I know Dogs has repeated over and over that the Juvy winner winning the Derby is rare, only happening two times in the last 20 years....what his statistics neglected to demonstrate......is that only three Juvy winners entered the Derby as favorites in that time period, and two of them won.

Thus, if Forte performs well and goes into the Derby as the favorite, odds suggest he has a good chance of winning.

Usually, if not always and often, a horse coming out of a race and then into his next May not have been the favorite in his last or in the next. Moot. 

You said it: 20 years. 20 horse...sample

Only three Juvy winners entered the Derby as favorites in that time period, and two of them won. Indicative of 18 coming out of a prior race and not winning.

There are perhaps 100 reasons to name why a horse doesn't win.

But only way to win:Get there first.

Finish First 

And the Delta of favorite At Post Time in the calculations is After the race...

Derby favorites scratched immediately before May Day I Want Revenge and Omaha Beach.

And Repole's 2nd M/L in Derby scratched, and with all his cash might just have changed the actual off..betting favorite.

Odds didn't one way or another make Derby runners win or lose.

Forte owner Repole O/7.

Jock Irad Ortiz 0/5

• Hansen – 9th
• Street Sense – 1st
• Wilko – 6th
• Action This Day – 6th
• Johannesburg – 8th
• Anees – 13th
• Answer Lively – 10th
• Favorite Trick – 8th
• Unbridled’s Song – 5th
• Timber Country – 3rd
• Brocco – 4th
• Arazi – 8th
• Fly So Free – 5th
• Capote – DNF
• Chief’s Crown – 3rd
• That’s a record of 21: 2-1-3.  (39 run)
• ----------

This is thru 2014 Nyquist year if anybody wants to up date it .

• Mine that Bird - 08-09
• Street Sense - 06-07
• Sea Hero - 92-93
• Alysheba - 86-87
• Spend a Buck - 84-85

Have you heard of the "due factor"?