Wintertrian said:

In poker, for instance,  a royal straight flush is around 0.000154% or 1 in 650,000.

I suspect you arrived at this information by reading Wikipedia, but my question is:  Why wouldn't the calculation be something like 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x 48 = 311,875,200?

I realize the chances would change if you were playing a 5-card game vs. a 7-card game and how many other players there are, etc.

This assumes you are playing with a single 52-card deck.

Curious minds would like to know.

Rosario is a superb rider & has been for years.  We all know that, Dogs.

As you like to say, every Derby is different & each race has situational dynamics.

Rosario is a downgrade for Rock Your World...just my opinion.  :)

In most cases, I agree with your general remark.

What if deuces are wild?  

The chances of getting a specific royal flush are 1 in 2,598,960 hands. 

We all got'ah make our secret (tomato) sauce and recipes based on....how much we are willing to bet on it. 

So if Joel no hit board = should have kept jockey for better ride.

Colt hits board= so would have original jock.

Wish you all/Steve a fun and winning Derby.

Not only a downgrade, but one must look at initial choices.  He chose to go to BG stakes to ride Untreated for Todd over staying and riding Dream Shake or Rock Your World in the SA Derby....

Agree....a must! not to have 1 runner that has to be in the ticket/ a must be to cash...

With tosses and keys in wheel about $150/$200 for a dollar tri usually gets the job done.

 Dogs Tri tick this yr may be like my Always Dreaming ticket (damn favs winning 7 yrs now). 

It had 5 winners/must win on top. Then bunch below About $160 or $200 cost for ticket.  40/1 return. IF the fav ran out still had live tics.

DogsUp said:

Wish you all/Steve a fun and winning Derby.

You, too, Dogs.  :)

That's true, too.  

I have nothing against Rosario as I've said more than once.

In the particular case of RYW, I thought Rispoli was especially well-suited.

It's in the rearview mirror now.

Onward & upward, Prince.  :)

Gambling on the KY Derby in particular, is one of the few decisions where I allow a little bit of karma, intuition, etc. to play a role.  

That would be where I insert the "luck" component.  

Some people just have "strings" of bad luck, just like jockeys and trainers have cold spells. Rick Porter for instance, as an owner.  So yea, I let a bit of that ju-ju stuff creep into my wagering.