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Saturday BC ticket   Breeders' Cup - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started Nov-4 by Wintertrian; 1354 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Nov-4

My post was posted before races went off but got stuck in the spam filter.  I will try again, I already had one winner in R1
Hoping this helps others.  It might just hurt you though.  Maybe you will see a horse I liked that you like
 

 
M/L odds are plonked due to  scratches and made before the post position draw.  "Most Vulnerable" (i.e. underlays) for me are Inspiral and Mostadaph, seems like afterthoughts since missing the Championship Series races due to bad ground and BC seemed like Plan B.  
 
 King of Steel, who just ran the most diiffciult race in last, but they put him on a plane to travel, go thru quarantine, etc.  I can't support horse in the win spot. .  Ushba Tesoro has an American gate phobia so who knows how he will run, but my doubt and his projected very low odds will keep me away from a win there, too.  (I have alternates, see below Shahryar, Jasper Krone, and Win Carnelian will be on my tickets).  
 
Here are some horses I like.  I remember when top talking heads had Derma Sotograke as their win pick.  Now he comes back off layoff and nobody wants him.   Hoping Baffert and Cox horses get into a speed dual and open it up for others. 
 
Here are horses I like: 
 
R1:  Siskany, Salesman, Kiss Today Goodbye 
R2:  Seal Team, Almendares, Maltese Falcon, Silver Knot
R3:  Charge It, National Treasure, Cody's Wish, Stage Raider
R4:  Fev Rover, Warm Heart, With the Moonlight, McKulick 
R5:  Goodnight Olive,  Eda, Matareya, Clearly Unhinged
R6:  Gina Romantica, Astronomer, Mawj, More Than Looks.  lower exotics Win Carnelian    
R7:  Randomized, Wet Paint, Clairiere, A Mo Reay 
R8:  Auguste Rodin, Shahryar, Onesto, Balladeer, Gold Phoenix 
R9:   Dreamlike, Derma Sotogake
R10:  Jasper Krone, Big Invasion, Live in the Dream, Gear Jockey, Roses for Debra
R11:  Elite Power, The Chosen Vron, Nakatomi
R12:  Woodbine Way, Hayley Levade, Lunar Impact 
 
Big bomber longshot: Besides Shahryar, I like another Japanese horse in R10:  Jasper Krone.  Mori Hideyuki, trainer. In Japan, he is known as a “Sensei,” a title of respect for his considerable achievements.  He is the original mold-breaker for putting Japanese horses to win big G1s in different nations. He spends some serious money at the sales here, and likes to buy siblings of Kentucky Derby winners.  At high prices. He always looks so joyous and happy.   He brought Jasper Prince, Jasper Great, Matera Sky, Pingxiang to past BC races.  He brought France Go De Ina to the Preakness.  Gotta respect his tenacity to bring horses here to race.  GETS THE SAME JOCKEY AS USHBA TESORO so maybe this is the one.  


 

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Nov-4

Only managed two wins today, Idiomatic and August Rodin. One of the chalkiest BCs I can remember.

In reply toRe: msg 2
Northof64

From: Northof64

Nov-4

After 2 days a $170 profit with a couple of near misses like all of us. Hit the 2 races after the classic that bailed me out. Sorry to redboard but it was hard to keep up the posting as the party/day moved on. Hope everyone enjoyed like me. Thank you for all your feedback it was fun. North

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-4

Maybe everybody changed their feed and diet. the Distaff staggered home and the track looked slow

in some races.

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

Nov-5

smartyslew said:

the track looked slow in some races.

As I wrote our articles I can see last year's results and, damn, the main track races ran slower than at Keeneland.   You'd have thought Santa Anita would be a much faster surface, and usually it is.  They didn't roll the track hard....

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Nov-5

Maybe that was an attempt to create a safer surface. Last thing SA needed was to have horses breaking down with the world watching.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Nov-5

I'm sure you are on the same page as Raesfan and are reporting the way it is and I hoped HISA stepped in and suggested that

they don't roll the track ,of course I don't know and I haven't read your sight yet. I had a feeling this might happen and it

effected the closers in my view, and I didn't bet much. I knew who I wanted to win effected me more the way the last month

has played out then a good clear eye of being objective and that set up a losing scenario for me.

As far as I know it was a safe meet and that is a good thing.

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Nov-5

You were almost right on Derma. He ran a great race coming off a 180 day rest. Watching the Classic i was thinking how Go Rocket Ride would have fared in the BCC?

Practical Move, missed him in the Dirt Mile. 

Two i think are headed for retirement would be Clairiere and Dr Schivel, both picked to win and didn't show up.

In reply toRe: msg 8
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Nov-5

I did pretty well on Saturday, playing a few of my longshots as singles.  Derma Sotogake made my day $$ wise.  Shahryar too (had the tri in that race. )   

I was right about the ones I said not to play;  although Inspiral managed to pull it off.  

I really didn't play many races and would never have had Master of the Seas.  Congrats to those who did.

I was happy for Dutrow with White Abarrio, but those odds were way too low for me to take and I was glad I stuck with Derma.  Auguste Rodin was a shoe-in, if you watched all his other races, besides the fact of his magnificent looks.  

I was happy to have a day where I could just "look in" on a few races while making enough "stock" for the entire winter with 30 pounds of organic vegetables and herbs I bought at the Farmer's Market last week.  (I know the grower, I have gone out to help them pick beans a few times but it's 80 miles one way for me so I don't go often to help them.)   Stock- making is a job where you have to stay home all day long.   It's all in the freezer now.  I used 6-10 different veggies and herbs for each.  No chemicals or sugar of course.   

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Nov-5

ChiefsCrown said...

You were almost right on Derma

I played him exactly where I thought he would end up. So that was good.   I play all my picks in different spots, they are just suggestions, not necessarily "win" bets.  

They didn't bring him over a 2nd time to embarass themselves. 

What I really got out of the weekend is that I will go back to playing where there is more transparency and reading my foreign subscriptions by writers who know what is going on.   Also to get nose out of PPs and use logic.  (why is horse here, why did horse do so poorly lately, what is intent of trainer/connections, is this Plan B because Plan A didn't work out, is it a hidden prep for a better race, is it a last hurrah for a horse that will be announced as retired in the next week, etc.) 

Sometimes it's as simple as "we have room for 1 more on the plane"......and they bring along a horse who will get some racing experience----jet fuel is expensive.  Ask yourself why is this horse in this race?  I do that beforehand for every horse. 

   PPs don't tell you --nor do U.S. bettors have access to veterinary records. 

And by the way, a lot of US sportswriters and podcasters comb forums for info.   ANY and EVERY forum. 

I know because I had to help a freind a few years ago who has an almost unknown blog that a sportswriter pretty much lifted word for word, and then published it......and we ended up going all the way up to his editor in chief, and prove the point with time-stamps, etc. .  Much of his article was redacted (or at least he tried to change some of the wording).   It was also told to me that a well known podcaster repeated what I said about one horse (this came straight from person who shared it with them before he mentioned it out of nowhere on his show) so  don't kid yourself that they are the best cappers.   It's the age of the internet, lots of low effort people out there......and then many who actually do their own work. 

 

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