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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started Feb-28 by DogsUp; 34610 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-14

Oldbettowin said...

Those aren’t all-weather tracks in the sense that they’re synthetic surfaces; they’re just dirt.  They just call all non-turf races that.

Yes Japan runs on dirt.  That is one of the reasons why many think one of those will eventually win one of our big races. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-14

Oldbettowin said...

I think those figures are based on pedigree?  Not sure how they calculate them—whether it’s just sire and dam/bms or if it involves more?  

I find them to be somewhat off.  Rombauer for instance.  A stamina horse. They have his AWDs very low

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-14

ChiefsCrown said...

Looking at The Racing Post run lines (very vague) it looks like France Go de Ina is an  AW runner. Shows 4 races on the stuff. Brisnet pp's show he ran a 107 on a fast track. Probably a moot point. Info in case anyone's using him.

Since Smarty schooled you in all that, I will offer that a friend transposed the figs for FGdI and they are 82, 85, and 84 going backwards from his last race.   What method he uses to do this I do not know.   But if valid, somewhere around the speed figs that keepmeinmind, unbridled honor run.   

FGdI won 2 races at 1-1/8.  One of the reassons I like him and Risk Taking. 

 

What we do know is that Japan racing is not done as fast as US racing.  

Once the tracks stop being souped up maybe an across-the-pond DIRT horse can win this.  Lani did pretty well.  I think Casino Drive would have done quite well had he not picked up that pebble and bruised his foot and scratched.   

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-14

That’s part of what makes me wonder what goes into their potential speed figures—the ones labeled fst, off, dis, trf.  They have Rombauer for example listed with a 110 for distance, tied for third in the race, but his sire and bms must not have tried routes very often with just 6.7 and 6.8 furlongs respectively.  I think those figures (6.7 & 6.8) are based on actual wins by the sire and bms but the figures up on the right are somehow based on what the pedigree says he should be able to do.  I don’t really pay much attention to the sire/bms figures.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-14

Oldbettowin said...

They have Rombauer for example listed with a 110 for distance, tied for third in the race, but his sire and bms must not have tried routes very often with just 6.7 and 6.8 furlongs respectively.  I think those figures (6.7 & 6.8) are based on actual wins by the sire and bms

 

You are right.  I think they DO get their figures from actual wins from sire and bms.

But his sire side dosage Index is 1.86.  That takes him out of having inherited much speed from his sire side chefs.   But his mare triads are 13-17-22.   That's a distance horse for sure....he can do 12F.   But his speed from sire side is not fast.  He's acutally not that fast to begin with even on his mare side.  That is not where his talent lies.  

His running style is from back of the pack, so if you think he has the 'jets' to run by tiring speed horses, then use him.  I'm not sure that is a good setup for the Preakness unless the speedier ones get wobbly in the stretch.  

I like him better for The Belmont myself.  For the KY Derby and Preakness it just always seems to me that you need some speed.  For the Belmont you need the lungs and pedigree and locomotive engines do better there?  

 

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-14

Wayne also said he knows how to train a horse and as a long shot he's DANGEROUS. LMAO.

Wayne Oh is a man's man. 

I'm not always the Pope of Racing but no one jumped on my call for the Wood.

I'm just going to take my shot.

I started to write something hilariously clever but lost it 

Wearing my Wayne Lukas sunglasses.  

pianot

From: pianot

May-14

Wish the best for you. If I understood 1/10th of what u say here I could retire again!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-14

I think they must use the progeny. Twirling Candy 23b, is the Sire. Candy Ride is Part Argentina bred-2nd sire

At 3: 1st: Malibu S (G1,7f), Del Mar Derby (G2,9fT), Oceanside S (R,Dmr,8fT)

At 4: 1st Strub S (G2,SA,9f), Californian S (G2,Hol,9f); 2nd Pacific Classic S (G1,Dmr,10f); 3rd Hollywood Gold Cup (G1,Hol,10f)

  • Dec. 2010: Set Santa Anita track record Malibu S. for 7F on dirt in 1:19.70

---

only 2 races this year with improvement  91 bris 1st 9f Aw, bumped bad at start bris 96- 3rd place blue grass

a tidbit to think about Cowboy Cal  bms a turfer ran on dirt 2nd Blue Grass

Fappiano/ Storm Cat TC  nick bred for the Classic . Needs this race to see if he should go to the belmont.

AWD is moot for this marraige imo. Like a Hang nail.imo

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-14

pianot said...

Wish the best for you. If I understood 1/10th of what u say here I could retire again!

After a few years, you start to pick it up.   Really, you would not be alone in that. 
Reading dogs is stream-of-consciousness with puns and a little Jack Keroac thrown in and maybe some movies that paul newman did.

As someone who read Gertrude Stein books and actually made it thru those, you'd have to understand that compared to her, dogs speaks very simple language.   ROTFL 

 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-14

I LIKE Rombauer.   I just couldn't decide if I liked him more or less than Midnight Bourbon.  2 completely different types of runners. Midnight has lower odds (5-1) that I believe will go lower at Post Time because so many people are 'on' him. (including some outfits that put out big products and have a huge following).  Midnight is 5th off the layoff......Rombauer is fresh.  So I need a horse, I will proably pick Rombauer. 

Preakness race is not my strong point, and I may chicken out playing it altogether, at least that is my feeling right now.  Maybe tomorrow I will feel differently. 

One horse I have added is Concert Tour.  I'm not "sure" he can get the distance in time, but I do know he was on the vets list at OP, so I can't help but think he will improve here.  

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