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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 46638 views.
In reply toRe: msg 117
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-18

Yes Obesso in @ about 85/1.

Lookin at Lee was in then out then back in the KDY.

The current streak of favorites winning Derby goes back to Orb in 2013. He was followed by Cal Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, and Justify. American Pharoah and Justify won the Triple Crown. Nyquist entered the Derby undefeated.

And fav Maximum Security won but DQed. 

2012 I'll Have Another.

I think there was a streak where 20 favs didn't Win. 

In reply toRe: msg 118
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-18

Past Derbs winners in top flight of 3 at 4 furlongs.

Think this crop will see 3 at 4fl have those 3 finish in top 4

Like American Pharoah

https://youtu.be/3814_3XpmTc

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-18

DogsUp said...

Like American Pharoah

https://youtu.be/3814_3XpmTc

thanks for posting that. I often don't watch enough ex KY Derbies.   

I can't help this nagging feeling that EQ is Dormund.  

Anyway, ever notice watching Pharoah from the back his butt goes really far upwards into the air when he runs, I think that was his "engine" which was very powerful.  I think I'm going to start looking for that upward swing he had.   

Ticketman

From: Ticketman

Apr-18

Morn Winter ...

I just like his female side of his pedigree ....

There a few things I don't like ..... his CMP Numbers

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-18

& All

If EQ doesn't win that's a good thing for 'trapping' ticket construction 

My/a ticket construction is not created to and in the hope that the favorite wins (like it did 7 consecutive times* +DQ) followed by chalked other M/Lers. And everybody (annual one shooter Derby player) and their brother and sister go to the window. Even triple crowners of late.. how easy is that. 

There is a horseplay heckler in my area. He will talk out loud to be overheard putting down another strangers comments.  Or disparage another who is identifying his horse by number as the race unfolds or closes.

So about construction; I'm watching and rooting say the 6, then the 12, then the 4 and 7 at the same time in a race. 

So heckler thinks I'm changing out loud 'a / the winner. And he makes his comment aloud.

What he didn't know was that as the race evolved; and as longer odds runners improved position.. were providing a better Tri payoff.  

So to those who would want to leave off EQ on ticket..have at it.

In a 20 horse field using 5 horse..have it 

Any substantial tic requires good keys and trapping ability.

One can talk all day about yada and yada, dis & dat:

The number of combinations that are possible with 20 numbers is 1,048,575. 

(d) enjoy the trip..life's and The Derby

  • Edited April 18, 2021 7:56 am  by  DogsUp
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-18

DogsUp said...

The number of combinations that are possible with 20 numbers is 1,048,575. 

Many people play / gamble at all different kinds of things, yet they don't know much about the odds related to the game they are engaging in.  .
In poker, for instance,  a royal straight flush is around 0.000154% or 1 in 650,000.   

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-18

I do agree that ticket construction is key, especially for the tri's.....I, too, will be keying EQ, but I will be doing so with HM.  Thus EQ/HM with EQ/HM with about 9 horses.....and another EQ/HM, with 9, with EQ/HM.....as well as 9 with EQ/HM with EQ/HM.

So I'll need EQ and HM to both hit the board....and I think they will.

Supers are a little more complicated....and more expensive!

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-18

Yeah and the cards don't need to be mucked and fed.

My note today to all is BTW; Joe-ell Rosario is the number one leading money winner rider with over 7 million now. 

WADR there are very few jockeys on the planet that if Rosario took over in big races it wouldn't be an upgrade.

He has been riding LIGHTS OUT.

He made a move today at Keenland I've never seen.

  • Edited April 19, 2021 12:49 am  by  DogsUp
Husker (Birdman506)

From: Husker (Birdman506)

Apr-19

Wintertrian said:

In poker, for instance,  a royal straight flush is around 0.000154% or 1 in 650,000.

I suspect you arrived at this information by reading Wikipedia, but my question is:  Why wouldn't the calculation be something like 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x 48 = 311,875,200?

I realize the chances would change if you were playing a 5-card game vs. a 7-card game and how many other players there are, etc.

This assumes you are playing with a single 52-card deck.

Curious minds would like to know.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-19

Rosario is a superb rider & has been for years.  We all know that, Dogs.

As you like to say, every Derby is different & each race has situational dynamics.

Rosario is a downgrade for Rock Your World...just my opinion.  :)

In most cases, I agree with your general remark.

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