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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started Feb-28 by DogsUp; 34634 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-18

DogsUp said...

The number of combinations that are possible with 20 numbers is 1,048,575. 

Many people play / gamble at all different kinds of things, yet they don't know much about the odds related to the game they are engaging in.  .
In poker, for instance,  a royal straight flush is around 0.000154% or 1 in 650,000.   

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-18

I do agree that ticket construction is key, especially for the tri's.....I, too, will be keying EQ, but I will be doing so with HM.  Thus EQ/HM with EQ/HM with about 9 horses.....and another EQ/HM, with 9, with EQ/HM.....as well as 9 with EQ/HM with EQ/HM.

So I'll need EQ and HM to both hit the board....and I think they will.

Supers are a little more complicated....and more expensive!

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-18

Yeah and the cards don't need to be mucked and fed.

My note today to all is BTW; Joe-ell Rosario is the number one leading money winner rider with over 7 million now. 

WADR there are very few jockeys on the planet that if Rosario took over in big races it wouldn't be an upgrade.

He has been riding LIGHTS OUT.

He made a move today at Keenland I've never seen.

  • Edited April 19, 2021 12:49 am  by  DogsUp
Husker (Birdman506)

From: Husker (Birdman506)

Apr-19

Wintertrian said:

In poker, for instance,  a royal straight flush is around 0.000154% or 1 in 650,000.

I suspect you arrived at this information by reading Wikipedia, but my question is:  Why wouldn't the calculation be something like 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x 48 = 311,875,200?

I realize the chances would change if you were playing a 5-card game vs. a 7-card game and how many other players there are, etc.

This assumes you are playing with a single 52-card deck.

Curious minds would like to know.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-19

Rosario is a superb rider & has been for years.  We all know that, Dogs.

As you like to say, every Derby is different & each race has situational dynamics.

Rosario is a downgrade for Rock Your World...just my opinion.  :)

In most cases, I agree with your general remark.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-19

What if deuces are wild?  

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-19

The chances of getting a specific royal flush are 1 in 2,598,960 hands. 

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-19

We all got'ah make our secret (tomato) sauce and recipes based on....how much we are willing to bet on it. 

So if Joel no hit board = should have kept jockey for better ride.

Colt hits board= so would have original jock.

Wish you all/Steve a fun and winning Derby.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-19

Not only a downgrade, but one must look at initial choices.  He chose to go to BG stakes to ride Untreated for Todd over staying and riding Dream Shake or Rock Your World in the SA Derby....

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-19

Agree....a must! not to have 1 runner that has to be in the ticket/ a must be to cash...

With tosses and keys in wheel about $150/$200 for a dollar tri usually gets the job done.

 Dogs Tri tick this yr may be like my Always Dreaming ticket (damn favs winning 7 yrs now). 

It had 5 winners/must win on top. Then bunch below About $160 or $200 cost for ticket.  40/1 return. IF the fav ran out still had live tics.

  • Edited April 19, 2021 3:43 pm  by  DogsUp
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