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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 46240 views.
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-15

For sure.  Sometimes I like to take races and works together and try to get a feel for how the horse is feeling headed into a race.  I label the works slow, par, or fast.  For example, over 1:01 and over for a 5 furlong work is kind of slow, 1:00 to 1:01 is par, and under 1:00 is fast.  Of course some trainers always want to work them fast but you can kind of get a look at the big picture.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-15

: ) Yawn, West Coaster just got up. Race 5.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-15

Went to cigar shop. Guys pooled in $. Set up for booze and gars.

Outdoors.

I don't drink. Stay sharp.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-16

DogsUp said...

The number of combinations that are possible with 20 numbers is 1,048,575. 
Winter said

Many people play / gamble at all different kinds of things, yet they don't know much about the odds related to the game they are engaging in.  .
In poker, for instance,  a royal straight flush is around 0.000154% or 1 in 650,000.   

Dogs Hoofnote

There is a difference in looking at the math though.

The math for the 20 horse field is exactly. And for one specific occurrence.

And...The more perfect the handicapping and understanding of the outcome; the gross number of possibilities factor could be diminished to having a Superfecta straight in a 20 horse field.

--------------

The poker number is an extrapolate of 650,000 separately occurrences / hands delt.

And for the sake of example let's say a casino opens its doors first day and there could be a royal straight flush or there is the possibility it could neher happen

  • Edited May 16, 2021 1:22 pm  by  DogsUp
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-16

That’s where Dogs Up’s diary comes in handy.

In reply toRe: msg 368
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-22

I watched the 2021 Derby to review why Essential Quality just couldn't get there. As Dogs watched the race again the colt seemed to be in the contentious zone but never delivered a knockout punch 

Jockey Luis Saez in the week preceding 2021 Derby was getting media criticism on his ride in 2019 aboard the 2019 DQ Maximum Security.

Dogs sees it as Saez just didn't want to engage EQ into close quarters and chances of revisiting his reputation of rough and careless riding. 

He'll be on his home track the Big Sandy and the long and wide track and small field size should put him at ease.

Derby DQ --Documentary

https://youtu.be/f-riQFAnhBU

2021 Derby

https://youtu.be/oNNlSdkjuqA

  • Edited May 22, 2021 5:48 pm  by  DogsUp
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-23

I think it was mostly the track.  Medina Spirit didn’t really run any better than he was capable of but there were plenty of others including Essential Quality that were capable of a lot more.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-24

Did you watch both videos?

Although it looks to me as Maximum Security was independently out of control and Luis righted him. In the subsequent Derby where Luis again had the favorite,

Churchill put up a warning flag not to create another embroiled outcome.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-24

CD’s still trying to justify the DQ.  They’re batting .007 with 1 out of 147.

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

May-24

I think Essential Quality ran his race, he just lost so much ground. He ran 68ft farther than Medina Spirit. Only Rock Your World (90ft) and Dynamic One (80ft) ran farther. 

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