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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 49509 views.
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-15

Midnight is the favorite right now at 5-2.  Rombauer is 11-1 but they’re all between 5-2 and 18-1.

I think I’m just going to put $20 on Rombauer and enjoy the race without getting too stressed out.  My order for Haskins’ contest:  Rombauer-Concert Tour-Medina Spirit-Midnight Bourbon-Unbridled Honor-Ram-Crowded Trade-Risk Taking-Keepmeinmind-France Go De Ina.

In reply toRe: msg 360
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-15

off to a bad start.  One of my picks for race 1 Market Cap fell out of the gate, lost rider.  
Hope the #1 beat hozier, I'll be good if that happens.   edit:  Yay!  it did happen

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-15

That's on paper as you know, 3rd time out doesn't guarantee a forward move.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-15

To all..The third time cap axiom is. Third time back, third time on a drop 

In claiming price or class  

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-15

For sure.  Sometimes I like to take races and works together and try to get a feel for how the horse is feeling headed into a race.  I label the works slow, par, or fast.  For example, over 1:01 and over for a 5 furlong work is kind of slow, 1:00 to 1:01 is par, and under 1:00 is fast.  Of course some trainers always want to work them fast but you can kind of get a look at the big picture.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-15

: ) Yawn, West Coaster just got up. Race 5.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-15

Went to cigar shop. Guys pooled in $. Set up for booze and gars.

Outdoors.

I don't drink. Stay sharp.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-16

DogsUp said...

The number of combinations that are possible with 20 numbers is 1,048,575. 
Winter said

Many people play / gamble at all different kinds of things, yet they don't know much about the odds related to the game they are engaging in.  .
In poker, for instance,  a royal straight flush is around 0.000154% or 1 in 650,000.   

Dogs Hoofnote

There is a difference in looking at the math though.

The math for the 20 horse field is exactly. And for one specific occurrence.

And...The more perfect the handicapping and understanding of the outcome; the gross number of possibilities factor could be diminished to having a Superfecta straight in a 20 horse field.

--------------

The poker number is an extrapolate of 650,000 separately occurrences / hands delt.

And for the sake of example let's say a casino opens its doors first day and there could be a royal straight flush or there is the possibility it could neher happen

  • Edited May 16, 2021 1:22 pm  by  DogsUp
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-16

That’s where Dogs Up’s diary comes in handy.

In reply toRe: msg 368
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-22

I watched the 2021 Derby to review why Essential Quality just couldn't get there. As Dogs watched the race again the colt seemed to be in the contentious zone but never delivered a knockout punch 

Jockey Luis Saez in the week preceding 2021 Derby was getting media criticism on his ride in 2019 aboard the 2019 DQ Maximum Security.

Dogs sees it as Saez just didn't want to engage EQ into close quarters and chances of revisiting his reputation of rough and careless riding. 

He'll be on his home track the Big Sandy and the long and wide track and small field size should put him at ease.

Derby DQ --Documentary

https://youtu.be/f-riQFAnhBU

2021 Derby

https://youtu.be/oNNlSdkjuqA

  • Edited May 22, 2021 5:48 pm  by  DogsUp
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