 I have a stable notification on a horse I've been following for whole career so far, because I've been following Bal a Bali's progeny (yeah, I follow some off the radar sires).  Maiden fillies, 3yo and up, 1 mile,turf.   

She's 15-1, Bali Kuta.   I'm going to use, just not sure how yet, because of the 2 Mott's.  Her sire Bal a Bali needs no introduction, multiple G1s and other graded stakes wins (Shoemaker Mile and Frank E. Kilmore Stkes in 2017, and the American Stakes in 2015 for instance, 1 mile turf.)  BMS Sligo Bay (IRE) was built like a powerful tank, and has many Graded stakes wins and ITM in US, France, and Ire and hails from the Sadler's Wells sire line. 

Bali Kuta is 2nd off the shelf here.  She ran 9th in a field of 11 at Ellis in July, but that race was taken off turf.  In her very first maiden in 2021 at CDX, she ran a sprint on dirt and came in 2nd to last.   So, I am pretty sure she hates dirt.   Her turf efforts at Ellis in 2021 were 2x places, on turf.  

Her odds reflect she will be under the radar for anyone not following her.  I think odds will acutally be over 15-1 at post.  Plusses:  she get Saez aboard.  Cons:  Her trainer is a staple at Oaklawn, so not really known for being a turf trainer, but he can pull off a longshot every so often.  (Jason Barkley). 

However, she's racing against 2 Motts. Wings Like Eagles has raced 3x this year, last race got bumped from both sides in the start; race before that a "brutal trip", before that broke out and managed 3rd (Tomlinson).  Odds are 4-1, I dunno, seems like a lot of bad luck so far and seems like a hard tryer. I think the odds will go down a tad a post due to Rosario/Mott.  May be a win candidate though.  Others of interest is Arroblue, the other Mott, (Arrogate/Blue Watch by Tapt).   Generous odds of 8-1.   Then we have She's All Class, a Gun Runner  (BMS New Approach (IRE) a Galileo son!) with Maker at 6-1.   


Race 3:  
Check out the pedigree of She's Gone with Vicki Oliver.  Check it against Zenyatta and you will see what I mean.  (Curlin/She's Not Here). 
Also since McGuaghey is bringing them like gangbusters here, other choice is his Berate (Blame/Orate).  
Mott also has one in here I don't like,  Cox has a 2 times stakes placed one, Golden Sights, probably the best win bet but is the chalk.  
Longshot = Social Engagement.  

 

I have more for Sunday, not sure who yet. Maybe Park on the Nile but will have to look the race over. 

Northof64

From: Northof64

Sep-10

Thanks Winter!! Great analysis. Actually on my way to get a racing form. Will be playing today but not tomorrow because heading home. Shes all class was on my radar too but always love throwing in long shots. I appreciate your insights. North

Northof64

From: Northof64

Sep-10

A couple longer odds I'm looking at is Hendy Woods in lady turf and Who's the Star in the Turf. Ill find a way to sprinkle them in. North 

Northof64

From: Northof64

Sep-10

Nice call on she’s gone winter!!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-10

Race 5  I like Somelikeithotbrown wrong odds 

Will bet a Exacta With Number 10  Cavalry Charge  15-1 for giggles.

m

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-10

sweet call on She's Gone, I hope you bet a ton !

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-10

Actually, I combined 2 of them (ended up using the cox chalk along with for exacta --- small wager but good ROI

Looking at those bloodlines, I'm gobsmacked everyone let She's Gone get away at 10-1, as a single paid $26.26

 

OMPLETED:636b9-26496 KD #3 $1 Exacta BX, 1, 11 none $2.00
$89.75
+ $87.75
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-10

No idea what happened in R4 though. Fell asleep so will have to go back and watch replay.  Neither of the 2 Mott's hit the board (Wings Like Eagles 9/5 at post; Arroblue 7-1 at post) but neither did Maker's She's All Class (10-1) or Bali Kuta who went to 35-1 at post (at least I was right about her odds going up from 15-1, sure woulda been a nice hit).   

Not tooting own horn but unsual that NONE of the horses I thought had a chance even ran in the superfecta. (???)  Sure didn't see Course Runner at 30-1 or Classic Coyne at 42-1 who ran 2nd and 4th. 

 

Meanwhile, have been on phone with twinspires across 4 days now since there is a problem with my account, it's gone thru Tier 1, then she had to escalate to Tier 2 tech support, and Tier 2 today had to escalate it to Tier 3, so I guess there really is something wrong. :)   So all that really broke my focus today. Meanwhile if you ever have a problem, expect it to take days/week since tickets scoot around to all different levels.  I learned a workaround for something else though, so that was pretty cool and something I would not have learned myself.  All the tech support people are very nice though. 

Northof64

From: Northof64

Sep-11

I had the exacta too for $180. Very nice!! You love your zenyatta!! Good call and thank you!! I also hit the red knight gufo exacta so it was a fun day. Wish I could have placed a future derby bet on another one of your up and coming stars, confidence game. North 

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