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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 68542 views.

From: DogsUp


 THE Conversation/Dogs/Chief..."Don't change your ticket".....Chief say: the mantra i live by in horse racing. Burned a ton of funeros changing up.

AND what's really insane is when one does in the 'last minute before the bet! Then the outcome is the exactly what was the original play.

!! It's the what was I thinking (or not syndrome).

A solution might be to Dutch hedge this propensity (politely for not being stupid with bank roll) and bet a minor ticket. 

I like horizontal bets 3,4 sometimes occasionally a five. Going into the last leg I know the 'will pays'. I generally Dutch a runner I don't have. Essentially it protects investment and especially if the leg has big field. And in some cases can even return more than the minor will pay.

Unlike the Stock Market you can't go to other holdings and use those fungible sources. But the hedge play invariably covers the runner who can take down one's ticket at the line.

 On the other hand, when looking at the will pays, look for the runner you don't have thats price is telegraphed a lower price in comparison of what is.

  • Edited April 13, 2021 2:50 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 61

From: DogsUp


You may have to cut and paste the link above/ or just shorthand it into you bowser to see Derby horse trainer jockey owner.

Easy to draw conclusions. To be covered in COLT HOT ROD CHARLIE episode.

Yet can Cox be the intermittent name on the list of usual Derby win trainers of recent times*

Now. Horse de jour is Caddo River.

Correction (Wesley Ward not CoX) Trainer Brad Cox is notorious, program screams this guy's gift is to get 2 yo young ladies to their first dance and win. First dance. Now can he do it with Caddo. Derby colt.

*Bulletin- Brad Cox is trainer of Derby sharps Essential Quality + Mandaloun.

2020 Trainer of the year. Cox ran 7th last year's Derby.

Which leads to three things.

Connections not likely to go to Derby with Caddo He's just not at least or more than ready.

If in can't win. This colt can't  find a spot on a placing ticket. Not likely to bounce forward.

  A definite leave out for win - beat me runner. A toss today 

I'll go with he'll be munching hay snacks while watching the Derby from his stall in May (d)

  • Edited April 15, 2021 11:27 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 62

From: DogsUp


Not a misprint for mile and eighth for Maiden Claiming.
Fractional Times: 24.88 50.18 1:14.98 1:40.76 the mile Final Time: 1:54.49
Split Times: (25:30) (24:80) (25:78) (13:73)
Run-Up: 80 feet

Derby Run-Up 34 feet.

2 nd year with one gate for Derby.
Winner: Bourbonic, Big A Wood. As time above 

Colt could get beat by 20+ lengths. There are no volcanos or tsunami floods in Kentucky to make this 2021 Derby a rock hard ten slow enough surface and this runner a winner May 1.

  • Edited April 13, 2021 5:20 pm  by  DogsUp
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G


Agree.  Caddo River is a nice horse but 10 furlongs is a bridge too far. 


From: Wintertrian


DogsUp said...

Handicap Hoofnote:  crunch one's selections and set the ticket construction. (Exotic)..

Don't remodel the ticket; 2nd guess it, or 2nd guess yourself. Or be persuaded by others. 

I need this tatooed to my forehead.   You don't wanna know..........LOL 


From: Wintertrian


DogsUp said...

*Bulletin- Brad Cox is trainer of Derby sharps Essential Quality + Mandaloun.

If EQ does 1/2 of what Monomoy Girl has done......Cox is not an unimpressive trainer.    

And yes, Caddo River is not a derby horse.  Hope they don't run him. 

Mandaloun I'm not sure about.  Lesser exotics at this point for me. 


From: ChiefsCrown


Dogs, i did that in 2010, the Super Saver win. I had the 3 for the tri/box ticket and for some reason i added my favorite horse for that year Jackson Bend and played a super/box instead. Well, we know where JB ended up...a lackluster 10th i believe.

Never did that again. If i lose a bet, its on me!


From: DogsUp


Wheel / key; don't box in such a large field.

With just a change of start pole/finish pole,  premier jockey,Rosario, who is riding big horses to win makes a simplistic mistake. But provides example of best jocks and race riding is differential in KDy.

Derby point++ Jocks leave a chute, embattle traffic of 20 out of the gate. Run up is 3 times shorter in some cases. Gauging when and where to ride mount is unique.

  • Edited April 14, 2021 12:06 am  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 68

From: DogsUp


Hot Rod Charlie

Team O'Neill bros start by Denny O N purchasing at auction. Then Douggie barn team turns them into Derby winners a la I'll Have Another + Nyquist.

Flav Prat rides. Won Derb on DQ of  Max S on Country House. Actually 2nd Place.

Must go out early to force runners to do more than they want before the stretch.

Flav rode as above in Derby 2017 and 3rd behind Lookin at Lee and winner Always Dreaming.

Flav 'in the Derby early and often 

  • Edited April 14, 2021 4:03 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 69

From: DogsUp


This Catholic Boy tossed Jesus Team in the big Dubai yet likes Derby runner:

Sainthood running 2nd to The King in Jeff Ruby 'Steaks. (That's the spelling Husk) they cook em and eat em.

Sainthood can handle the early going by staying say 5 horses in front (in Derby) *as he did in Ruby and comport to not fight the jock. Be along the rail and move outside. Run outside and Bob and weave through tiring horses. He got bumped in stretch in Ruby making his run. But can/did take a punch and closed gamely. 


The King & Saint ran 1:50 though. Saint could have lost 2 seconds in transit. Saint #5. Pletcher Winstar.

Carried 123. This his 3rd lifetime.

Like underneath guy can handle longer and can roll late.

  • Edited April 14, 2021 8:31 pm  by  DogsUp