This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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I think this horse is actually a turf horse that is decent on the dirt. This may be his last race on dirt. Is it customary for Biancone or any trainer, to prepare for the Derby with primarily turf works? What does his :57.80 5f work on the lawn signify if anything? This is a horse I liked early on the trail. Does he have a shot to hit the board?
I think they’re just happy to be in the derby; they know he’s a turf horse. He’s beautiful though.
RAESFAN said...think this horse is actually a turf horse that is decent on the dirt.
So was Animal Kingdom. But since I also have a very (very) long list of Omni-surface stakes winners, AK, Einstein, et al and so many mnayh others, my feeling has always been that a champion can run on anything. Horses bred for the fake stuff though, need to like it. Guy who taught me horse racing said hand an apple to sandy koulfax and he will still strike you out. He taught me the athlete in preminent, just like human runners train on the beach on sand, on asphalt going uphill, etc.
This over distinction about surface, I blame the beyer adoration society who can't seem to handicap on tapeta, synth or turf, becuase you know, his numbers don't work on that, and "this is America, we race on dirt here!" kind of thinking. Which, as you may have surmised, I do not much cotton to. I won't mention names but you will always have people who are going to want things to be set up so that it fulfills their own agenda so that the outcome benefits their power.
Back to Sole, he was tired entering the Belmont, trainer is kicking himself for bringing him back on 10 days rest, big mistake, horse got a slight musculoskelatal problem from that .... so turf has been gentler I ugess. I just don't know enugh about biancone (the new one, not the old personna) to know if he's gonna have this horse *right*. If this horse is right, then he will do very well. Because he can run tiring horses down n the stretch, but he's a deep closer, so if this race plays to speedsters on front then he won't bring it........he was my "real" belmont horse and that race didn't happen this year. IMHO this horse has a very commanding presence.
Im sure you noticed he has run ITM in every career race other than the one he was yanked back too quickly to run in. He's on my ticket for sure, cuz I gotta "trust the horse".
But really Raes, my opinion about Ky Derby is that I probably won;t play it after this year. I say that every year but I keep watching how 50% or more of the Derby field go on to be sprinters. I mean, you just don't see REAL classic distance race horses being turned into dirt sprinters anywhere else. Ugh. And the point system hasn't really changed that because the "need for speed" is so entrenched.....and why we went so long w/out a TC winner. So my penchant for finding the true classic distance horses, coupled wth the fact that breeders aren't breeding for that, and tracks aren't writing races for them in the US, means that I am pursuing a lost cause. And I suspect that is why Steve Roman got out. Horses with 7.00 DIs winning races, and then all the others over 4.00 now....we can see the direction it's going going going gone.
Country House and Code of Honor were *officially* stamina guys and people raised eyebrows when I took them last year. It's like nobody even notices a stamina horse anymore. (here we do but I mean the general punter world). Cuz you know if they don't run 1st or 2nd in an 8.5 or 9F race then they are tossers. And we don't have enough prep races for them to shine, the prep season needs to be 6 months longer. :)
I will play The Belmont when it's normal distance. The Preakness, well I skip that race most years. No interest at all in that one.
So my picks are not gonna help anybody unless the pace melts down and the true stamina horses pass others in the stretch. That is how I naturally cap 1-1/4 races, despite that is not how we actually run them, or prepare the tracks here, to serve. As a matter of fact, most of the "pay for" sheets seem to cap this race just as if it were a typical 9F race on any given saturday acrosss the U.S. That's why the Belmont usually pays well, right?
Authentic looks like a Practical Joke type. Yet he'll be 3rd on everyone's ticket. Max Player seems like a tired horse, I think Rice didn't want him to go to the Derby and that's why he got *moved*. That will prove to be a mistake but who knows what magic Asmussen has.
Just for the Record I watched Jerry Lewis get a base hit off of Sandy Koufax
In 1963 or 64 in one of those dodgers vs Celeb. baseball games.
It wasn't Koufax's best stuff but it was better stuff than any body else
he faced that day. It might of been a Granny Smith. lol
Lewis got a few hits against the dodgers over the years.
I was a big Dodgers fan. My grandfather taught me (behind mom's back) to drink Shaeffer beer and watch baseball.
He also taught me swear words inadvertently, as he was using them all the time against the NY Yankees. Koufax was left handed like me. My grandmother said I would be useless in the kitchen, due to that, so I would go watch baseball with my grandpa instead. I was like 6 or 8 years old! But I did have a long life of struggling to use scissors, and of course you can't read the markings on a measuring cup because they are on the other side, and then those school desks, remember these? Can you imagine being a leftie and trying to sit there all day?
If you are left handed you will really appreciate looking at this: your whole arm would be hanging in mid air while trying to write, and the notebooks were all bound on the left side, so of course you were smearing ink across the page as you wer trying to write: (I was so happy to find top bound legal pads and steno pads when I got older!!!)
Picture yourself in that desk, writing in a left-bound notebook .....its like childhood torture.
I don't think right handed people know about this stuff.
And in the process of trying to get me to NOT be left handed (so that life would be *easier* for me) I had to learn to do everything right handed, except write. So now I am 100% ambidextrous.......except for writing. I can play sports, bowl, bat, play my guitar, just about anything, with either hand,,depending on what I feel like doing.
So I wonder how my brain works.
Sounds like you use both side of your brain!
I agree about the breeding. I think it may work against then this year because much of the so-called legit speed is caught outside. They may be compromised. I think an upset is possible.
Today I thought Gamine might be adversely affected by both the distance and pace pressure she had never seen before. I thought the “other” Daredevil might pick up the pieces. I never thought that she would be part of the pace. Everyone avoided the rail like the plague, which cost Swiss Skydiver. Maybe I’ll get lucky tomorrow again.
watch the replay, swiss skydiver made an inside move on the rail and jv rushed up and cut her off with the winner right behind him and they had the one boxed in.savvy move by JV. Swiss had to back up and lost her momo and had to wait on the winner to make her move and follow her past Gamine.Brad Cox might have to give a piece to Jv. I thought all 3 ran a great race the fastest Oaks ever.