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PennDerby   Handicapping

Started Sep-22 by Northof64; 1294 views.
Northof64

From: Northof64

Sep-22

Cyberknife-Zandon- Skippy exacta and trifecta box. Taking a stand against Taiba away from California. North

pianot

From: pianot

Sep-22

This race could be far more entertaining than one might think. I haven't settled on it yet but appreciate those that have. Good racing all. At the moment- Zandon- Twany- Cyber box. 

  • Edited September 22, 2022 4:43 pm  by  pianot
In reply toRe: msg 2
DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

Sep-23

We the People will go to front and 9 Fl is optimal distance. Should be in Tri as hamburger helper. 

Flav gets off his Derby colt to take this mount for his steady work connections.

All videos of We the People's 8 races.

https://youtu.be/9siCt4Uc6TA

pianot

From: pianot

Sep-23

Definitely one to consider. Waiting for track info to come up tomorrow. Thanks Dogs.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-23

Cox says he is sending Cyber and others might be better gate horses and he will probably

be sitting right off them if not on the lead and part of the strategy is a good pace for Tawny

his closing style fits 9f distance and might hit the exacta with one forward placed and the other coming.

I think it will be an Interesting race ,this team facing off against Taiba, Zandon, We The People, Skippy

Plenty of Competition for these 2 styles, first 5 or 6 might be a length apart or one break away from the forward group.

In reply toRe: msg 5
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-23

Thoughts:   Looking for winner who is minimum 6-1 to 9-1 at post time, as this race has all the earmarks of a longshot bias.   I will not single a WIN wager on any horse who does not meet my odds requirement at post time.  

Meets my requirement for win spot:   Zandon, Skippy, Tawny Port or Simplification.   (Will have to see if Zandon's odds drift upwards.)

 

Interesting:  few in this race have worked over the track at Parx, which can be quirky.  Worked over track:   Simplification,  Icy Storm (HFC Parx horse), Naval Aviator. 

Also interesting:  White Aborrio has been working at SAR since early August, though never raced there the entire meet. Looks like trainer wanting  to give him some time on a deeper track...trainer intent = stamina building.  Ditto, Skippylongstocking, working at SAR since early July but ran no races at the SAR meet.    

This is going to be a dry track.  The W VA Derby was sloppy (sealed).  Skippy, Simplification, We the People broke best and WTP used his speed to cross over from far gate position. w/Skippy and Simplication stalking him. Simplification wasn't keeping up, maybe slop at Mountaineer wasn't the best track condition for him.  Pennyslvania Derby will most likely be on a fast, dry track, according to the weather reports. 

Cyberknife:  I just have a gut feeling this is going to be like Animal Kingdom in the Preakness, where a Shackleford type runs by him.  I kinda don't want him to win, since it will be off to the breeding shed at 3, cuz  "he has nothing left to prove" yada yada yada . (Right after Mo Don retired, I said to myself "Cyberknife will be next").     

We The People's odds---you gotta say to yourself 12-1 is certainly "good value" here for a horse with speed, if  you like him at all for your exotics ticket.  However,  I won't be going that deep.  (trifecta or superfecta is a no no here for me based on risk).

B.Dawk, if it was a monsoon, I might put him on bottom of superfecta due to Supersaver grandad, but here, I cannot support on a fast dry track.

Simplification, I have loved this guy for a while.  Still not clear on Not This Time as a sire, and many also questioned his stamina.  At 9F, I don't think it will be a problem, esp. after watching his FL Derby.   He was 4th in the KY Derby (a neck behind Zandon) and 3rd in the FL Derby (Ran out of steam from stalking leader close up the whole race and White Aborrio ran right by him in the stretch.)  

Taiba goes back to Baffert for this race, who even knows what he will do.  I usually skip wagering on any race that has a Bafffert, they are always too weird to cap.  But since I believe a 7-1 to 9-1 horse will win this race, I'm going to play the race w/out him in my win or place spot.   

Exacta box:  
Zandon (5-1), Tawny Port (6-1), Simplification (10-1), Cyberknife (3-1), Skippylongstocking (10-1)  

(You could replace Tawny Port with Taiba if you simply can't trust the Baffert Factor running 1st or 2nd.  I'm not. ).  

Superfecta/Trifecta:  too risky, I won't bother.  You could add Cyberknife, We The People, Taiba and....... Icy Storm for a bomb. (I almost feel silly for mentioning Icy, running against utter monsters, but he's HFC at Parx and this is a horse race after all. )


So I don't have the answer on winner unless I have an epiphany, so will wait for a muse or til the last minute and I see the post parade.   

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-23

You said " Early Voting's odds taking a huge hit because he was eased in the Travers. You gotta say to yourself 12-1 is certainly "good value" here if you like him at all for your exotics ticket. However, I won't be going that deep. (trifecta or superfecta is a no no here for me based on risk)"

Early voting isn't in this race, I'm not sure who you meant.

The track is sandy type and front runners do well also at this distance:  Races 52    Win% : 44% favorites   ITM% 81% $2ROI +0.02

Average Field Size 8.4 Median $2 Win Payoff $6.50 :  % Winners < 5/1 77%     % Winners >=5/1    < 10/1 15%       % Winners > 10/1 8% 

Runup might be 48 ft

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-23

smartyslew said...

You said " Early Voting's odds taking a huge hit because he was eased in the Travers. You gotta say to yourself 12-1 is certainly "good value" here if you like him at all for your exotics ticket. However, I won't be going that deep. (trifecta or superfecta is a no no here for me based on risk)"

TY!  I edited the post to fix that.  For some reason I always confuse these 2 .    

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-23

Yes, Favs win at Parx about 75% of the time.  Except the fields are not KY Derby, Belmont, Preakness and prep race monsters most of the time......So due to the assemblage of this field, I feel okay about going outside those parameters.   I don't mind being wrong, you already know that I do a lot of things based on gut and w/out studying PP numbers.  One thing I did was didn't include anyone who over their career (and I did not go by the PPs) could not achieve an "average speed" of about high 93 to 99.   (I have my own way of figuring that out.) (not in my picks, Taiba and WTP qualify there, but I just do not like them for the win or exacta.......and I will pass the race if I have to choose a baffert for the win spot, so there's that.). 

The problem for me, with PPs is that everyone is looking at same data.   Only way you can get an edge in some of thse races is to not go along with the crowd......unless there is a MORTAL LOCK.......and to me, clearly, there IS no lock here.....my gut told me it's a longshot-biased race.   

I mostly watch races, because I love watching horses run.  I love watching White Aborrio, but I did not use him but he is a major reason I will even watch the race at all, for instance.  Just certain visuals are fun for me. 

I'm planning doing only physciality handicapping at OP this year.  Why?  Because it's a skill I need to improve and I have not mastered.   So, I figure I will learn something by not taking any data to the track, since I will be there in person.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-23

I wasn't telling you who to play ! Letting you know you meant a different horse and 

threw in some data here instead of edit my previous post, my bad sorry, 

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