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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 49516 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-14

I LIKE Rombauer.   I just couldn't decide if I liked him more or less than Midnight Bourbon.  2 completely different types of runners. Midnight has lower odds (5-1) that I believe will go lower at Post Time because so many people are 'on' him. (including some outfits that put out big products and have a huge following).  Midnight is 5th off the layoff......Rombauer is fresh.  So I need a horse, I will proably pick Rombauer. 

Preakness race is not my strong point, and I may chicken out playing it altogether, at least that is my feeling right now.  Maybe tomorrow I will feel differently. 

One horse I have added is Concert Tour.  I'm not "sure" he can get the distance in time, but I do know he was on the vets list at OP, so I can't help but think he will improve here.  

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-15

Midnight is the favorite right now at 5-2.  Rombauer is 11-1 but they’re all between 5-2 and 18-1.

I think I’m just going to put $20 on Rombauer and enjoy the race without getting too stressed out.  My order for Haskins’ contest:  Rombauer-Concert Tour-Medina Spirit-Midnight Bourbon-Unbridled Honor-Ram-Crowded Trade-Risk Taking-Keepmeinmind-France Go De Ina.

In reply toRe: msg 360
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-15

off to a bad start.  One of my picks for race 1 Market Cap fell out of the gate, lost rider.  
Hope the #1 beat hozier, I'll be good if that happens.   edit:  Yay!  it did happen

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-15

That's on paper as you know, 3rd time out doesn't guarantee a forward move.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-15

To all..The third time cap axiom is. Third time back, third time on a drop 

In claiming price or class  

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-15

For sure.  Sometimes I like to take races and works together and try to get a feel for how the horse is feeling headed into a race.  I label the works slow, par, or fast.  For example, over 1:01 and over for a 5 furlong work is kind of slow, 1:00 to 1:01 is par, and under 1:00 is fast.  Of course some trainers always want to work them fast but you can kind of get a look at the big picture.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-15

: ) Yawn, West Coaster just got up. Race 5.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-15

Went to cigar shop. Guys pooled in $. Set up for booze and gars.

Outdoors.

I don't drink. Stay sharp.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-16

DogsUp said...

The number of combinations that are possible with 20 numbers is 1,048,575. 
Winter said

Many people play / gamble at all different kinds of things, yet they don't know much about the odds related to the game they are engaging in.  .
In poker, for instance,  a royal straight flush is around 0.000154% or 1 in 650,000.   

Dogs Hoofnote

There is a difference in looking at the math though.

The math for the 20 horse field is exactly. And for one specific occurrence.

And...The more perfect the handicapping and understanding of the outcome; the gross number of possibilities factor could be diminished to having a Superfecta straight in a 20 horse field.

--------------

The poker number is an extrapolate of 650,000 separately occurrences / hands delt.

And for the sake of example let's say a casino opens its doors first day and there could be a royal straight flush or there is the possibility it could neher happen

  • Edited May 16, 2021 1:22 pm  by  DogsUp
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