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Rebel Stakes 2023 Sat 2-25   Triple Crown - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started Feb-22 by Wintertrian; 1794 views.

From: Wintertrian


May as well get this one started---will make this a place holder for the race.  90% there will be some rain on Saturday.   Not positive yet, how much.   


From: princeofdoc


I was literally JUST thinking about starting a thread for this million $ race!  Thanks for getting it started!

I really like Veryifying here, but the 2nd and 3rd place is completely wide open.  I was thinking about the outside horse getting up for a slice.  What are your thoughts?  Guess I'm still riding the McPeek train :)


From: ChiefsCrown


Just looking at this race also. Liking Red Route One here, has speed to run at.  

Probably playing a tri box of Red Route One / Giant Mischief / Event Detail.

Any interest in the Saudi Cup this year?

In reply toRe: msg 3

From: pianot


Kinda find the 1-6-7 interesting. 1- Geroux rides, 6- JohnnyV rides to get points, 7- Confidence Game now or never. Havent even looked from mud googles yet. 

In reply toRe: msg 4

From: Wintertrian


I know who I WANT to move forward.  Throw some Rahy or In Realty line in there if the track comes up wet maybe?  


Before I started looking at the race, one of the horses I WANTED to win was Red Route One.  I mean, using *practical* capping skills,  Asmussen has trained this one from the beginning as a *router*.  Gets the services of Oaklawn's top rider, Christian Torres.  Horse has a nice sustained rallying style, he did well against Arabian Knight on a sloppy (sealed) track at OP and ran 2nd.   His race in the Street Sense was also on a sloppy(sealed) track, he got jostled around and came in 5th. In the BC Futurity he ran 3rd to Forte and Loggins, despite his 60-1-ish odds.   

So, at 12-1, what's not to like?    Hold the phone!  I'll be breaking my own rules and getting off him. 

I woke up this morning with a hunch on my brain and it probably makes no sense at all.  But I decided to like Gun Pilot.  He seems like the "fresh and improving horse" despite that he has very little under his belt to recommend him.   He is a decent gate horse, and will keep better contact with the field given his running style.  He is moving up in class and hasn't raced on a wet track though.   See why I'm saying "I must be nuts"?   

Confidence Game is a horse I've already expressed my love for.   He's 83% ITM after 6 races.  I have to include.  He will probably go off at very high odds.  Maybe Desormeaux can pull a Sonneteer here.     

I'll have to fill in 2 more.  Haven't decided about them yet, and maybe I will just do a few singles on the horses I do like.  The Rebel is one I struggle with every year, unless something leaps out at me.  Frosted Departure has had 11 races,   Bourbon Bash 9 races  ----- I like to do no more than 6 races.    Because none of these will have any time off before the derby's too late for that!   And over-raced horses worry me.  Not saying not to include in superfectas though. 

So any of the others can jump up.   I dunno how I feel about Mischief, 70 days off, I can't pull the trigger on that. 

In reply toRe: msg 5

From: Wintertrian


Feel free to give your thoughts.  I kinda just pulled Gun Pilot out of my pocket but I kinda like the idea of a "fresh somewhat push-button" horse and looks like Asmussen was training him to be a certain running style. 

Also you gotta think that some of the pacesetters will burn each other out?   But race is only 1-1/16th.  What do ya think?

Also, why was Reincarnate trained on Turf first?   2 first maiden races.   Odd.   Have to admit I had a good day that year that his horse ran out of the money in 2017. (the year malagacy won and sonneteer ran 2nd I think). 

Is Red Route One like a Will Take Charge, Lookin At Lucky, or Long Range Toddy? 

And what do you think about Verifying getting the #1 hole?   Often does well at OP though. 

If it rains I'm sure they will seal the track and make it fast. 

Thank your lucky stars they didn't put Rosario on a horse ya like.  Lets see how he does on the undercard.   Probably well to make up for the other day where he couldn't win anything.  

In reply toRe: msg 6

From: Wintertrian


Oh, forgot to give my bomb longshot:   Talladega.   Can race on slop.  They didn't pay $850K for no reason.   I saw his race against the 2 McPeeks and the Larry Jones horse (who I mistakenly bet).  Plenty of speed on his female side.    Un Ojo type.   The Truth or Else ran 4th in the 2015 Rebel, under Kenny Mcpeek......4th to American Pharoah that year.   Similar figs too.  

We were all expecting Yes It's True horses to do something in the past derby seasons but they didn't.  They are very speedy. 

It's intereresting how Brisnet assigns Quirin running styles, they change them from race to race and I understand why.  I just like to always look at what they were before they ran their last race.  I had this one marked on my program as an S type before that race.   They have changed it to an E4.   He was the 4th favorite in his race on 1/14, and the Favorite on 1/28, a mere 14 days later.   
Another secret, since I do use pedigree when looking at wet tracks, I look for In Reality (or sometimes Rahy) 2 of the best mudders in history IMHO and Talladega has In Reality on dam side,  and if you want to dive deep there is also Tim Tam and Known Fact, none of these need introduction for the classics.
Back with more later, when I see weather,  but looks like I'll be doing some  4, 1, 6, 7, 8  stacked exotics and that's pretty much all I got for now until I see how track is playing and if I want to replace one of those w/Giant Mischief but i don't think so today. 

The other longshots like Bash and Frosted seem to lose ground in the stretch so aren't good longshots and I have zero idea what Lobo's horse is all about.   Who knows. 


From: smartyslew


 You are on a roll, Who was Smarty Jones  BMS line  and that line closer to the horse the better for

off tracks, boths sides of the pedigree positive for slop and of course not perfect, a good percentage

leading indicater prerace and not a trailing indicater.  In Reality up close or the more the better. imo

  • Edited February 23, 2023 11:17 am  by  smartyslew

From: Wintertrian


smartyslew said...

 You are on a roll

Nah.   I can come up with own thoughts (which are only sometimes correct)   because:

1) I don't have TV   2) I don't listen to talking heads or any broadcasts before a race  3) I don't listen to podcasts  4) I never ever look at odds while handicapping  5)  I don't think there is a talking head out there who is better at everything than any of us lowly punters

My picks look odd to some people because they aren't what they already heard earlier today or yesterday, etc.  

And everybody on this board often has a FRESH TAKE.........when you all  talk about horses you  like.  And WHY. 



From: smartyslew


The talking heads don't sway me and seldom I know the odds before I'm finished capping a race.

The PP's I'm using now for this race has no odds listed and replays and race charts I get data from

And like always when the Market is open my TV is on CNBC  and one Eye on my portfolio.
if a race I'm interested in comes up .sound off Twin Spires on a computer, CNBC sound always on.
thats where the action is for me.