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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started Feb-28 by DogsUp; 34599 views.
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-14

Those aren’t all-weather tracks in the sense that they’re synthetic surfaces; they’re just dirt.  They just call all non-turf races that.  If you click on the dates of his races it shows the conditions and you can see his have all been on dirt.  Compare it to say Rombauer—the one at Golden Gate (the El Camino Real) says it was on all weather, Tapeta.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-14

I think those figures are based on pedigree?  Not sure how they calculate them—whether it’s just sire and dam/bms or if it involves more?  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-14

Everybody and their brother use to look for Halo in a pedigree for a off track. lot of water came down the Mississippi since then.

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

May-14

No, not confusing at all. That clarifies that part of the pp's for me. I can usually read the Bris form, must of misunderstood that. The DRF pp's....forget it, not good at that one!

Thanks Slew.

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

May-14

Smarty just schooled me on this issue.

Thanks!!!

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-14

Oldbettowin said...

Those aren’t all-weather tracks in the sense that they’re synthetic surfaces; they’re just dirt.  They just call all non-turf races that.

Yes Japan runs on dirt.  That is one of the reasons why many think one of those will eventually win one of our big races. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-14

Oldbettowin said...

I think those figures are based on pedigree?  Not sure how they calculate them—whether it’s just sire and dam/bms or if it involves more?  

I find them to be somewhat off.  Rombauer for instance.  A stamina horse. They have his AWDs very low

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-14

ChiefsCrown said...

Looking at The Racing Post run lines (very vague) it looks like France Go de Ina is an  AW runner. Shows 4 races on the stuff. Brisnet pp's show he ran a 107 on a fast track. Probably a moot point. Info in case anyone's using him.

Since Smarty schooled you in all that, I will offer that a friend transposed the figs for FGdI and they are 82, 85, and 84 going backwards from his last race.   What method he uses to do this I do not know.   But if valid, somewhere around the speed figs that keepmeinmind, unbridled honor run.   

FGdI won 2 races at 1-1/8.  One of the reassons I like him and Risk Taking. 

 

What we do know is that Japan racing is not done as fast as US racing.  

Once the tracks stop being souped up maybe an across-the-pond DIRT horse can win this.  Lani did pretty well.  I think Casino Drive would have done quite well had he not picked up that pebble and bruised his foot and scratched.   

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-14

That’s part of what makes me wonder what goes into their potential speed figures—the ones labeled fst, off, dis, trf.  They have Rombauer for example listed with a 110 for distance, tied for third in the race, but his sire and bms must not have tried routes very often with just 6.7 and 6.8 furlongs respectively.  I think those figures (6.7 & 6.8) are based on actual wins by the sire and bms but the figures up on the right are somehow based on what the pedigree says he should be able to do.  I don’t really pay much attention to the sire/bms figures.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-14

Oldbettowin said...

They have Rombauer for example listed with a 110 for distance, tied for third in the race, but his sire and bms must not have tried routes very often with just 6.7 and 6.8 furlongs respectively.  I think those figures (6.7 & 6.8) are based on actual wins by the sire and bms

 

You are right.  I think they DO get their figures from actual wins from sire and bms.

But his sire side dosage Index is 1.86.  That takes him out of having inherited much speed from his sire side chefs.   But his mare triads are 13-17-22.   That's a distance horse for sure....he can do 12F.   But his speed from sire side is not fast.  He's acutally not that fast to begin with even on his mare side.  That is not where his talent lies.  

His running style is from back of the pack, so if you think he has the 'jets' to run by tiring speed horses, then use him.  I'm not sure that is a good setup for the Preakness unless the speedier ones get wobbly in the stretch.  

I like him better for The Belmont myself.  For the KY Derby and Preakness it just always seems to me that you need some speed.  For the Belmont you need the lungs and pedigree and locomotive engines do better there?  

 

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