149^th running of Woodford Reserve Kentucky Derby to be held at Churchills Downs on May 6,2023.

 Forte is favorite with a very good track record winning major prep races on the road to derby 3 to 1 odds are good betting point of you can win the derby. Racing is always unpredictable. I personally think out of approx. 18000- 20000 produced horses in 2020 only 20 are qualifying for Kentucky derby have always a chance to win. They are lucky enough to qualify from so many horses. But it is teamwork that matters. Destiny of Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Breeder and Owners is connected together. Even one person not destined to go in the winning enclosure one weak link horse loses on the winning post with a fraction of second. Also winning Name of Race Horse is going in history books has to be strong powerful and importantly harmonious to pedigree chart.  Based on my research Pedigree do matters in big races considerably and if horses are named with connected names is pedigree chart it helps or gives push to luck factor. Even 2% extra benefit with harmonious name will ensure berth in history books. My selection as under based on Pedigreestar system  

Trainer Brad Cox among his 4 runners my first choice is Angel of Empire

              Tod Fletcher his 3 runners I prefer Kingsbarns than Forte                               

Among the Sires Good Magic -Reincarnate

                           Candy -Ride Hit Show

                           Curlin – Lord Miles  

I would prefer Angel of Empire with 8 to 1 odd than Forte

For long shots Disarm and Sun Thunder are my choices.

From 20 I have shortlisted 8 purely betting point of view permutations and combinations for tanala, forecast can give good payout

If Forte is to win then it will win convincingly destroying the field the way Derma Sotogake won in Dubai during Dubai world cup 2023 meeting in UAE Derby. I am doubtful Japanese can repeat. If Forte is not winner then I will go with Angel of Empire purely based on earlier track record and 2^nd, 3 rd. place will be long shot and combination tickets will give good payout.

However as per my Pedigreestar analysis without considering track record purely astrological foal date chart, Name Chart and pedigree analysis my Selection is as under.     

My First Choice is Disarm at 30 to 1 can upset as   

Sired by Gunrunner, Jockey Joel Rosario, Trainer Steve Asmussen should win this derby. Name Chart for the day is strong. Dosage Profile of 1-4-7-0-0 (12) 2.43,0.50 is also good. Overall considering all the aspects trainer will get his first derby which is due for him long back.        

My top 4 from which winner can emerge

Disarm

Angel of Empire

Forte

Reincarnate

view https://www.pedigreestar.com

Good stuff... I like your two longshots!

#8. Mage - I think he is the most talented in this race. Plus, I remember betting on his damn (Puca) in the Breeder's Juvenile Fillies after she broke her maiden by 16 lengths. Mage has the highest Brisnet numbers of any maiden wins and he did it against more experience horses. In the Fountain of Youth Stakes, he was 3 wide the whole way, going up against the 2yr. old champ (Forte) and finished 6 lengths behind the winner. In the Florida Derby, he broke slowly and shuffled to last and settled behind horses before he made a sweeping move at the 3/8ths pole. The big move was a little bit early and he got caught by Forte.          

I'm not saying you're wrong about Mage......his first race was simply awesome!  After watching it, I immediately texted the head of Circa's Derby futures and asked him to list Mage.  I was wanting about 200-1 for such a late starter.  They listed him at 140-1, I thought about it, thought it was a bit too low, next day he was bet to 100-1, and then I decided to forget him.  BIG mistake, since I liked that first race so much and got him listed at long odds.  I sure wish I now had him at 140!

However, the reason I balked, is still the reason I'll only play him a bit underneath.  He is a talented colt, no doubt.....but he gives up way too much in experience and foundation to virtually every other colt in the field.  It takes a super athlete, with a suspect trainer, to be able to buck the odds and win the Derby after starting so late with so little experience.  Don't think Mage is a Justify......BUT he could certainly hit the board with the perfect trip.  Good luck!

Let me this straight. You turn down a 140-1 future wager on Mage? If you haven't already kick yourself please let me do the honors. Mage was my first love but I ended up splitting my win bet between Mage and Kingsbarns. I still had a $40 win bet on Mage so I came away pretty happy. 

The winner won because of the jockey ride. Castellano.

Castellano came off an Injury and had to slowly get back on better horses via jockey agent work. And his riding skill in race 10 on card said he was now riding back to his top timing and condition.

To which I wrote after the 10th race here above:

Race 9..... 22-1 shot winner.

Jockey JJ Castellano aboard and will have "it in the Derby.  From the 14 gate no less. Closed with distance measurement and timing and placement of horse..

# Eight 8 Derby J J Castellano

He's back..

OldForesight said...

Let me this straight. You turn down a 140-1 future wager on Mage? If you haven't already kick yourself please let me do the honors. Mage was my first love but I ended up splitting my win bet between Mage and Kingsbarns. I still had a $40 win bet on Mage so I came away pretty happy. 

Oh boy.  We now have the "after the derby and I got it right" which includes the sometime usual bashing (but few would do that)  of other cappers which is usually done by adolescents. 

Like I said, I will continue to fade horses w/Apollo curse, since Curlin and others couldn't do it, and just because mage and justify did.....these horses USUALLY run more like Kingsbarns. 

It's one thing to be happy and self-congratulatory....its' another to suggest to others that they should be "kickiing themselves" which is a form of targetting and bashing.   That worked back in the day of adolescence at the OTB.   Most forums would consider this a jerk move.  

As I do.  

Something, something about a blind squirrel...

I should have taken your advice dogs. I had the 22-1 in the ninth. It really made my day at Canterbury. However I did not go with Mage. So many scratches the last 36 hours is tough recap especially when you are away with friends for a long weekend. Oh well still had a blast and cashed some tickets including the oaks winner. Nice call and observation on JJ. Congratulations to all who had Mage. Final note my futures was on Skinner which sent me reeling when he scratched. The way the dirt was playing I doubt he would have gotten top 5. We’ll never know. North 

You have NO idea how hard I have been kicking myself!  And my post to you was before the scratches, and 4 days prior to the Derby.  As I posted several times on Derby Day, I completely changed my mind and elevated Mage from underneath plays to a key on top, so I did hit the exacta and the tri.

I changed my mind for three reasons:

1) The Sat. morning scratch of Forte, who was my key....
2) The almost-win of Fort Bragg in the Pat Day Mile, 8th race on the card, elevating FL Derby to key race status for me
3) Re-watching both the Ft. of Youth and the FL Derby, 2 hrs. before Derby, and noticing what somehow escaped me on initial viewing...
     a) Cut off in stretch by Forte in the former, losing all momentum, would have easily placed, and
    b) Left at gate in FL Derby, compromising his run just enough to place instead of win