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Kentucky Derby 2018 ~ DogsUp ~ Delta    Triple Crown

Started Nov-11 by DogsUp; 1854 views.
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Nov-11

175 days til the 1st Saturday in May and without delay it's time to say the horse that will be used for comparison for the time being and perhaps  throughout the duration ,..

.. The Delta Horse is

AVERY ISLAND

Oh how I wish it could be a short and sweet story, many here proly' feel the same.

In reply toRe: msg 1
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Nov-12

Avery Island is not the first to have this registered name.

His Dam is Kinda Spicy.

And for hoof~note starters: Avery Island Louisiana is the home of the kinda spicy Tobasco sauce company. (Later next yr; perhaps visit the fact that the company did not want the Jockey Club to authorize the continued use of this the trade mark following its use for runner Tobasco Cat). This is not to say or connect the 2 however.

Street Sense Dad/Sire ~ Derby √ Travers √ winner, 2 yr old colt of the Yr. Breeders' Cup winner, Second Preak other Graded winners.

In reply toRe: msg 1
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Nov-13

While I admire your courage in bringing forth your Delta horse so early, I wonder why he impresses you more than Good Magic?  Or Solomini?  Or Montauk?  After all, a one turn mile victory at Aqueduct is rarely a predictor for success in the Derby....

In reply toRe: msg 2
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Nov-13

In addition, I believe it was the slowest Nashua in the last 10 years.....do you imagine he'll run back in the Remsen?  We'll at least get to see if he can run a distance.  However, the Nashua/Remsen route has not been a successful one for Derby participants recently.  I believe only Mohaymen got to the Derby, also trained by McLaughlin.....with that schedule.

Pletcher had indicated Montauk might go in the Remsen, but he hasn't even worked since his impressive maiden victory Oct. 7th.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Nov-13

Moyhamen is a great example of what the 'Delta horse is all about.' 

That year January 2016, maybe even December ..  (d) Delta horse was Nyquist.  

The 2 undefeated colts faced off in Fl Derby.

In that race Fl Dby and Ky Derby and totally 8 races ... Never hit the Board. Moyhamen was perhaps most peeps Delta horse. 

In a word .. After all is said and done ... The Delta horse is firstly ' the one to measure from ' up ..those with more points ...faster times measure  above ... Down.  below and all 3 yr olds to the sides. And along this journey he can become one who although  might not win but after all is said in done ....such as I liked the 2017 Derby M/L and betting favorite to win and I tossed out 8 horses. The field now 12, then applied the Delta horse I used for months and months ...2nd and 3rd with 10 others. 

Take the Delta mare Ami's Mesa ..the Key, and yeah ..want her to get beat by higher odds and the flush favorite out of the money.

This colt  Avery Island to my surprise and unhappiness is already before running his next @ mile and an eighth +\- 25-1 Winter book. (hi Winter!).

They started with Joe Bravo irons for Avie ,rather than a jock who ties up a lot of horses and trades up and off.

One does not fall in love with the Delta horse, or say all or nothing 

And along the way, say injury etc, one can see all the possibilities fro. The reference of the delta horse. Looking At Lee all most didn't make it to the Derby .. By the whiskers of his chin.

If one's Delta horse moves up or down .. It becomes part of the on-going evaluation, (d) doesn't go into denial phase. Etc.

Hoofnote .. I don't play winter book.

In reply toRe: msg 5
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Nov-13

Still unclear as to why you are choosing AI over Good Magic, or Solomini....I get that you are calling him the "Delta horse", just not sure why.  Is it simply because he won the Nashua?  As I previously said, only one horse in the last 10 years even made it to the Derby after winning that race....just looking for more strategic reasoning here, Dogs...

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Nov-13

Slow, cause joey Bravo had them  licked early and beat'em @ the wire by 4~ish.

Out of the #2 slot, colts one and three hole bumped w Avid between and yet Avie was at the lead @ 4 fl in :47. If I were initiating the irons and meet with bumped at gate and yet cleared field @ 4 fl.;

Just finish up the paper work.  (d)

  • Edited November 13, 2017 7:49 pm  by  DogsUp
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Nov-13

Accordingly my individual Delta is not what you think it should be because it is other runners that should be ..that would in this case be your Delta or opinion of what should be the popular horse(s) now Deltas.

Anecdotal media info prior says Godolphin has few but pricy 2 yos and they plan to polish up their reputation with ...perhaps Derby, and Godolphin made headway in 2 wins Bred Cup 2017. A perusal of breeding and family line runners I like.  Plans and playbook in place, refreshed @ Godolphin.

As for feel Nyquist was a 7 Dosage, would the jockey win his first two and only Key Dbys?

I read the anecdotal this was I'll Have Another's team communicating planing, teaming with owner to tub boy.

About anecdotal

You might of read here when I noted Baffert described  Arrogate's last of 3 workouts as nice. Nice. That was the most profound and influentialcoming from the trainer's mouth I ever read.

  • Edited November 13, 2017 9:04 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 7
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Nov-17

Avie's slow time in Nashua is a hidden blessing. BTW he was fav bet  Maiden. 10 Field @ The Spa.

In his last he bursted through the middle of runners 1 and 3 out of the two slot like an NFL full back ( which adds 2seconds to his leading at 4 Fl @ 47 seconds, so would be 45). The bursted could be considered a busted through and runs like his dam's grand sire Seattle Slew. Charging!

Throughout Jockey Joey jingle the reins and no need for whip.

The ride out in anticipation of a mile an an eighth in Dec @ Aqueduct put some frosting on a simplistic win while not showing their hand.

~~~~~~

Looking @ Saturday @ Gulfstream for a race with potential to fall apart Race 7 @ 5.5 Dirt 2 yold fillies: Sire Wildcat Heir (deceased 2015) has two in this one ~~#1 Althena's Revenge and  #7 Wild Cat Grace .....  Dad is 16% winners with FTS/ newcomers. 20/1 and 30/1 respectively.

The bit~short distance, slow surface  @ GPWest,  2017-birthed  latecomers.q

And ,.......  #6 bred stats Body High... Small sample but 3 for 11.

Too much Delta Dilemmas to construct ticket conundrum.

If significant # scratches .10 Super. Say a short odds runner scratches  while tossing #2,3,,8

  • Edited November 18, 2017 12:53 am  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 1
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Nov-19

The Derby is a 20 field 3 year old contest. Stats show (this late in the year should hold up) he is 20th money earner and the bell curve takes into account the substantial Breeders' Cup juvey purse @ 2 mil~e~yon dollah. 

As for money earned per race (lost Maiden At the Spa as betting favorite in ten horse field) AVIE ~ Avery Island's fungible earnings for 2017 ( which takes into account # of races won ~~ as the divisor) he becomes 9th to 13th as dollars per race. He is actual!y 13th, but a graded winner and the others just maiden win. Simple division.

Ostensibly, sometimes I play the drum kit better than horses, and visa a versa, and sometimes neither. I have a stomach ache that this guy is already 25/1 on the future Winter book (hi Winter!)  having won G2 on down state New York winter track. 

Remember, the Delta horse is for the moment in the cosmos of time. But for the time being he remains: The Delta.

(d)

  • Edited November 19, 2017 6:21 pm  by  DogsUp
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